Washington Gov. Jay Inslee has been preparing a presidential campaign for a while, and even if he ends up sitting the race out, there’s reason to think he wouldn’t just turn around and seek re-election as governor in 2020.
While the Evergreen State doesn’t have term limits, no governor has attempted to seek a third term since Republican Dan Evans successfully did so in 1972. No notable Democrats have yet publicly expressed interest in running to succeed Inslee, who didn’t rule out running for re-election back in November, but there’s a good chance plenty would jump into an open seat race. We could have that open seat race very soon, since Inslee said at an event in New Hampshire last week that he would announce if he’d seek the White House “in weeks, not months.”
Attorney General Bob Ferguson has been mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate for a while, and he notably didn’t rule anything out when he was asked about it at an event this week. Instead, Ferguson said, “We have a governor right now,” and added, “I’ll let him make his decision first.”
Ferguson, a former member of the King County Council, won a competitive race for attorney general in 2012, and he was re-elected four years later without any GOP opposition. Since then, he’s made a name for himself by repeatedly suing the Trump administration. Ferguson notable attracted national attention in the first days of Trump’s presidency by opposing the travel ban aimed at several predominantly Muslim nations.
Another potential Democratic candidate is King County Executive Dow Constantine. Constantine, whose constituency includes Seattle as well as about 30 percent of the state’s population, has been mentioned as a potential candidate for years, and the local political news site Washington State Wire wrote a few weeks ago that both Constantine and Ferguson were “expected” to run. Back in 2017, Constantine won his third term as county executive by a 77-23 margin.
The Washington State Wire also recently speculated that Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz or former University of Washington Spokane Chancellor Lisa Brown could run, but there’s no indication yet if either Democrat is considering. Since that article was published, Inslee chose Brown, a former state Senate majority leader who lost an expensive race for Congress last year to Republican incumbent Cathy McMorris Rodgers, to be the state’s secretary of commerce.
We still haven’t heard any Republicans so much as mentioned as potential candidates so far. The Evergreen State GOP went through a rough cycle in November, and they may have a very tough time winning a statewide race at the same time that Trump, who lost the state 53-37, is leading the ticket.
Team Red hasn’t won the governorship since 1980, which is the GOP's worst losing streak in the nation, but they did come close to victory in 2004 and 2012 even as Democrats John Kerry and Barack Obama were carrying the state. It’s always possible that, even with Trump dragging the GOP brand through the muck, Republicans could have an opening if enough voters are looking for change after 36 years of Democratic governors.