Overnight the wind speeds in Hurricane Florence slowed, bringing the storm from a Category 4 down to a Category 2, with maximum sustained winds around 110 MPH. That’s the good news, and it’s seriously good news. There is still a possibility that the storm may re-intensify before making landfall, but at present it seems the coast may be spared the direct impact of record-breaking winds.
However, that’s about all the good news. The physical area of the storm has continued to increase, meaning that when Florence does reach land, it will impact a broader area. And forecasts continue to call for the forward progress of the storm to all but halt as it approaches land, leaving Florence positioned to deliver storm surge, flash flooding, and heavy rains leading to extensive flooding of rivers and streams for a prolonged period.
Despite the drop in wind speed, Florence remains a dangerous storm. Anyone still in the area who has the ability to leave, should leave. And plan on the possibility of being away for a period of days, at least as the storm grinds slowly inland.
The outer rainbands from Florence will reach North Carolina before noon today. They will be accompanied later in the day by tropical storm force winds. Some areas could still be facing high winds and rain for several days as the storm lingers in the area, moving very slowly, first to the southwest, and then turning to the northwest as it becomes less organized.
Possible storm surge predictions remain dire, particularly along the coast near Wilmington, and north of the suspected impact site along rivers leading into the Pamlico Sound. Storm surge is likely to be compounded by heavy rain leading to flash flooding. A reminder: Do not attempt to drive through water, even if it appears to be shallow.
At 6 PM ET on Wednesday, Florence had begun to weaken, but models still forecast for Florence to remain a Category 3 storm through Thursday afternoon. Instead, by 10 PM ET the storm had dropped to Category 2, once again demonstrating that forecasting the movement and strength of tropical storms is complex and even the best models can still fail to cover every possibility.
If the magnitude of those surge levels isn’t clear, here’s a handy chart from the National Hurricane Center. The areas on surge maps colored blue may seem benign compared to the regions where water can be expected to come in at roof height. They are not. This water is moving with an impossible to resist force. Even relatively shallow waters will knock people off their feet and will push cars off the road. Do not mess with the surge.