By now Elizabeth Warren’s selfie count probably exceeds 100,000. It is paying dividends, as Elizabeth Warren has surged to a big projected delegate lead in the 18 early states. The early states are comprised of the first 4 primary/caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina plus the 14 Super Tuesday states, which include California, Texas, Virginia, Minnesota, Massachusetts, North Carolina, among other states.
Last month Warren was behind in the projected delegate race for the early states, but not by much. Biden’s lead was only 55 delegates — he led 600 to 545 in the projected delegate count over those first 18 states. Now, based on new polling of those 18 states, Warren has surged ahead to a strong lead — 720 projected delegates to Biden’s 577. Sanders is projected to get 159 delegates through the first 18 states, O’Rourke 30, Klobuchar 5 and Buttigieg 3, no other candidate is projected to win any delegates:
Based on CBS News’ polls of all 18 early states the projected delegate count after Super Tuesday has Warren ahead of Biden by 143 delegates.
CBS News Battleground Tracker: Warren extends lead across early states
Warren had taken a slight aggregate lead across the 18 early states already last month, but she has extended that lead now to 6%.
CBS News Battleground Tracker: Warren extends lead in early states
Warren’s performance across the 18 early states is explained by a few important crosstabs the battleground poll found:
1. More Democratic and Dem-leaning Indie voters of the 18 early states are convinced that Warren can handle Trump attacks better than any other candidate.
2. Warren is seen as most “inspiring”, but also as “tough” and holds her own when it comes to voters who prefer someone who is “experienced”
Warren is the first choice of voters who say that having an "inspiring" candidate is very important. She narrowly leads Biden among those who say being "tough" is very important; and — seeming to cut into one of Biden's key arguments — is about even with him among those who say being "experienced" is very important.
3. Warren is seen as a fighter for “you”. Democrats see Warren as being on their side. Sanders does well here as well, Biden not so much. There is a very large discrepancy between Warren (and also Sanders) and Biden on this question. Democrats want their nominee to go to the mat for them, to fight for them. Warren is seen to be that candidate to the tune of 60%, Biden is 21% behind on that question, with only 39% believing that Biden will “fight a great deal for people like” them.
4. Warren is the candidate who most “consider”, meaning she is the top second and third choice of supporters of other candidates.
4. As of now, which of these current Democratic candidates are you considering supporting for the 2020 Democratic Presidential nomination. You can select more than one, if you wish, or none if appropriate.
Warren: 64%
Biden: 51%
Sanders: 42%
Harris: 36%
Buttigieg: 28%
O’Rourke: 20%
5. Warren draws support from previous Biden and Sanders backers. She is even with Biden on “is a candidate who would compromise to get things done” and does much better than Biden on the question that they are a candidate who “sticks to principles and sets big goals”
Warren does as well as Biden in support among those looking for a candidate who would compromise to get things done, and better than he does among those looking for someone who sticks to principles and sets big goals. Warren's continued growth has drawn support from previous Biden and Sanders backers among those re-interviewed, so it is not strictly a battle between her and Sanders on the progressive side of the party. For all three, most current supporters say they're strongly in support, particularly those backing Sanders.
One question dealt with the age issue.
34. Regardless of who you might consider, do you feel these candidates are too young to serve effectively as president, too old to serve effectively as president, or is their age not a concern?
With the top tier of candidates at least 70 years of age, the poll asked this month, as it did last month, whether candidate age was a concern for voters. Once again most say it is not. But more voters now say Sanders, who is 78 years of age, is too old. We followed up and asked why. Among those who feel Sanders is too old, more than eight in 10 worry his age would make it difficult for him to do the work required of the presidency. By comparison, among those who feel Biden is too old, more feel concern that he would be "out of touch."
Crosstabs
Methodology
Margin of error ± 1.6%
Sample 7,958 Registered Voters who are Democrats
Based on a multilevel regression and poststratification model incorporating voter responses to this survey. Early states are those expected to hold contests up to and including Super Tuesday: AL, AR, CA, CO, IA, ME, MA, MN, NV, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA.