Our race ratings: Senate | Governor | House
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Polls:
- AZ-04: OH Predictive Insights (R): Paul Gosar (R-inc): 57, David Brill (D): 25
- CA-50: Monmouth: Duncan Hunter (R-inc): 53, Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): 38
- NE-02: Siena for the New York Times: Don Bacon (R-inc): 51, Kara Eastman (D): 42
- NJ-03: Siena for the New York Times: Andy Kim (D): 49, Tom MacArthur (R-inc): 39
- VA-07: Normington Petts (D) for End Citizens United: Abigail Spanberger (D): 47, Dave Brat (R-inc): 47
- WA-08: Siena for the New York Times: Kim Schrier (D): 46, Dino Rossi (R): 45
A late August SurveyUSA poll gave Hunter, who was indicted last month, a smaller 47-39 lead, while a Campa-Najjar internal from around that same time found a 46-46 tie.
This is the first poll we've seen for Nebraska's 2nd District. Siena gives Donald Trump a 46-48 approval rating, which seems high for a seat he only won 48-46. However, the spending war has been very one-sided here. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund has deployed close to $500,000 so far, while major Democratic groups don't appear to have spent anything.
By contrast, Siena's New Jersey 3rd poll feels a bit too good to be true. An early August Monmouth poll found MacArthur up 41-40, while an early September DCCC poll gave Kim just a 47-45 lead. Both parties have also been spending heavily here, which suggests that no one thinks Kim is anywhere near this far ahead. This is also the first poll of Washington's 8th we've seen since the early August primary. The poll gives Trump a 45-48 approval, which also seems very high in a seat he lost by that same margin. However, both parties are also spending plenty of money here, so both sides seem to be treating it as very much in play.
Senate
● FL-Sen: What do you do if you're trying to respond to ads accusing you of Medicare fraud? If you're Florida Republican Rick Scott, you launch an ageist attack on your opponent. Scott's newest spot begins by declaring that Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson "is confused again," making this the latest instance that Scott and his allies have suggested that the incumbent, who is about to turn 76, is mentally unstable.
The narrator then argues that, when Scott's Medicare company "was fined 20 years ago, he took responsibility," adding, "And the company paid every penny it owed. That's what strong leaders do. They take responsibility." Scott did indeed resign as CEO in 1997, less than four months after the federal investigation into his company Columbia/HCA went public, but company executives said he was pressured to step down by the board.
The rest of the ad then argues that it was Nelson who "voted to cut $716 billion from Medicare." That's a reference to Nelson's vote for the Affordable Care Act, though the commercial doesn't identify it as such. The part of Obamacare that Nelson voted for in this case was a spending reduction that largely impacted insurance companies and hospitals rather than beneficiaries. Overall Medicare spending was also projected to increase under Obamacare, so this was hardly a massive cut.
● IN-Sen: Axios reports that the super PAC America First Action is spending $2 million here to aid Republican Mike Braun.
● NJ-Sen: Integrity NJ, a super PAC run by allies of former GOP Gov. Chris Christie, has launched a new $755,000 buy against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.
● OH-Sen: This is simply one of those "we can't do better than the headline" moments:
Senate candidate Jim Renacci uses strip-club owner's private plane to campaign in Ohio
And still, several details make this story even weirder and more problematic than even the headline alone can convey. For starters, the club owner, Don Ksiezyk, didn't just loan his plane to Renacci: He's a licensed pilot in his own right and appears to have repeatedly ferried Renacci around the state himself, according to flight records that the Columbus Dispatch matched with the dates and times of Renacci's campaign events as shown in his Twitter feed.
In fact, it appears that Ksiezyk served as aerial chauffer to Renacci at least two dozen times, and possibly more. We can't know the true total, though, because Renacci's campaign has refused to offer any substantive comments, and Ksiezyk won't talk at all. However, we do know that Renacci has reimbursed Ksiezyk just $2,500 for the 13 flights he took in the first half of the year, which of course is far less than it would cost to fly this many times commercial, let alone private. (The other dozen or so flights have taken place since July, a period for which Renacci has yet to file campaign finance reports.)
Renacci's campaign against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown was already going poorly: He trails badly in the polls, and outside Republican groups are doing almost nothing to help him. But why should they? As this latest development shows, he's not doing much to help himself, either.
● PA-Sen: A super PAC called PA Values is spending $600,000 on ads against Republican Lou Barletta.
● WI-Sen: Leah Vukmir is the latest Republican to go up with an ad declaring that Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin ignored problems at the Tomah VA clinic. Vukmir tells the audience that Baldwin knew about the opioid crisis at Tomah but did nothing, and "a veteran died." That's a reference to former Marine Jason Simcakoski, who died at Tomah after he was overprescribed painkillers. Baldwin's campaign quickly went up with two response ads starring Simcakoski's parents and wife, who praise the senator and denounce the attacks.
Simcakoski's parents declare in one spot that after he died, they were "just happy that we have Sen. Baldwin to help the veterans that are out there," adding, "She brought both parties together to help pass a law named after our son, Jason, to make the VA accountable." His father also adds, "When I see these ads attacking Senator Baldwin, I just want to say 'Stop.'"
In the other commercial, Simcakoski's widow also says the family has been working with Baldwin to successfully pass a law in his name to "help regulate what the VA can prescribe to veterans, to help hold them accountable." She also calls the attacks against Baldwin using his death "shameful."
Back in February, we also took a look at the allegations that Baldwin ignored a 2014 inspection report about the problems at Tomah. We wrote back then that Baldwin had already asked for investigations into opiate abuse at Tomah from the Tomah VA, the VA itself, and the VA's Office of Inspector General. Baldwin nevertheless apologized for not more vigorously pursuing the problem (which the VA ultimately took responsibility for). As the Simcakoski family notes in her ads, she went on to pass legislation to strengthen the VA's opioid prescription guidelines, known as the Jason Simcakoski Memorial and Promise Act.
● WV-Sen: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin has launched a TV spot focused on this year's teachers' strike. Several teachers praise Manchin for standing with them as they fought for better pay and insurance benefits. One instructor then declares that Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey "threatened to have us all locked up. He was more focused on putting us in jail and less on the true problems across the state."
Back in February, Morrisey said that, while he agreed with the teachers' cause, "the impending work stoppage is unlawful," and his office "stood ready to assist and support any county board of education or county superintendent to enforce the law."
● Polls:
- CA-Sen: Public Policy Institute of California: Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 40, Kevin de León (D): 29 (July: 46-24 Feinstein)
- MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA for WOOD TV8: Debbie Stabenow (D-inc): 56, John James (R): 33
- NM-Sen: NSON Opinion Strategy (L) for Elect Liberty PAC: Martin Heinrich (D-inc): 35, Gary Johnson (L): 28, Mick Rich (R): 10
- PA-Sen: Franklin & Marshall: Bob Casey (D-inc): 48, Lou Barletta (R): 30 (August: 48-29 Casey)
- WV-Sen: 1892 Polling (R) for Patrick Morrisey: Joe Manchin (D-inc): 45, Patrick Morrisey (R): 45
This is one of the better surveys we've seen for de León in the all-Democratic California Senate race, but we don't have much to work with. A recent Ipsos survey gave Feinstein a 44-24 lead, while the GOP firm Probolsky Research had her up 37-29.
This is the first poll we've seen out of West Virginia that didn't give Manchin the lead since shortly after the early May GOP primary. The DSCC recently canceled air time for the first two weeks of October (Politico says that amounts to $725,000), so presumably, Team Blue is still seeing much better numbers for Manchin.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Republican Ron DeSantis has trailed Democrat Andrew Gillum in every single poll that's been released since the primary, and the Tampa Bay Times reports that he's trying to right the ship before it's too late by bringing on veteran strategist Susie Wiles to serve as his new campaign chairman. The Times writes that DeSantis made this decision under less-than-ideal circumstances, saying that there's a "sense of impending doom setting in among his supporters," and that his allies believe the campaign "needed an adult in the room."
Meanwhile, the DGA has sent another $1 million to Gillum's PAC, taking their total investment here to $3 million. The RGA has so far spent $5 million to support DeSantis, and they say they'll spend up to $10 million total, but that only goes so far in such a large and expensive state.
● KS-Gov: Medium Buying reports that the DGA will begin airing their first ads here this week.
● OK-Gov: The DGA aligned group Stronger Oklahoma has launched their first ad in this contest, and the National Journal reports that they're putting $500,000 behind it. The commercial ties Republican Kevin Stitt to the extremely unpopular Gov. Mary Fallin, with the narrator declaring that he called her "great" and "couldn't name a single issue where he disagreed with Fallin." The spot also adds that, even though Oklahoma teachers were the worst-paid in the nation, Stitt opposed the teacher's strike that led to a pay raise.
● Polls:
The Alabama poll was conducted for the political arm of the Alabama Farmers Federation, which is supporting the entire GOP statewide ticket. The last poll we saw was a late July survey from the GOP firm Cygnal that gave Ivey a 56-42 lead.
You know things are really bad for Schuette when he sends out a tweet celebrating being down "just" 8 points. This is indeed the best poll for Team Red that's been released in September, but it's still pretty similar to most of the numbers we've seen.
The Anzalone Liszt Grove poll is the first poll we've seen at all here since their late July survey, which gave Noem just a 46-42 edge for an office Democrats last won in the 1974 Watergate wave. It's also probably the first poll anyone has released in decades giving Democrats a lead in a race for governor of South Dakota.
Noem's team scoffed at this survey and declared that it was "done by progressive Democrats to boost fundraising as he continues to sell a fake bill of goods," but they have yet to offer any contradictory data. Major outside groups haven't spent anything here, though Donald Trump did hold a fundraiser for Noem a few weeks ago.
House
● CA-49, CA-50: Medium Buying reports that the DCCC has canceled their ad reservations in the San Diego media market from Oct. 2 to Oct. 22. Neither party has spent much money in the open 49th District, and this is another sign that Democrats feel very good about their chances to flip it. On the other hand, this is also an indication that the DCCC doesn't plan to spend much to aid Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar against indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter in the 50th.
● CO-06: The DCCC's newest TV spot begins by highlighting how police used crime scene tape to get GOP Rep. Mike Coffman out of a tough constituent event last year.
As the local NBC affiliate reported last January, Coffman held a community event at Aurora Central Library where he was unexpectedly met by a large crowd of people who asked him tough questions about health care. Local police officers ended up putting up crime scene tape in order to create a perimeter outside the building, which allowed Coffman to secretly slip out of the event a few minutes before it was scheduled to end while there was a large crowd in the lobby still waiting to see him.
The DCCC's spot begins by showing clips of the police putting up the tape and Coffman going to a car, before it shows clip of a woman asking about their own healthcare coverage. The narrator then accuses Coffman of voting "to end protections for pre-existing conditions."
● KS-02: While Republican Steve Watkins reportedly hadn't reserved any general election TV time whatsoever as recently as last week, it seems like he's scraped together enough cash to go back on the air after all. Watkins' opening spot features him standing in front of a jet and touting his military service.
● NC-02: Medium Buying reports that the DCCC is airing their first ads in the Raleigh media market on Saturday. The entire 2nd District is in the Raleigh market, and the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund recently reserved $1.4 million to help GOP Rep. George Holding against Democrat Linda Coleman.
● NY-22: The pro-Trump super PAC America First Action recently launched an ad against Democrat Anthony Brindisi, which is part of the $450,000 they reserved here in August.
● PA-07: The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that Republicans are quite worried that Marty Nothstein's campaign for this competitive Lehigh Valley seat is going very poorly. Perhaps most notably, Nothstein's campaign manager and fundraising chief quit in August, and three unnamed "people with knowledge of their departures" say they the resignations were motivated by concerned about his campaign. Several other Republicans also pointed to the huge cash advantage that Democrat Susan Wild held at the end of June, and there's no indication that Nothstein has ramped up his fundraising since then.
Even NRCC chief Steve Stivers doesn't sound optimistic. While he predicted the race would be "really competitive," he didn't commit to spending any money here, only saying his committee had "some money parked in Philadelphia that could be used for that race, and I think we're waiting to see what happens there and we may be in there."
However, we've only seen two polls here, and they disagree quite a bit about how competitive this race is. Monmouth gave Wild just a 47-45 lead earlier this month, but a Siena poll finished this week had her up 50-42.
● PA-17: Politico reports that America First Action has canceled its planned TV reservations to aid GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus, who faces an increasingly uphill race with Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb. The NRCC also recently pulled its planned ad buys, while the Congressional Leadership Fund never purchased TV time here.
● VA-10: While the NRCC and DCCC are still spending millions here, Politico reports that Democratic group House Majority PAC has canceled $1 million from its TV reservation. GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock faces a difficult race against Democrat Jennifer Wexton, and Politico writes that this move is a sign that HMP is confident about Wexton's chances.
● WV-03: Axios reports that the conservative America First Action is adding $300,000 to their buy in support of Republican Carol Miller. Last month, they announced that they'd reserved $485,000 here. Meanwhile, Democrat Richard Ojeda is out with a spot hitting Miller on the opioid crisis. Ojeda talks directly to the camera and accuses Miller of "accepting campaign cash from the very same companies responsible" for the crisis. Ojeda also declares that the Republican has "even profited from this epidemic, an epidemic that has killed thousands of West Virginians," and that she "actually owns stock in one of the companies responsible for it all."
Ad Roundup
