On Monday, Democratic state Sen. Kai Kahele, a combat pilot with the Air National Guard who's flown missions in Iraq and Afghanistan, announced he would run for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District—but whether or not he'll actually face off against the seat's current occupant, Tulsi Gabbard, is an open question. Gabbard, of course, recently launched a bid for president, and when CNN's Jake Tapper asked her on Saturday whether she'd stay in the House if she doesn't win the Democratic nomination, she would only say, "We'll cross that bridge when we get there."
There is, however, a long time between here and there. Hawaii's congressional primary is not until August of 2020, and under state law, Gabbard can in fact run for both offices simultaneously. She can therefore wait to see how share fares in the presidential race before deciding whether to come home to seek re-election.
But while Gabbard is busy greeting voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, Kahele will be able to campaign aggressively in the 2nd District. And though Gabbard's many apostasies have infuriated progressives, it's her absenteeism that's looks to be central to Kahele's campaign.
In his kickoff announcement, Kahele didn't mention Gabbard by name, but he not-so-subtly threw shade in her direction by saying the state needs "leaders who put the common interests of Hawaii's people ahead of their own." He also quoted famous lines from Barack Obama: "Change will not come if we wait for some other person, or if we wait for some other time. We are the ones we have been waiting for. We are the change that we seek."
It's a message that could resonate in Hawaii, where members of the state's congressional delegation have to work particularly hard given the way the remote archipelago is too-often treated as an afterthought on the mainland. (Remember when Jeff Sessions sneered it was a mere "island in the Pacific"?) And by announcing so early, Kahele has given himself a lot of runway (sorry, sorry, but he's also a commercial pilot for Hawaiian Airlines, so we had to) for making this argument.
But even if a defeated Gabbard does tuck tail and return to run for a fifth term in the House, she'll still be difficult to beat. Limited polling has shown her very popular, and she's crushed unheralded primary opponents two cycles in a row, winning with more than 80 percent of the vote both times. Money also will likely not be a problem for her.
Presidential bids, however, always have the potential to tarnish the bidder. Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, for instance, helped alienate voters back home with his failed 2008 run, when he went so far as to enroll his young children in Iowa public schools. Dodd ended up taking literally zero percent in the Iowa caucuses, and his constituents in Connecticut weren’t especially happy with him, either: Dodd wound up retiring in 2010 in the face of polls showing him losing re-election. If Gabbard winds up similarly damaged, Kahele could have an opening.
Kahele also brings an unusual personal background to the race. He'd be only the second native Hawaiian to win a seat in Congress (after the late Sen. Dan Akaka) and the first elected from the Neighbor Islands—the more rural part of the state that encompasses all of the islands other than Oahu, which is home to Honolulu. Of course, it's very possible that Gabbard decides she's had enough of the House and turns this into an open-seat contest. In that case, what is for the moment a one-on-one contest would undoubtedly turn into a free-for-all, though since Kahele was just re-elected to a four-year term last year, he wouldn't have to give up his seat to stay in the race.