The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● 2019 Elections: 2019 may be an off year, but there are numerous important elections taking place nationwide, ranging from gubernatorial elections to mayoral races in some of the country's largest cities. Daily Kos Elections has compiled a 2019 election calendar with all the key dates for this year's major local contests, and we have a lot to watch.
Campaign Action
A trio of gubernatorial races in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi will take center stage. Over in Virginia, Democrats need to net just two seats in the state House of Delegates and one in the state Senate to take control of each chamber. If Team Blue succeeds, they'll have control of the governorship and both houses of the legislature for the first time since Gov. Douglas Wilder left office at the beginning of 1994.
Additionally, we also have some big mayoral races we'll be watching this year. Our first big election night comes Feb. 26, when more than a dozen candidates are competing to succeed retiring Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel in the nonpartisan primary. We have another crowded open seat race just a week later in Tampa, where several local politicians are facing off to succeed Mayor Bob Buckhorn. We also have big open races to watch in Dallas and Tucson later in the year, while incumbent mayors may face serious re-election fights in Fort Worth, Denver, and Nashville.
That's not all. We already have our first House special election of the cycle set for May in Pennsylvania's 12th District. We'll also be watching some countywide races, including the contest to succeed Confederate fan boy Corey Stewart as head of Prince William County, Virginia. We may also see more contests come onto the radar as events develop.
2019 will be a very exciting year across the nation, so check out our calendar to find out which important offices are on the ballot.
Senate
● GA-Sen: On Tuesday, Stacey Abrams announced she would give the Democratic response to Donald Trump's State of the Union address next week—or as Shareblue put it, "Trump to be opening act for Stacey Abrams' State of the Union response."
Abrams was invited to give this speech by Chuck Schumer, which is notable because he and the DSCC have been working hard to convince her to run against Republican Sen. David Perdue next year. Given her acceptance, and the extraordinary chance she'll now have to further enhance her already considerable profile—after the high-profile wrangling between Trump and Nancy Pelosi over the State of the Union address, it's likely to be heavily watched—it would be a surprise if Abrams didn't parlay this opportunity into a Senate bid. Of course, there's no telling, though Abrams herself has said she'll announce a decision by March.
● TX-Sen: Atlantic Media & Research (R) for Courageous Conservatives PAC: John Cornyn (R-inc): 50, Beto O'Rourke (D): 37
House
● GA-07: We haven't heard much from Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux since her surprisingly narrow 419-vote loss against GOP Rep. Rob Woodall last year, but the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says she's eyeing another bid. There is no quote from Bourdeaux or any other information about her plans. The only declared Democratic candidate so far is attorney Marqus Cole.
● NJ-03: On Monday, state Sen. Dawn Addiego ruled out seeking the Republican nomination for this race by ruling out the Republican Party. Addiego, who had been mentioned as a possible opponent for freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, announced she was joining the Democratic Party.
Kim unseated GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur last year in a tight 50-49 contest, and the GOP is going to want to target this 51-45 Trump seat. However, the New Jersey Globe writes that the Republicans could have trouble finding a viable candidate while Ocean County GOP chairman George Gilmore is under indictment on federal tax charges. Gilmore, who is scheduled to go to trial at the end of March, is a major Republican power player in this South Jersey seat. The Globe says Gilmore has been a key player in recruiting a candidate, but that his legal problems could deter potential Kim challengers.
● NY-14: The Hill's Scott Wong writes that unnamed House Democrats, frustrated with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and her allies' plans to support primaries against sitting Democratic members of Congress, are looking to give Ocasio-Cortez herself a serious challenge. However, no one has come forward publicly to say they're pushing to unseat the new congresswoman, let alone that they're considering taking her on in the primary for New York's safely blue 14th District, which straddles Queens and The Bronx.
One unnamed Democratic operative nevertheless insists that there are plenty of local politicians who could run, particularly those close to former Rep. Joe Crowley who may have wanted to run for this seat when he retired—plans that were upended when Ocasio-Cortez unseated Crowley in a shocker last year.
"A lot of people who are furious with her are Joe's allies," claims this operative, "including some named Crowley." But the only such Crowley who might fit the bill is former New York City Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley, who is the former congressman's cousin. Says this operative, "She is a woman. She's been moving more to the left. She would be someone interesting."
But would she really be? Crowley doesn't actually live in the district, and a big knock against her cousin was that he'd lost touch with the folks back home. Yet even on her own turf, she doesn't appear to be that popular. Crowley ran in the 2012 primary for the neighboring 6th District when it was an open seat but took a distant third place with just 16 percent of the vote, far behind now-Rep. Grace Meng's 53 percent share. Amusingly, Joe Crowley, who was and remains the chair of the Queens County Democratic Party even after his 2018 defeat, backed Meng over his cousin.
Elizabeth Crowley's recent electoral fortunes haven't been much better: In 2017, she narrowly lost re-election to the city council against Robert Holden, who had lost the Democratic primary to Crowley a few months earlier but beat her in the general election running on the Republican line (he never joined the GOP, though, and still identifies as a Democrat). Last year, Crowley formed an exploratory committee for a potential 2021 bid for Queens borough president, and she hasn't yet expressed any public interest in a congressional run.
Mayoral
● Manchester, NH Mayor: Joyce Craig unseated GOP incumbent Ted Gatsas 53-47 in 2017, a victory that made her the first Democrat to win the mayor's office in New Hampshire's largest city since 2003. Numerous Democratic activists have mentioned Craig as a potential opponent for GOP Gov. Chris Sununu next year, but she needs to win another two-year term in November first, and Team Red will want to give her a serious challenge.
Earlier this month, former GOP state Rep. Victoria Sullivan confirmed she was eyeing a bid against Craig. Alderman Keith Hirschmann, whom the New Hampshire Union Leader called a "longtime Republican and outspoken supporter of President Donald Trump," also said he was eyeing this race and hoped to decide soon. The filing deadline isn't until July 19, so it may take a while for this contest to come into focus.
All the contenders will compete on one nonpartisan ballot on Sept. 17, and the two candidates with the most votes will face off on Nov. 5. Several potential Democratic presidential candidates stumped for Craig last time around, and we're likely to see even more of them venture to Manch Vegas (yes, that's one of Manchester's nicknames) in the fall to help Team Blue win a race that will take place just months before the first-in-the-nation primary.