Jobs growth was faster in 2014 and 2015, under President Obama, than in the Trump economy.
Quarterly gains in nonfarm Employment (BLS data)
Although growth in jobs is sustained — yet actually slower than during 2014-2016 under Obama — the ups and downs in quarterly GDP (gross domestic product, or output) will likely be reported tomorrow as up 3% or more for 2018. Please see quick graphs below, on jobs and GDP.
Here is ANNUAL average job growth (in thousands [000]), since 2010 :
Millions of new jobs:
2015, 2.885 M;
2016, 2.522 M;
2017, 2.263 M;
2018, 2.453 M
The average gain in jobs (2,885,000 in 2015 and 2,522,000 in 2016) were larger than gains of the last 2 years ( 2,453,000 last year, and 2,263,000 the year before, in 2017).
A preview of real GDP to be released tomorrow (by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the Dept. of Commerce) for the 4th quarter, and full year 2018, can be gleaned from the “GDPNow” figure estimated from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. As of Feb 25, the 4th quarter estimate for 2018 was 1.9% growth. The quarterly growth rates during 2017 to 2018 are shown below bracketed.
The way the math works, with growing first half of last year 2018 (rate of growth 2.2% in q1, and 4.2% rate in Q2), and following moderate increasing GDP in 2017, the full year GDP growth can break past 3%. I estimate 3.2% GDP growth for full-year 2018, based on the 1.9% quarterly q4 estimate of the GDPNow model, as of Feb 25. It can be a little higher or lower, based on the GDP release for Q4 scheduled for tomorrow.
If it is 3%+, you can expect the White House to shout it from the rooftops.
We’ll see if everyone can eat GDP.
More figures below — unemployment, wage growth, and manufacturing jobs.
From Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, civilian unemployment rate (%), seasonally adjusted. Most recent report for Jan 2019: 4.0%
The end of the term of the previous president is marked with a tan vertical line, with unemployment tumbling to less than 5%, from approximately 10% at early in his term.
Here is the trend for African-American unemployment:
From Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, Black/ African-American unemployment rate (%), seasonally adjusted.
Most recent report for Jan 2019: 6.8%
A turnaround in manufacturing jobs is shown in 2010, after a prolonged slide.
Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics: set to “From: 1950”
Finally, for a look at earning power, here is the record of average wage growth, adjusted for price changes, % change from year earlier.
Wage growth has picked up in recent months. However, due to increasing prices for fuel, rent, etc. over the last year, earning power gains after inflation were actually healthier during much of the 2015-16 period.
Over the last 2 years, real earnings have rarely grown by more than 1% in most months.
We’ll see how the White House spins the most recent economic reports. The data tell the picture.
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