Renewable Friday is expanding to every weekday, starting today. Goldman-Sachs called Peak Coal in 2013, but that was while India and China were planning on building lots more coal plants. So we don't know for sure that the current drop is Peak Peak Coal, the last peak ever. But we do know that the Bucky Fuller trim tabs were set quite a while ago, and the national rudders have been coming around, even in the worst cases, India and China. Coal in the rest of the world including the US has been in decline for years.
Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality.
Queen, Bohemian Rhapsody, 1975
Well, let's see what we have.
Before
Renewable Friday: India Since COP21
2019
The BBC reported
Coal: Is this the beginning of the end?
The reduction is estimated to be more than the power generated from coal in Germany, Spain and the UK combined.
It is projected to drop by 3% - which is a fall of 300 terawatt hours.
The report by three energy experts - published in the online journal Carbon Brief - draws on energy sector data from around the world for the first seven to 10 months of the year.
Carbon Brief: Analysis: Global coal power set for record fall in 2019
The projected record is due to…
- Record falls in developed countries, including Germany, the EU overall and South Korea, which are not being matched by increases elsewhere. The largest reduction is taking place in the US, as several large coal-fired power plants close.
- A sharp turnaround in India, where coal power output is on track to fall for the first time in at least three decades.
- A flattening of generation growth in China.
The global decline means an economic hit for coal plants due to reduced average running hours, which are set to reach an all-time low.
Over the preceding two years 2017-2018, reductions in coal generation in the US and EU have been offset by increases elsewhere, particularly in China.
This year, however, the fall in developed economies is accelerating, while coal generation in India and China is slowing sharply, precipitating a global reduction.
The coal industry and its print outlets are still in deep denial of these facts, but I won't bother you with the Coal/Unnatural Gaslighting details today. Industry gaslighting is going to be a regular topic here in its own write. (H/T John Lennon)
Our next step is COP25, starting today in Madrid. It is set to review progress under the first Global Warming agreement, the Paris Accords from COP21. Can you believe that that was only four years ago? Back then it was a big deal to get India and some others into the agreement at all. Nicaragua and Syria didn't come in until after our esteemed (and now heavily pressed) President announced the plan to take the plan to take the US out, as of the week after the 2020 elections.
Now we have examples of how to do it, and how not to do it, from every country in the world.
Next
There will be a lot of talk at COP25 in Madrid. Then there will be a lot of new national climate plans published. There will be a lot of denial, and a lot of science, and a lot of activism.
Also Carbon Brief: In-depth Q&A: How ‘Article 6’ carbon markets could ‘make or break’ the Paris Agreement
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained
Way too much to cover at one time. That's why we are going to five days a week, and looking for more writers to join us and our community. You don't have to be an expert on tech or writing. You just need an eye for significant news. We can teach you the mechanics, including how to back up the news with facts. In fact, that will be an upcoming Renewable Day with a Y in It Diary.