Republicans are frantically explaining, dismissing, and spinning as tax refunds continue to be lower than they were before the new Republican tax law kicked in. The problem with their efforts to explain is that “In politics, if you’re explaining you’re losing,” as a Democratic aide told Politico. This year’s tax refunds are now down by an average of 17 percent, and while things could rebound, there are already an awful lot of unhappy people out there.
Republican lawmakers aren’t improving the situation by condescending to unhappy taxpayers or showing how little they understand about the way the little people see tax refunds. Sen. Chuck Grassley griped to reporters, saying, “Isn’t it kind of stupid to look at a refund, what your refund is?” Tell that to the people who count on their refund as a way to make a big purchase once a year.
Some people believe that the Trump administration shifted the tax law’s effects to try to boost people’s paychecks going into the November 2018 elections, but leaving reduced refunds in 2019. According to one former Republican aide and current lobbyist, “People were voting in 2018, so you party with bigger paychecks in 2018 and risk the hangover in 2019 and hope it wears off before 2020.” If so, it’s turning into quite the hangover. Another Republican consultant insists that the current drop in refunds is “noise in the data”—apparently forgetting that it’s also real people making noise on social media about how much they’ve lost out.
Republicans wanted to give corporations and the wealthiest people a big tax cut, which they thought they could trick working people into believing was for them. That’s not how it’s working out.