Oops. Plead the 5th? Gordon Sondland is having a heck of a morning.
Trump's options for winning a second term are narrowing
The tumultuous impeachment hearings and the string of GOP election losses this fall underline the electoral risks Republicans are courting as they allow President Donald Trump to refashion the party in his combative image.
In overlapping ways, the election results and the hearings -- in particular Trump's characteristically belligerent response to them -- have highlighted each of his three greatest potential electoral vulnerabilities in 2020, as well as the offsetting strengths that may allow him to surmount those weaknesses.
The three biggest challenges looming in 2020 for Trump, many analysts agree, are:
- The recoil from his definition of the Republican Party in white-collar suburbs, including many that previously leaned toward the GOP.
- A feedback loop in which his efforts to mobilize turnout among his core supporters are producing an offsetting turnout surge among key Democratic groups, particularly African Americans.
- An unremittingly confrontational personal style that appears to be alienating a broad swath of female voters, including some of the non-college white women who helped drive his 2016 victory. That behavior was exemplified by Trump's tweet last week attacking former US Ambassador to the Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch in bitterly personal terms.
Trump's principal political assets on the other side of the ledger are his success at consolidating and energizing the Republican base and deepening the GOP's dominance among white voters who live outside of major population centers, identify as evangelical Christians or lack college degrees, especially the men in each of those groups.
Jimmy Finkelstein, the owner of The Hill, has flown under the radar. But he's played a key role in the Ukraine scandal
James "Jimmy" Finkelstein, the owner of The Hill newspaper, is not a widely known media executive, but he is one of the era's most consequential.
Finkelstein resides at the nexus of President Trump, Rudy Giuliani, and John Solomon, the now-former executive at The Hill and current Fox News contributor who
pushed conspiracy theories about Ukraine into the public conversation.
While Solomon has received significant media attention for his work at The Hill, Finkelstein has stayed out of the headlines, despite having himself played a crucial role
in the saga.
"Sure, we were assholes, but hey, a better man than us was up to the challenge." That’s a hell of a defense there, Gym.
FiveThirtyEight:
Most Americans Think Trump Committed An Impeachable Offense
The initial wave of our survey found that even before articles of impeachment against Trump have been drafted, 56 percent of Americans agree that he has committed an impeachable offense. (We didn’t ask whether respondents believe he should be impeached or removed from office as a result.)
Unsurprisingly, though, there’s an enormous gulf between Republicans and Democrats. Democrats are nearly unanimous in their belief that Trump has committed an impeachable offense, whereas 4 out of 5 Republicans believe that he hasn’t.1
That doesn’t mean, though, that there isn’t room for public opinion to shift as the hearings move forward. The survey also indicated, crucially, that a significant chunk of Americans are still persuadable when it comes to impeachment. While 42 percent of respondents say they are absolutely certain about their position on impeachment, about a quarter still say they’re either “somewhat” or “not at all certain” about whether Trump committed an impeachable offense.
Within this narrower universe of people who haven’t fully made up their mind, respondents who said they currently don’t believe Trump’s behavior is impeachable were especially likely to say they’re not at all certain about their position. It’s important not to read too much into this, since we’re talking about a relatively small slice of the public2 but it suggests that there’s still room for movement among at least some people who aren’t yet on Democrats’ side.
Aaron Blake/WaPo:
6 takeaways from Alexander Vindman’s and Jennifer Williams’s testimony
The Washington Post previously reported that the readout was drafted before the call took place and wasn’t corrected afterward. But that’s two indications that corruption was supposed to be brought up on the call, and Trump didn’t do it.
David Holmes, a U.S. official who was in Ukraine, also testified last week that Gordon Sondland, the U.S. ambassador to the European Union, told him that Trump didn’t “give a s---" about Ukraine and just wanted his specific investigations.
Lloyd Grove/Daily Beast:
How Soledad O’Brien Became CNN and the Mainstream Media’s Most Outspoken Critic
“What drives me more nutty than the president—who I think is obviously a terrible human being in a lot of ways—is the way in which the media does not know how to handle him,” she said. “Quoting people who are saying lies is a really bad strategy. When President Trump says the moon is made of cheese, well, it’s not,” she continued, speaking metaphorically.
“What drives me really crazy is to see all the mistakes the media makes around [the problem of], how do you report on somebody who’s a liar, who won’t hold press conferences in a place where you can ask real questions?” O’Brien continued. “How do you use your access? Every so often, someone writes a story about Ivanka that sounds like it’s been written by Ivanka. And you can tell that this is the access piece, so you can get that little drip, drip, drip that she’s giving.”
Chris Murphy, Pat Toomey and Joe Manchin/USA Today:
We're ready to resume bipartisan gun background check talks with Trump anytime
In the sleepy hamlet of Sandy Hook, Connecticut, a disturbed young man needed only five minutes to murder 20 first-graders and six educators. In Philadelphia, this year is on track to end with the city suffering more homicides, most of them perpetrated with a gun, than any other year in the past decade. In rural West Virginia, suicides are on the rise, with the firearm as the common method of choice. In under a week, we’ve seen shootings in Santa Clarita, San Diego and Fresno, California; in Pleasantville, New Jersey; and, just this Monday, in Duncan, Oklahoma.
Whether it be the headline-grabbing mass shootings or the lower profile day-by-day gun homicides and suicides, mass shootings and violent gun crimes are tragic American problems. And while no law can stop all acts of violence, Congress’ total silence in the face of this emergency is unacceptable.
NPR:
Americans Overwhelmingly Say Impeachment Hearings Won't Change Their Minds
Half of Americans said they approve of the impeachment inquiry — about the same as the poll found last month. Respondents are also split on whether they think Trump should be impeached and removed from office.
But 65% of Americans say they can't imagine any information or circumstances during the impeachment inquiry where they might change their minds about their position on impeachment. And 30% say yes, it's possible.
In my mind, the 30% is bigger than the 65% and here’s why: ask any political consultant if they think that ‘30% in play’ in a tight race is good or bad. work on them and a decisive break will equal a landslide.
Gallup:
Democrats Thinking Strategically About 2020 Nominee Choice
There are too few conservative Democrats in this survey to analyze, but liberal and moderate Democrats' views on this question are similar: 67% of liberals and 57% of moderates say they prefer a candidate who can beat Trump, even if that person differs from them on almost all issues.
Democrats and Republicans were not quite this practical in their preferences for a candidate in recent elections.
-
In December 2003, as Democratic candidates were assembling for the chance to deny George W. Bush a second term, 50% of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they would rather have a nominee who agrees with them on the issues; 44% were focused on someone who could defeat Bush. A month later, Democrats' priorities had switched, but even then, a smaller majority than in 2019 -- 55% -- opted for electability.
-
In September 2011, Gallup found 53% of Republicans and Republican leaners wanting the GOP to nominate the person best able to beat Barack Obama in the 2012 election, while 43% wanted someone who shared their positions on issues.
Biden Seen as Most Electable
As of now, 51% of Democrats believe former Vice President Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are a distant second at 16% and 15%, respectively.