Republicans aren’t sticking with Donald Trump out of love, devotion, and loyalty. They are sticking with him out of fear—fear that the party base will punish them if they stray from anything short of Lindsey Graham-level obsequiousness, the equivalent of the emoji 😍.
But what would happen if Republicans grew a spine and did what was good for the country, rather than what they perceive to be good for their quest for self-preservation? We asked that very question in the latest Civiqs-Daily Kos poll, matching up the leading Democrats against Vice President Mike Pence. We can compare those numbers with Civiqs’ 2020 Trump general election matchups from our late September poll.
Warren |
48 |
Warren |
46 |
Trump |
44 |
Pence |
43 |
Sanders |
46 |
Sanders |
46 |
Trump |
44 |
Pence |
43 |
Biden |
47 |
Biden |
46 |
Trump |
43 |
Pence |
43 |
The net difference between our Trump numbers and our Pence numbers is at most a single point. There’s a little more uncertainty with Pence on the ticket, but that could easily be statistical noise. Furthermore, the Republican base, that group of die-hard Trump supporters that Republicans fear so much? They are just about as firmly behind Pence as they are Trump.
Republicans
Warren |
6 |
Warren |
4 |
Trump |
90 |
Pence |
89 |
Sanders |
4 |
Sanders |
3 |
Trump |
91 |
Pence |
90 |
Biden |
7 |
Biden |
5 |
Trump |
89 |
Pence |
89 |
The way those numbers match up is eerie. Whether it’s Trump or Pence on the ballot, the difference is insignificant. “Generic Republican” would likely poll the same. Trump doesn’t have extra juice.
One last point: It can be easy to look at those top lines and think, “Warren is ahead by four, we got this!” To be very clear, to the point of being alarmist: Democrats run up the popular vote numbers in California and New York. Texas is tightening, so there is no big-state equivalent on the Republican side. The battleground state-by-state picture is just as tight as it was in 2016. Nothing much has changed. This race will be be won in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, and yes, Omaha, Nebraska. (Trump is virtually guaranteed the Maine rural Electoral College vote, so we need to offset that one with the Nebraska Electoral College vote in the Omaha-based congressional district.)
This contest will be tight as F, no doubt about it.
But it’s also clear that it will be just as tight if Pence is on the ticket. Republicans think self-preservation means sticking with Trump no matter how corrupt and compromised he is. That’s just not true. They can be just as competitive with Mike Pence.