Late on Sunday evening, freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill announced she would resign from Congress after less than a year in office, victimized by revenge porn she accused her estranged husband and "hateful political operatives" of circulating.
Last week, the House Ethics Committee launched an investigation into claims that Hill had engaged in a sexual relationship with a congressional staffer, an allegation that first surfaced on a pro-Trump site that also published intimate photos of the congresswoman.
Hill denied the relationship, which would have violated House rules governing members' conduct, though she did acknowledge she had had a relationship with a campaign staffer during what she described in a letter to constituents last week as "the final tumultuous years of my abusive marriage." Hill added, "I know that even a consensual relationship with a subordinate is inappropriate, but I still allowed it to happen despite my better judgment." (Such a relationship would not have fallen under the purview of the Ethics Committee.)
It was, however, the prospect that more private materials would become public that drove Hill from office. In her resignation letter, Hill wrote, "I know that as long as I am in Congress, we'll live fearful of what might come next and how much it will hurt." One Republican operative boasted that he was in possession of over 700 such photos and messages.
In a video she released on Monday, Hill pledged, "I will also take up a new fight: I will fight to ensure that no one else has to live through what I just experienced." She went on, "Some people call this electronic assault, digital exploitation. Others call it revenge porn. As a victim of it, I call it one of the worst things we can do to our sisters and our daughters." Hill concluded by saying "I will not allow my experience to scare off other young women or girls from running for office."
It's a stunning end to what had looked like a very promising career. Hill, an advocate for the homeless, kicked off a bid for California's 25th Congressional District in early 2017. At the time, she was just 30 years old and had never run for office before. But she proved to be both a strong campaigner and an astonishing fundraiser, allowing her to defeat a trio of fellow Democrats for the right to take on two-term GOP Rep. Steve Knight.
Riding the 2018 blue wave, Hill wound up smashing Knight by almost 9 points, winning 54.4 to 45.6. She was aided by the fact that Knight's district, located in the northern Los Angeles suburbs (including Santa Clarita, Palmdale, and Simi Valley), had been trending rapidly toward Democrats: After voting for Mitt Romney by a narrow 50-48 margin in 2012, it went for Hillary Clinton 50-44 four years later.
Hill quickly became a favorite of Nancy Pelosi, earning a spot on the speaker's whip team and securing the role of vice chair on the powerful House Oversight Committee. She was also elected as freshman class representative alongside Colorado Rep. Joe Neguse. Given her age and popularity, it would not be surprising to see Hill return to politics one day; in her video, Hill ended by asking supporters to "join me on the next ride."
Now, though a special election will ensue, and one Democrat has already kicked off a bid with great intensity. Assemblywoman Christy Smith, who like Hill flipped a seat long held by the GOP last year, joined the race Monday morning with a slate of major endorsers backing her play, including Rep. Jimmy Gomez, who represents downtown L.A., as well as state Controller Betty Yee, state Treasurer Fiona Ma, Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, and Los Angeles County Supervisor Sheila Kuehl.
Smith also said she's locked down enough support from California Democratic Party delegates to earn the state party's official endorsement. Smith has another advantage as well: She already represents 55% of the 25th District.
Of course, that may not deter other Democrats from entering the race, and at least one big name is reportedly considering, Secretary of State Alex Padilla. According to CBS, Padilla lives in the district, though the seat he represented in the state Senate from 2006 to 2014 lies to the south. Last year, Padilla carried the 25th 54-46 amidst a dominant 64-36 statewide win.
Writing at Roll Call, Nathan Gonzales also name-drops freshman state Sen. Henry Stern and attorney Bryan Caforio, who lost to Knight 53-47 in 2016, then got edged out 21-18 by Hill in last year's primary. (Incidentally, fourth-place finisher Jess Phoenix has said no to another go.) Politico's Ally Mutnick, meanwhile, mentions Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides, who worked at NASA during the Obama years.
As for Republicans, Knight has said that he's "more than considering" a comeback bid and promised a decision "very quickly." However, Knight also intimated he might stay out because some "fine candidates" are already running, though he may be overstating the case somewhat.
The GOP field is now down to two options after nonprofit executive Suzette Martinez Valladares, a once-touted NRCC recruit, bailed last month. The remaining contenders are Navy veteran Mike Garcia and Lancaster City Councilor Angela Underwood-Jacobs. Garcia raised $230,000 in the third quarter and, thanks to $126,000 in earlier self-funding, had $355,000 in the bank. Underwood-Jacobs brought in just $23,000 and had $188,000 left over. (To put those figures in context, Hill raised $601,000 during the same timeframe.)
It's also not yet clear when the special election would be held. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has 14 days to order an election after the seat becomes vacant, but Hill hasn't officially resigned yet and hasn't said when she would. Once she does, though, and Newsom issues his proclamation, the election must take place within 126 and 140 days, with a primary nine weeks earlier.
It's possible, then, as analyst Rob Pyers notes, that the primary could be consolidated with the state's Super Tuesday primary on March 3. That would be a boon for Democrats, given that voters will likely turn out in droves to support their favored presidential hopefuls, and could allow the party to win the seat outright on that day.
While all candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot, just as they do in California's regular primaries, a runoff can be averted in a special election if the winner takes a majority in the first round. If not, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to a second round of voting.
