The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-Sen: Democrat MJ Hegar, a 2018 House candidate who made waves last cycle with a viral campaign ad showcasing her inspiring life story as an accomplished military combat pilot, told the Texas Tribune that she was considering taking on Republican Sen. John Cornyn next year. Hegar said she would likely defer to 2014 gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis if the latter chose to run, and Davis herself said she hasn't "ruled anything out." However, after Davis lost by a 59-39 landslide in the GOP wave year of 2014, top Democrats may prefer to look elsewhere for a 2020 Senate nominee.
Campaign Action
While Hegar ultimately lost in the 31st District by 51-48 to Republican Rep. John Carter, that was an impressive performance in a congressional district that had backed Trump by a wide 54-41 and Mitt Romney by an even more daunting 60-38 in 2012. Both of those margins are redder than Texas overall, and Hegar would have a shot at winning in 2020 if she comes close to matching that overperformance.
Hegar was a stellar fundraiser in 2018, but Cornyn isn't the sort of nationally reviled boogeyman among Democrats that Mitch McConnell or Texas' other GOP Sen. Ted Cruz are. Furthermore, Texas remains a red-leaning state despite its blue trend. However, after former Rep. Beto O'Rourke came the closest to winning a Texas Senate race in 2018 than any Democrat has in three decades, Hegar might have what it takes to put Cornyn's seat into play if she runs in 2020.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Following his campaign launch on Tuesday, retired astronaut Mark Kelly has reportedly already raised a sizable $1.1 million in his bid for the Democratic nomination in 2020. Kelly also picked up an endorsement from 1st District Rep. Tom O'Halleran, who represents northeastern Arizona as one of the five Democrats in Arizona's House delegation. Kelly is the only Democrat in the race so far, and a show of force like this may be aimed at deterring another major Democrat such as Rep. Ruben Gallego from joining the race.
● CO-Sen: Democratic Rep. Ed Perlmutter recently confirmed to Roll Call that he is indeed considering a run against Republican Sen. Cory Gardner next year, but he said he didn't know when he would reach a decision. Perlmutter briefly sought the governor's office last cycle but eventually dropped out of the crowded primary and won re-election to his 7th District in the western Denver suburbs. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff and former state Sen. Mike Johnston are already running for Senate, but the primary field is likely to grow.
● KY-Sen: Texas isn't the only state where a 2018 Democratic veteran who narrowly lost a House race could be moving onto something bigger in 2020, and Politico relays that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is "actively recruiting" retired Marine Lt. Col. Amy McGrath to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in next year's Senate race. McGrath reportedly didn't rule out the prospect, and one of her aides confirmed the meeting took place but said McGrath wouldn't reach any decision soon.
After running viral ads that gained national recognition and helped her raise millions in 2018, McGrath narrowly lost a 2018 race against GOP Rep. Andy Barr in the conservative 6th District. If she seeks the 2020 Senate seat, McGrath would likely not have trouble raising money against someone as hated among Democrats nationally as McConnell is.
However, at 63-33 Trump, the whole state of Kentucky is much redder than the Lexington-area 6th District that McGrath lost in last year's Democratic wave, which backed Trump by a comparatively much smaller 55-39. While McConnell is a much more unpopular incumbent than Barr, Kentucky's red lean has repeatedly saved the senator in the face of stiff challenges before.
It's difficult to see how McGrath or any other Democrat has a path to victory in a state that has become implacably hostile to Democrats at the federal level. However, even if McGrath faces a very uphill battle, Democrats may at at least want McConnell to be tied down with his own re-election race to prevent him from devoting his full efforts to helping defend other Republican-held Senate seats as Democrats aim to take back the majority in 2020.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Politico has obtained a Democratic primary poll from Garin-Hart-Yang on behalf of state Attorney General Andy Beshear, and it shows him with a huge lead of 55 percent in the May 21 primary. State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins takes a distant second place with 17 percent, followed by former state Auditor Adam Edelen at 7 percent. This is the first survey we've seen from anyone, and it's possible that much of Beshear's advantage stems from higher name recognition as a statewide-elected official and the son of popular two-term Gov. Steve Beshear.
● MS-Gov: The Clarion-Ledger reported on Wednesday that former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. is planning on joining the GOP primary for governor, although they don't have any direct quote. Waller had previously said he was considering a bid, but he had not given any indication of which party he would run under before he left the bench at the end of January. If Waller does join the Republican primary, that would set him on a collision course with Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, who looks like the frontrunner at this point in the race.
● MT-Gov: Secretary of State Corey Stapleton's campaign for the Republican nomination for governor got off on the wrong foot after the state ethics commission determined he violated ethics rules by announcing his candidacy in January while using his official state email address and resources, fining him $4,000.
● VA-Gov: Republican state House Speaker Kirk Cox said on Wednesday that he's not ruling out investigating Democratic Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, who is facing multiple accusations of sexual assault, but Cox said any effort by the legislature would be "very slow" and "very deliberate. It's unclear just what such an investigation could yield, since the alleged crimes took place outside of Virginia's jurisdiction in Massachusetts and North Carolina.
Meanwhile, Suffolk County District Attorney Rachael Rollins in Massachusetts says she is willing to investigate the accusation from political science professor Vanessa Tyson that Fairfax had sexually assaulted her at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston if Tyson is willing to file a criminal complaint. Fairfax has thus far refused widespread calls for his resignation and has continued to urge the FBI to investigate what he claims are false allegations.
House
● CA-15: Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell now says he'll make up his mind about whether to run for president "before April." Swalwell has previously said he would forego re-election in his staunchly Democratic House district if he launches a presidential campaign.
● GA-07: Former state Rep. Buzz Brockway's name had been mentioned as a potential Republican candidate to replace retiring GOP Rep. Rob Woodall, but he ruled out running for the House on Wednesday. No notable Republicans have joined the race yet in this swingy seat in Atlanta's northeastern suburbs.
● NC-09: Attorneys for Democrat Dan McCready have now officially requested that the state Board of Elections order a new election in North Carolina's 9th District after the 2018 election was tainted by election fraud committed by an operative for Republican Mark Harris' campaign. Harris is still demanding that he be certified the winner, but that looks highly unlikely to happen, especially now that Democrats hold a majority on the board. The board has its next hearings on the matter set to begin on Feb. 18.
● PA-12: The field of Republicans running in the special election to replace GOP Rep. Tom Marino grew larger this week when Pennsylvania Farm Bureau vice president Chris Hoffman and businesswoman Stacy Garrity, who is an Iraq War veteran, both kicked off their campaigns. They joined the list of contenders that includes state Reps. Fred Keller and Jeff Wheeland and health care executive Joseph Moralez, all of whom are seeking to win the nomination when party insiders convene on March 2, since there will be no primary for the May 21 special election.
Legislative
● Special elections: Here is a recap of Tuesday's two races:
GA-HD-176: The race to replace former GOP Rep. Jason Shaw in this southern Georgia district is heading to a runoff. Republicans Franklin Patten and John Burchett will advance to the second round of voting on March 12.
Patten edged out Burchett in this round of voting 43.1-42.5, a margin of just 22 votes. The Democrats, Barbara Seidman and Barbara Griffin, took 10 and 4 percent of the vote, respectively. Overall, Republicans accounted for 86 percent to Democrats' 14 percent, a huge margin even for this deep red district. Donald Trump won it 66-34 in 2016 and the last time Democrats contested this district in 2010, Shaw won 69-31.
TX-HD-125: A runoff is in the offing in this open Democratic-held San Antonio-based district. Republican Fred Rangel will move on to the next round after taking 38 percent. Democrat Ray Lopez will also participate in the runoff after narrowing finishing second in a crowded Democratic field.
Lopez took 19.4 percent, slightly ahead of third place finisher Coda Rayo-Garza's 19 percent. Art Reyna was closely behind these two taking 17 percent, while Steve Huerta was a distant last with 6 percent. Despite a first-place finish for Rangel, his 38 percent represents the sum total of Republican votes in this race to the Democrats' 62 percent. Lopez is the likely favorite in a runoff to be held in late February or March in a seat Clinton carried 62-38.
