GOP Gov. Matt Bevin ended 2018 with poor approval ratings, and while he’s declared that he’ll seek re-election this year, his fellow Kentucky Republicans are openly wondering if he’ll wind up retiring ahead of the candidate filing deadline at the end of this month.
State Senate President Robert Stivers stoked the speculation during a Dec. 19 news conference, when he called on the governor to work with the legislature to improve Kentucky’s infrastructure. “Those type of things are going to have to be established by the person who has the ability,” said Stiver, “be it this governor, or if he is not successful or does not run or whatever, the next governor, to establish and set the predicate for whatever may happen.”
Homing in on these pregnant remarks, a reporter immediately asked Stivers if he was “concerned the governor might not run.” Stivers responded, “No, he said he’s going to run,” but then hedged slightly, saying, “I’m just throwing out any potential possibility.” However, last month, the Lexington Herald Leader’s Daniel Desrochers wrote that, while state Republicans largely believe Bevin will go ahead with his stated plans to seek a second term, they do in fact think “there is a chance he’ll pull out at the last minute.”
Indeed, are some good reasons to think he might. In December, Desrochers noted that, while Bevin had announced he would run again back in August, he still had not opened up a committee to raise money for this year’s campaign. That appears to be no less true today: Bevin still doesn’t seem to have set up a 2019 campaign committee.
And Bevin himself isn’t exactly doing much to dispel rumors that he’s eyeing the exits. On Dec. 20, he said of his re-election campaign, “I have said that I’m going to do that and it is my intention to do that”—far from a firm and simple “Yes, I’m running.” Even more telling, he mused that other potential candidates “don’t have to wait for me—anyone who wants to get in should get in.”
That’s a very tepid reading on the fire-in-the-belly-o-meter compared to Bevin’s fiery re-election declaration in August, when he pledged, “There was not a chance that I was going to walk away and leave the seeds that we’ve put in the ground to be trampled on or intentionally dug up by any kind of people that choose to follow behind.” But we may need to wait until the Jan. 29 filing deadline to know if Bevin is actually thinking about walking away, since he's no stranger to making last-minute decisions: In 2015, Bevin surprised most observers when he jumped into the race on the last possible day to do so.
It’s also by no means unheard of for politicians to retire just before filing closes in order to help their preferred successor avoid a serious fight, and Desrochers says that there’s some speculation Bevin could be trying to pull that very stunt. In 2008, for instance, GOP Rep. Ron Lewis attempted his maneuver when he submitted paperwork to run for Kentucky’s 2nd District again but withdrew from the ballot late on filing day. Not so coincidentally, his chief of staff, Daniel London, filed to run minutes before the deadline. If Bevin wanted to try and get some heir apparent through the GOP primary with as little fuss as possible, it would make sense if he acted like he was planning to run for re-election until the last possible second.
However, Lewis and London learned the hard way that this move doesn’t always work as intended. The NRCC had already lined up state Sen. Brett Guthrie to run in case Lewis bailed, and he deposited his filing fee literally five seconds before it was too late. Those seconds made all the difference: The NRCC formally threw its support behind Guthrie, and London dropped out a little while later. Guthrie held the seat in November, and he still represents it.
It’s nonetheless very possible that Bevin is in fact serious about seeking a second term this year, and that he’s been slow to organize for reasons having nothing to do with a lack of desire. Simply put, Bevin may be tardy because he’s still the same disorganized candidate he was in 2015. Back then, his would-be-allies at the RGA were so frustrated with what they saw as a weak campaign that they temporarily stopped airing ads on his behalf to bludgeon him into getting his act together. It’s also possible that the wealthy Bevin is planning to do self-funding and doesn’t feel the need to raise money early.
Another reason Bevin may be dragging things out is that he hasn’t settled on a running mate. Kentucky requires gubernatorial candidates to select a number two when they file, and Bevin doesn’t seem eager to run with Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton again. Back in early December, Bevin said he was still mulling whether to partner with Hampton for a second time, but while he promised a decision soon, we still haven’t heard anything since.
While Bevin seems content to keep people guessing over the next month, several Democrats are also preparing for 2019. Attorney General Andy Beshear and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins currently have the May primary to themselves, but an unnamed source told WKYT that former state auditor Adam Edelen will announce he’s in on Monday. State Rep. Attica Scott also recently said that she’s still considering.
However, we can cross off one name. Former Marine combat pilot Amy McGrath announced just before the holidays that she would not seek any office in 2019. McGrath’s statement, though, didn’t address speculation that she’s interested in a rematch with GOP Rep. Andy Barr, who narrowly beat her in 2018, or the possibility that she might be eyeing a campaign against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who’s up for re-election in 2020.
