The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● GA-14, GA-Sen-B: Georgia Rep. Tom Graves announced his retirement on Thursday, making him the 21st Republican to decline to seek re-election to the House next year. With his departure, the GOP is now breaking the record-smashing pace of retirements it set just last cycle.
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Graves, just 49 years old, first came to Congress in 2010, when he won a special election to replace fellow Republican Nathan Deal, who resigned in order to pursue his ultimately successful bid for governor (and to short-circuit an ethics investigation by the House). Then a state representative, he defeated state Sen. Lee Hawkins in an all-GOP runoff by a 56-44 margin. Safely ensconced in a rural district in the state's northwest corner that's long given Republican presidential candidates more than 70% of the vote, Graves never faced anything resembling a serious challenge for the rest of his career.
While not particularly lengthy, Graves' service made him the most senior Republican in Georgia's House delegation. In a letter to constituents, Graves didn't offer much in the way of an explanation for his retirement, saying only that he was "entering a new season in life" and wanted to "join my family in their new and unique journeys."
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Tia Mitchell reported that Graves' announcement triggered "speculation" that he could challenge newly appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler, and Graves' campaign didn't answer questions about his plans. However, in his letter, Graves wrote that "the time has come for me to pass the baton," which is not typically the kind of thing someone interested in higher office says.
In terms of raw totals, the number of GOP retirements is running slightly behind where it was in early December of 2017. However, because the Republican caucus is so much smaller now than it was then, on a percentage basis, the GOP is leaving a greater proportion of its seats open. While another member of his own party will assuredly fill his seat, Graves' decision to quit once again reinforces the perception that even House Republicans feel pessimistic about their chances of winning back the speaker's gavel.
Senate
● GA-Sen-A, GA-Sen-B: Former acting U.S. Attorney General Sally Yates has never sounded very interested in running for Senate, but after Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson announced he'd resign at the end of the year, some Democrats had hoped she might be persuaded nonetheless to seek his seat. Yates, however, seems to have just snuffed out those hopes.
In a new interview with former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara, who outright begged her to jump in, Yates said, "Running for Senate, that's just not something that's ever really felt like me," adding that "you kind of know what feels right and true, and what doesn't. And that doesn't feel right to me."
That's almost exactly what she said last year when asked about the possibility of challenging Republican Sen. David Perdue for Georgia's other seat. "I just have to confess running for office is just not anything I've ever felt drawn to," said Yates at the time. "You know what feels like you or doesn't."
Yates became an instant hero to progressives when she refused to enforce Donald Trump's first Muslim travel ban, a move that prompted Trump to fire her after she'd served as acting attorney general for just 10 days. Yates is now a partner at an Atlanta-based law firm, though she told Bharara, "My heart is in public service. I can't hide that. I hope that maybe some day I'll get a chance to be in public service again."
● IA-Sen: Businessman Eddie Mauro, one of several Democrats running for Senate in Iowa, is launching a reported six-figure TV and digital buy, with ads that criticize Republican Sen. Joni Ernst on guns. Mauro attacks Ernst for thinking "it's okay to run ads glorifying guns" as footage of Ernst firing a handgun briefly appears on-screen, and says she's "afraid to stand up to the NRA."
Gubernatorial
● NH-Gov: Republican Gov. Chris Sununu has reported raising $467,000 for the six-month period stretching from June 3 to Dec. 2, but his best-funded Democratic challenger, state Senate Majority Leader Dan Feltes, says the $369,000 he brought in during this time period has set a record for a non-incumbent. The other Democrat running, Executive Councilor Andru Volinsky, raised $69,000 in the same timeframe.
Sununu also leads the way in cash-on-hand, with $501,000, while Feltes has $357,000 in the bank and Volinsky $94,000. While New Hampshire is famous (or infamous) for its first-in-the-nation presidential primary, its primaries for other offices are not until Sept. 8, making them some of the latest. That means Volinsky and Feltes have another nine months to duke it out before voters will choose a nominee, with the winner facing a two-month sprint against the incumbent at the end.
House
● FL-15: Former state Rep. Neil Combee has declined to seek a rematch with beleaguered Rep. Ross Spano in next year's GOP primary and instead will run for a seat on the Polk County Commission, where he served 15 years ago. Combee, however, still took the time to blast Spano, who is under investigation by the Department of Justice for allegedly violating campaign finance laws. "It's black and white. It's not gray," Combee said of Spano's actions, calling them "actually crimes."
While no other Republicans have expressed a desire to challenge Spano, Florida's filing deadline is not until April 24. That means there's plenty of time for further legal developments to spark someone's interest. Meanwhile, a pair of Democrats, state Rep. Adam Hattersley and former local TV news anchor Alan Cohn, are hoping to feast on a wounded Spano.
● NC-06, NC-Sen: The National Journal's Kirk Bado reports that GOP Rep. Mark Walker will either primary Sen. Thom Tillis or wait until 2022 to run for the House again when district lines are redrawn following the 2020 census. (In addition, Sen. Richard Burr has said he won't seek re-election in '22, making that an option as well.) According to new calculations from Daily Kos Elections, the new 6th District voted 59-38 for Hillary Clinton, rendering it practically unwinnable for the GOP. North Carolina's filing deadline is Dec. 20, so Walker will have to make up his mind soon.
● NY-22: This is gonna be awkward: Rep. Steve Scalise, the number two Republican in the House, just gave his endorsement to ex-Rep. Claudia Tenney, but at least one outlet previously reported that another candidate in the GOP primary, Broome County District Attorney Steve Cornwell, was the preferred choice of D.C. Republicans.
What makes this even more amusing is that Tenney herself has claimed that the NRCC recruited her for a rematch with Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi, even going so far as to say, "They know that I am the only one who can win it." Given what a tire-fire of a candidate Tenney's always been—she managed to lose last year even though Donald Trump had carried her seat by a wide 55-39 margin—we could only guffaw at her assertions.
Cornwell, however, raised a paltry $48,000 in the third quarter of the year, so perhaps Republicans figure the doofus they know is better than the laggard they don't. Tenney, however, hasn't yet filed any finance reports and got walloped in fundraising by Brindisi last year. Anyhow, expect a chippy primary: Tenney recently crashed an interview Cornwell was giving on local radio, calling in so that the two could whale on each other. Fun times!
● WA-10: Two Democrats have already expressed interest in succeeding Rep. Denny Heck, who announced Wednesday that he'd retire next year.
State Rep. Beth Doglio says she's "seriously considering" a bid and could make an announcement Friday, when she's holding a fundraiser that had been planned to support her re-election to the legislature. Meanwhile, Phil Gardner, who is Heck's district director, says he's also weighing a run. At 28, Gardner would be the first person born in the 1990s ever elected to Congress, and he'd also be the first LGBTQ person to represent Washington in the House.
The News Tribune's James Drew also mentions a host of other potential Democrats, including state Superintendent of Public Instruction Chris Reykdal; state Reps. Laurie Dolan, Mari Leavitt, and Christine Kilduff; and Suzi Levine, a former Obama ambassador to Switzerland and current member of Gov. Jay Inslee's cabinet; plus one Republican, state Sen. Steve O'Ban. Politco adds in another Democrat, Olympia Mayor Cheryl Selby, as a possibility.
Two candidates have already ruled out the race, however: Democratic state Sen. Sam Hunt and Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman both quickly said they were not interested after news of Heck's departure broke.
