The round-up title today comes from this piece about Staten Island Trump voters in the WaPo:
There is confusion about the details, especially as those details become ever more intricate. There is also an evolving sense of what is at stake — not so much among Democrats, whose reactions have changed little, moving from “that mofo needs to go” in the first week to “they should nail his ass” in the fourth, but among Trump supporters, whose opinions matter to Republican lawmakers who could ultimately decide the president’s fate.
“It’s all nonsense,” one of those supporters said in the first days of the inquiry.
“I’m watching it very closely,” another said last week.
Rachel Bitecofer/twitter:
Trump was the 1st presidential candidate in history to run a pure base mobilization campaign. At any other point in history, his candidacy would have been a disaster (of course, at any other point in history, his candidacy would never have occurred, the Trump nomination is 100% conditioned on hyper-partisanship and polarization. But assuming he could be the nominee, Trump's issues (the ones he emphasized especially) and his rhetoric was a strategy that literally threw its middle finger up at persuasion strategy.
Keep in mind, when Lester Holt asked him, during 1 of the 3 presidential debates, a MAJOR event watched by millions and millions of people, whether he wanted to walk back the Obama was a Muslim stuff, Trump replied curtly "Nope." That is NOT how you appeal to Indies. Nevertheless, pure indies broke in favor of Trump.
They did this despite Trump's base-centric campaign. And technically speaking, winning the vote of these Indies, THAT's the thing that carried him to the W (other than the protest balloting and low turnout on the other side).
AP:
Faced With Impeachment, Trump Fuels Chaos With Erratic Decisions
In the four weeks since Nancy Pelosi launched the investigation, Trump has taken steps that have drawn more criticism, not less.
The most pressing question now is how the cascading controversies will impact Trump at one of his most vulnerable moments since taking office.
Already saddled by low approval ratings, he could face reelection with the dubious distinction of being just the third American president ever impeached. Though conviction and removal from office by the Republican-controlled Senate seems virtually impossible, Trump’s handling of the coming weeks could linger with some of the voters he needs to hold in order to win in 2020.
His response thus far has been pulled from the standard Trump playbook : hurling deeply personal, sometimes vulgar, insults at his opponents, questioning the legitimacy of the investigations into his actions and distracting with other jarring decisions.
well played but OTOH:
USA Today:
Buttigieg gets an Iowa boost on strength of his debate performance
Here’s where the race stands in Iowa: Former Vice President Joe Biden (19%) leads Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (18%), with Buttigieg capturing 13%, Sanders receiving 9%, and billionaire Tom Steyer, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and California Sen. Kamala Harris all tied at 3%. A considerable 29% of likely Democratic caucusgoers remain undecided.
The difference between Suffolk/USA TODAY’s summer and fall Iowa polls is more than seasonal: It is a dramatic turnaround for 37-year-old Buttigieg, who more than doubled his second-tier 6% summer standing.
WaPo:
Trump’s season of weakness: A president who prizes strength enters key stretch in a fragile state
President Trump, whose paramount concern long has been showing strength, has entered the most challenging stretch of his term, weakened on virtually every front and in danger of being forced from office as the impeachment inquiry intensifies.
Trump now finds himself mired in a season of weakness. Foreign leaders feel emboldened to reject his pleas or to contradict him. Officials inside his administration are openly defying his wishes by participating in the impeachment probe. Federal courts have ruled against him. Republican lawmakers are criticizing him. He has lost control over major conservative media organs. Polling shows that Americans increasingly disapprove of his job performance and support his impeachment.
And in a rare concession to his critics, Trump announced late Saturday that he no longer plans to host the Group of Seven summit of world leaders at his Florida golf club, folding after two days of intense criticism over having picked his own property as the venue for a diplomatic gathering.
Josh Kraushaar/National Journal:
Red Flags All Over for Senate Republicans
New polls and fundraising reports show key GOP senators in political trouble, giving Democrats a solid shot to win back control of the upper chamber.
Donald Trump comfortably carried her [Joni Ernst] state in 2016, but since then, Iowa farmers have taken a serious hit from the president’s trade war. Both Gallup and Morning Consult have found his support sinking in the state, with a March Des Moines Register poll showing even 28 percent of Iowa Republicans believing the tariffs have hurt the state’s agribusiness.
These are all major red flags suggesting Iowa is a much bigger battleground than Republicans anticipated at the beginning of the year.
The GOP’s outlook in Arizona and North Carolina is also looking gloomier. Both Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona and Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina are facing nuisance primary challengers, which makes it harder for the incumbents to consolidate their base. But the more they try to protect their right flank, the tougher it becomes to win over the suburban moderates who decide races in these swing states.
David Leonhardt/NY Times:
It’s Time for an Americans’ March
Another moment for public protest has arrived
Do you remember the images showing throngs of people taking to the streets for the Women’s March? The size of the crowds, especially compared with Trump’s inauguration, reinforced the fact that most Americans rejected Trumpism. The marches also helped inspire the so-called resistance movement, which in turn created a network of dedicated activists, as the social scientists Lara Putnam and Theda Skocpol have pointed out.
And do you remember the viral moments from the save-Obamacare movement, like the disability-rights activists visiting Congress or the citizens speaking up at town halls? Jessi Bohon, a teacher in central Tennessee, created one of those moments by connecting the fight to her Christian faith. It was one of many ways that ordinary people held up for a vision of America as decent and communal as Trump is vulgar and selfish.
“Protests work,” as Kauffman has said — not always, of course, but often “when groups are willing to be bold in their tactics and persistent in their approach within the broad discipline of non-violent action.” As Vox’s Matthew Yglesias wrote last week, public protest “serves as a powerful signal to the rest of society that something extraordinary is happening.” If anything, protest may be more important than in the past, because the elite institutions that helped bring down Richard Nixon, like political parties and the national media, are weaker today.
And overseas….
NY Times:
Despite Litany of Failures, Boris Johnson Is in Striking Distance of Brexit Success
The prime minister will try again this week to get his draft deal through Parliament. He has one key thing going for him: a divided opposition.
The situation is fluid and the math is tight, so the votes expected this week could go either way. But even if they go against him, Mr. Johnson is well placed for the general election that everyone expects soon, analysts say.
Anand Menon, a professor of European studies at King’s College London, described it as a “remarkable turnaround.”
According to Mr. Menon, the prime minister is the beneficiary of “two or three contextual changes” that put him in a better position than his predecessor, Theresa May, who failed three times to win approval for her Brexit deal.
“There is a palpable sense of fatigue about Brexit that is a lot more marked than it was earlier in the year,” Mr. Menon said. “And there is an election coming soon, so everyone is thinking of that.”
But Mr. Johnson is also lucky in that his opponents are divided, unsure of their tactics and fretting about upsetting voters who voted “leave” in the 2016 referendum.
Upsetting voters who voted “leave” in the 2016 referendum? The problem is too many in Labour prefer “leave with deal”. The should be solidy with the Lib Dems who are the remain party, but there you have it.
Finally, adventures in small town living:
The adult male bear, nicknamed Yogi by the local cops, has been seen all over town for at least a year, and is docile unless provoked. That doesn’t mean he belongs on my deck.
He proved there’s no such thing as a bear-proof bird feeder, cracking mine open like a peanut in just a few seconds of squeezing it.
He does look cuddly, though, doesn’t he?