The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● UT-Gov: We hadn't previously heard GOP Sen. Mike Lee mentioned as a possible candidate for governor of Utah next year, but Utah Policy's Bryan Schott writes that some Republicans are wondering if he's laying the groundwork to succeed retiring Gov. Gary Herbert. The speculation appears to have started on Friday when Lee tried picking a fight on Facebook with Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox, who looks likely to run with Herbert's support, over Senate Bill 54, a 2014 law that revamped Utah's primary process.
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Lee has spent years railing against SB 54, which allows candidates to collect signatures to appear on the primary ballot and avoid a nominating convention, even filing an amicus brief with the Supreme Court supporting the state GOP's attempt to challenge the law (the case is still pending). Until the law took effect, major-party candidates in Utah could only get on the general election ballot by first participating in a party convention. Under the old system, if one contender took the support of at least 60 percent of the convention delegates, they were awarded the party's nomination right then and there without a primary. If not, then the two candidates with the most support would face off in a primary.
This process gave conservative activists, who tend to dominate these conventions, a considerable share of power in party politics, and it paved the way for Lee's own Senate career. Back in 2010, Lee was one of several Republicans who challenged Sen. Bob Bennett, who had pissed off much of the conservative grassroots with his occasional bipartisan actions, at the convention. Bennett took just third place with 26 percent of the delegates, which ended his re-election campaign on the spot. Lee and another tea party-fueled candidate advanced to the primary, which Lee won.
However, SB 54 now allows candidates to collect enough signatures to just skip the convention and head straight to a primary, where the electorate is still very conservative, but less stridently so. For instance, in last year's Senate race, none other than Mitt Romney actually lost at the convention, 51-49, among the 3,300 delegates who participated. Two months later, however, he crushed state Rep. Mike Kennedy 71-29 in a primary that featured a hundred times as many voters.
Lee's not a fan of outcomes like these, and he's expressed his displeasure in word and deed for years. But while it wasn't very newsy that Lee ranted that SB 54 was "unconstitutional" five times on his personal Facebook page within a 24-hour period on Friday, he made sure to tag Cox in one post, asking him if he supports the law. Cox, who as lieutenant governor is Utah's top elections officer, has defended the new primary process, but doesn't seem to have taken the bait and gotten into a social media fight with Lee over the weekend.
Lee himself doesn't appear to have said anything about his interest (or lack thereof) in running for governor. Still, while some Republicans think that Lee's decision to call Cox out was a sign that the senator is preparing to run, others are more skeptical. Utah Policy's Schott writes that many pundits believe Lee is angling for a Supreme Court appointment or wants to lead a conservative think tank and believe he's not interested in being governor. Dan Hauser, a longtime Lee associate, also said that his social media postings were just his way of once again reiterating his support for Utah's old activist-dominated electoral system.
Still, some Republicans argue that a Lee campaign for governor run would make sense. One unnamed GOP consultant said that Lee not only despises Cox, but predicted that he's not going to be very happy in the Senate because Utah's new junior senator—that would of course be Romney—is going to generate far more attention than Lee. This operative also predicts that Lee would likely win at the state convention easily, which might make him the frontrunner heading into a primary, though Romney's own example offers a cautionary tale.
Schott also notes that Lee has sponsored a proposed Constitutional amendment that would limit senators to just two terms in the chamber. The effort stands almost no chance of becoming law, but Lee, who has always positioned himself as a conservative true believer, could hurt his standing with his base if he were to run for a third term in 2022, when his seat is next up. If he's elected governor, however, this potential problem would go away.
Schott adds that this summer's race to lead the Utah Republican Party could impact Lee's 2020 plans. Current chair Rob Anderson has pledged to drop the party's lawsuit against SB 54, which has nearly bankrupted it, but he's been thwarted by a group of dissenters. If this anti-SB 54 group, which has dubbed themselves the "Gang of 51," elects one of their allies in Anderson's place, Schott says that they could try to pass a resolution that would require any non-federal candidate to go through the convention and throw anyone who collects signatures out of the party.
While such resolution would certainly lead to more court challenges, the Gang of 51 hopes that sparking another confrontation would offer them another route to getting SB 54 struck down. Lee would be a formidable contender if he ran under almost any circumstances, but if he was able to compete under the old system where candidates couldn't avoid the activist-dominated convention, he'd be hard to stop.
While Lee has been mum about running for governor, Cox and a number of other Republicans have shown interest in getting in, and we can add a new name to the list of potential candidates. Utah Policy reported Monday that unnamed Republicans were trying to recruit Salt Lake County Council chair Aimee Winder Newton to run, and she confirmed later that day that she was considering. Winder Newton did not give a timeline for when she expects to decide.
Senate
● KS-Sen: Several Republicans have confirmed that they're considering running to succeed retiring Sen. Pat Roberts. Outgoing Gov. Jeff Colyer, who narrowly lost the 2018 primary and leaves office next week, said Monday that he was "strongly looking at" running.
Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who won a third term last year without much trouble, also said he was interested, asking reporters, "Why wouldn't you look at it?" Conservative Political Action Conference chair Matt Schlapp also says he's thinking about running, but says that he's going to wait until after CPAC's 2019 gathering concludes in early March before making a decision.
● ME-Sen: GOP Sen. Susan Collins said Sunday that, while she was "getting ready to run" again in 2020, she'll only be making her final decision "toward the end of this year."
● WY-Sen: GOP Sen. Mike Enzi turns 75 this year, and he hasn't announced if he'll seek a fifth term in 2020. When he was asked about his plans on Thursday all he would say is that he was "focused on my work in the Senate, and will announce my plans for 2020 to Wyomingites at the appropriate time." If history is any guide, though, what Enzi considers to be "the appropriate time" could be a while from now. Back in 2008 he kept everyone guessing about his plans until late April, when he finally announced he would run again.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: On Monday, former state auditor Adam Edelen announced that he was joining the May Democratic primary to take on GOP Gov. Matt Bevin. Edelen's candidate for lieutenant governor is wealthy businessman Gill Holland, who didn't quite rule out using his own money to finance the campaign. Holland instead predicted that, "With Adam's popularity and support across the state, I don't think I will need to do that," adding, "We will have the money we need."
Edelen eyed higher office a few years ago when he flirted with challenging GOP Sen. Rand Paul in the 2016 cycle. However, those plans were shelved when he lost re-election in 2015 by a 52-48 margin. That result shocked even Edelen, who later said that he saw a poll the Friday before Election Day that showed him ahead by 11.
Edelen joins state Attorney General Andy Beshear and state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins in the primary. The filing deadline is Jan. 29 and Kentucky is no stranger to last-minute campaign launches, so the field isn't quite set yet. However, state Rep. Attica Scott took her name out of contention over the weekend when she announced she wouldn't run.
Meanwhile, one Republican is about to spell out his 2019 plans, but it's not Bevin. State Rep. Robert Goforth, who was first elected in a 2018 special election, says that on Tuesday he'll be making an "announcement regarding my statewide political plans for 2019," and his website says he'll be running for governor. It's not clear if Goforth is planning to challenge Bevin, who has his fellow Republicans wondering if he will actually run for re-election, or if he's just preparing in case the governor bails.
● WV-Gov: On Monday, GOP Gov. Jim Justice announced that he would seek re-election next year. Justice was first elected in 2016 as a Democrat who said he planned to only serve one term, but he switched parties in 2017 at a Donald Trump rally.
There's been some speculation that Justice could face a serious primary challenge next year, but no one has taken any obvious steps towards running yet. Justice's re-election announcement notably was also at an event hosted by the state GOP, which could be a sign that the party establishment is on his side. So far, his only declared Democratic foe is Stephen Noble Smith, who used to lead a group of nonprofits that work to combat poverty.
House
● IN-08: It sounds like GOP Rep. Larry Bucshon could retire sooner rather than later. Bucshon said during his first campaign in 2010 that he didn't see himself serving more than 10 or 12 years, and he recently confirmed that his plans hadn't changed. Assuming Bucshon stuck to this plan (and he'd hardly be the first member of Congress not to), that would mean he would retire in 2020 or 2022. This seat, which includes Terre Haute and Evansville, backed Trump 65-31.
● NC-03: GOP Rep. Walter Jones has missed every vote in Congress since November due to an undisclosed illness, and he was unable to make it to D.C. to be sworn in with the rest of Congress last week. Jones instead was sworn in at a private ceremony back home in North Carolina on Friday for his 13th term, and there is no word on when he expects to return to the House. The congressman announced during his 2018 re-election campaign that this would be his final term, and his office recently confirmed that he would not run again in 2020 for this safely red seat.
Legislative
● Special Elections: There are two races to kickoff elections in 2019:
GA HD-05: This is a Republican seat in the far northwest outskirts of Metro Atlanta, covering parts of Gordon and Murray counties. The vacancy was created by the death of former state Rep. John Meadows just a few days after the 2018 election. Musician Brian Rosser is the lone Democrat running against a legion of Republicans. The GOP has five candidates on the ballot: attorney Jesse Vaughn; former Marine Corps. Major Larry Massey Jr.; pastor Scott Tidwell; retired mover Steve Cochran; and former Calhoun City Councilman Matt Barton.
If no candidates takes a majority of the vote, the top two vote-getters will move on to a runoff on Feb. 5. This is a strongly Republican district that went 80-17 for Donald Trump in 2016 and 78-21 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
VA SD-33: This is a Democratic seat in the suburbs of Northern Virginia, covering portions of Loudoun and Fairfax counties. The vacancy was created by former state Sen. Jennifer Wexton's election to the U.S. House in Virginia's 10th Congressional District in November. Democratic state Del. Jennifer Boysko will face off against former Republican state Del. Joe May.
While this is ordinarily a solidly Democratic district, supporting Hillary Clinton 63-31 in 2016 and Barack Obama 59-39 in 2012, Wexton herself only took 53 percent of the vote when she first won this seat in another January special election, back in 2014. May, who represented a state House district in the area for two decades before getting ousted in a primary in 2013, won 10 percent in that special running as an independent, while the Republican candidate took 38.
Boysko has served in the House since 2015 and has outraised May by a wide margin. Democrats are particularly concerned about holding this district because doing so would keep the GOP's margin in the chamber at just 21-19, meaning Democrats would need to pick up just one seat when the entire Senate is up this fall. The winner of this election will serve out the final year of Wexton's term and will likewise have to face voters again in November.