With a stream of stories stating that the special counsel investigation led by Robert Mueller is soon going to end, there are a lot of possibilities. There could be a report. Or not. The next week could see a thundering truckload of fresh indictments. Or not. And the whole “investigation almost over” story could be a complete bust. Or not. But one thing is going to happen on Friday, and if some of the predictions about what happens next come true, it could be the last time the public gets a peek into the detailed workings of the special counsel investigation. Maybe ever.
As CNN reports, Mueller is due to have sentencing guidelines regarding Paul Manafort delivered to a federal judge before midnight on Friday. Those guidelines should include all the facts that the special counsel feels should be considered by the judge before Manafort receives his final sentence.
Previous court documents concerning Manafort have provided the best insight available to this point about how Mueller’s team has worked and what it has learned. That’s true in part because the charges against Manafort are so extensive and far-reaching, connecting Trump’s campaign chair to a Russian puppet-government in Ukraine and money-laundering for oligarchs bringing funds into the U.S. Another thing that’s made the case against Manafort a particularly rich source of information is that the former Republican strategist fought against the investigation at every step. His challenges to the validity of the investigation resulted in the public filing of a whole swath of information, not least of which was the news that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein had specifically expanded the scope of the investigation to include Manafort’s Ukraine-related crimes. Then, because Manafort lied in his dealings with investigators, even more information was released simply to demonstrate the nature and extent of his deception.
Paul Manafort has been such a good source of information on the Mueller investigation simply because he’s been such a bad source of truth at every stage. And now this Manafort document represents the last certain court document related to the Mueller investigation.
Yes, there could be more indictments to come. Yes, there remain an unusual number of sealed indictments on the D.C. docket, some of which could still be ripped open to reveal Russia-related bombshells. But this last Manafort filing is a sure thing, and it could be a significant thing.
In other examples of these final sentencing documents, Mueller, like many prosecutors, has put together the closest thing to a “complete narrative” of the defendant’s actions. While other documents may have specifically addressed areas where Manafort challenged the investigation, or areas where it was clear that he lied to investigators, or the specifics of the charges he faced, this final document could be the technicolor version — the A-to-Z of everything Manafort did that’s likely to keep him locked up for the rest of his life.
Of course, it doesn’t have to be that way. Mueller might choose to limit the information in Manafort’s sentencing documents. The document might even include redactions—but if it does, that in itself will be interesting, because if the latest Manafort document emerges with the level of redaction seen in previous documents, it will be an indication that, despite all the talk, there is still an active investigation into other suspects directly connected to the events for which Manafort has been convicted.
Since those actions include Manafort visiting with a known Russian agent to exchange private polling data from the Trump campaign in exchange for … something ... it will be informative if the document is not redacted. If everything about Manafort’s dealings with Konstantin Kilimnik is there en clair, free from black bars or other obfuscation, it may be a sign that the special counsel does not intend to connect those actions to a broader attempt to conduct a two-way exchange of information between the Russian government and the Trump campaign.
As with every other document or report that’s still to come, what’s in there will not be known until it’s released. The Friday sentencing memo will cover only the two charges to which Manafort pleaded guilty in September: conspiracy against the U.S. and conspiracy witness tampering. It will not cover the charges of which he was already found guilty in a Virginia trial. For these charges, Manafort could face a sentence of as much as 25 years.