Mason-Dixon is out with an extremely rare poll of next month’s race for governor of Kentucky, and they find a 46-46 tie between GOP incumbent Matt Bevin and Democrat Andy Beshear. Mason-Dixon’s survey, which was done for several media outlets, is the first poll we’ve seen here since August, when two Democratic surveys showed Beshear ahead 48-39. Mason-Dixon’s December poll had Beshear ahead 48-40, and apart from a June survey from the unreliable Gravis Marketing, we haven’t seen any other polls here at all.
Mason-Dixon’s new survey, while showing a deadlocked race, does have one very encouraging sign for Bevin. They find the governor only slightly underwater with a 45-48 approval rating, which is a huge improvement from his 38-53 score last year. Kentucky is a very red state so if Bevin is only slightly unpopular, he’ll have a strong chance to win on Nov 5.
Of course, as we always caution, you should never let one poll determine your view of a race, even when there is literally one poll to go off of. Hopefully we’ll see some more numbers soon to indicate if Bevin’s standing has recovered after four acrimonious years in power or if voters are still ready to fire him.
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