The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Montgomery, AL Mayor: Steven Reed rolled to a 67-33 win over David Woods to become the next mayor of Montgomery. Despite its rich history in the civil rights movement and large black population, Reed will become the first black mayor of Alabama's capital city. Until now, Montgomery had the highest proportion of black residents of any city in the country with a population over 200,000 to have never had a black mayor. At 60% black, Montgomery's share of the population that is African American only trails behind Detroit, Memphis, Baltimore, and Birmingham among major U.S. cities.
In addition to its historical significance, Reed's win is also politically significant. While the race was officially nonpartisan, Reed is a Democrat who will take over the office from Republican Todd Strange. Reed emphasized support for police and schools, along with bringing high-paying jobs to Montgomery as his top priorities as mayor of Alabama's second-largest city.
3Q Fundraising
● IA-Sen: Theresa Greenfield (D): $1.1 million raised
● IL-03: Marie Newman (D): $350,000 raised
● IN-05: Kelly Mitchell (R): $100,000 raised (in one month)
● MI-03: Lynn Afendoulis (R): $160,000 raised
● MT-AL: Kathleen Williams (D): $380,000 raised, $627,000 cash-on-hand
● NM-02: Claire Chase (R): $511,000 raised, $474,000 cash-on-hand
● NY-14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-inc): $1.43 million raised
● NY-27: Chris Jacobs (R): $136,000 raised, $100,000 self-loaned, $850,000 cash-on-hand
● OH-03: Morgan Harper (D): $323,000 raised
● PA-10: Eugene DePasquale (D): $360,000 raised
● TX-10: Mike Siegel (D): $100,000 raised
● TX-23: Tony Gonzales (R): $150,000 raised (in two months)
● TX-32: Genevieve Collins (R): $475,000 raised, $30,000 self-funded, $445,000 cash-on-hand
Senate
● WV-Sen: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito drew her first notable challenger in the Republican primary on Monday after Family Policy Council of West Virginia president Allen Whitt launched his campaign. Whitt leads an organization that opposes abortion rights and LGBTQ rights, and he attacked the senator over her mixed record of supporting some abortion restrictions but not all of them over the course of her congressional career.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: Market Research Insight, polling on behalf of a group of businessmen that includes The Advocate owner John Georges, has released a poll finding Democratic John Bel Edwards winning an outright 51% majority and avoiding a November runoff against Republicans Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone, who both take just 19%. The pollster's August survey had Edwards up 52-25 over Abraham, with Rispone at 19%.
So far, MRI is the only firm in months to release any poll finding Edwards taking a majority. That may be due to their unusual methodology, which assigns 90% of undecided black voters to the Democrat, meaning the remaining undecided voters are heavily white.
House
● CA-21: Former Tulare County Democratic Party chair Ruben Macareno announced on Tuesday that he will run as an independent against freshman Democratic Rep. TJ Cox. Macareno attacked Cox for district-hopping right before the filing deadline last year after Cox was originally running in the crowded race for the 10th District, claiming the incumbent has "[n]o deep roots to the valley" and that he had "tRump-like" failed business practices. Macareno joins former Republican Rep. David Valadao in the top-two primary.
● IA-02: U.S. Ambassador to China Terry Branstad, whose 22-year tenure as Iowa governor was the longest of any governor in American history, has endorsed state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks for the Republican nomination in this open seat. Miller-Meeks currently faces former Illinois Rep. Bobby Schilling in the GOP primary.
● PA-07: Politico reports that former Lehigh County Commissioner Lisa Scheller, who has previously said she's considering the race, is planning on soon joining the Republican primary to take on first-term Democratic Rep. Susan Wild. National Republicans were reportedly recruiting Scheller to run earlier this year, and she has the capability to self-fund.
● PA-08: Luzerne County Councilor Harry Haas, a Republican, announced on Tuesday that he will challenge Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, making him the first elected official to join the Republican contest. Haas faces former police officer and Army veteran Teddy Daniels in the GOP primary.
● TX-03: Attorney Lulu Seikaly, who fights against employment discrimination, is the latest Democrat to jump into the race against freshman Republican Rep. Van Taylor. Seikaly joins fellow attorney Sean McCaffity, who recently launched his own campaign, in the Democratic primary. This suburban Dallas-Fort Worth area seat has long been solidly red but shifted sharply to the left in recent years. After voting 64-34 for Mitt Romney, it went just 55-41 for Trump, and Republican Sen. Ted Cruz only prevailed here by 51-48 last year.
● TX-30: Although she will turn 85 shortly before the start of the next Congress, longtime Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson says that she'll run for "one last term" next year in her Dallas district. Johnson, whose 14 terms make her the longest-serving member of Texas' congressional delegation, has been the subject of retirement speculation for the last few cycles but has ultimately decided to run again each time.
● UT-01: Clearfield Mayor Mark Shepherd is the newest Republican to join the primary for this safely red open seat. Clearfield only contains 32,000 residents, roughly 4% of the district's population, meaning Shepherd is likely starting with little name recognition. He joins a GOP field that includes Morgan County Councilor Tina Cannon and Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's special election in New Hampshire:
NH-HD-Rockingham-09: Republican Michael Vose defeated Democrat Naomi Andrews 52-48 to win this Epping-based seat. Vose, who held a seat here from 2014-2018, will join Democratic state Rep. Mark Vallone as the two representatives for this district. Notably, Vose's original tenure in the state House ended when Vallone unseated him last year.
While Andrews did not manage to win in this competitive district, she outperformed Hillary Clinton's 2016 margin here in 2016 by 8 percentage points. Her narrow loss also matched up with the 52-48 margin Republican candidates led Democratic candidates by in this district last year.
This chamber returns to full strength with Democrats retaining control 233-166 (with one Libertarian member).
Mayoral
● Raleigh, NC Mayor: The race for mayor of Raleigh, North Carolina's capital and second largest city, will be heading to a runoff. Former Raleigh City Councilor Mary-Ann Baldwin led the way with 38%, just ahead of runner-up Charles Francis, who took 31%. The two candidates will be advancing to the next round of voting on Nov. 5.
Despite raising the most money of any candidate in the race, and having the backing of outgoing mayor Nancy McFarlane, former Wake County Commissioner Caroline Sullivan trailed far behind with 21%. The remaining 10% was split among three other candidates.
After not having a runoff in a mayoral race since 2001, this election will mark the second consecutive election that will feature one. The race will also be fought along similar battle lines. Francis was the candidate who forced a runoff in 2017 against McFarlane, who, like Baldwin, is a former member of the City Council.
