The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Former Chicago Police Board President Lori Lightfoot and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, who are both Democrats, secured the two spots in the April 2 general election in Tuesday's nonpartisan primary for mayor of Chicago. Either Lightfoot or Preckwinkle would be the first black woman to serve as mayor of the Windy City, and Chicago will also soon become the largest city in America to ever be led by a woman of color. A Lightfoot victory would make Chicago the largest city in the country to ever be led by a gay mayor.
Campaign Action
Lightfoot took first place on Tuesday 14-way race with 17 percent of the vote, while Preckwinkle edged former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley, the son and brother of Chicago's two longest-serving mayors, 16-15 to claim the second general election spot. Preckwinkle, who is also the leader of the Cook County Democratic Party, looked like a frontrunner, if not the frontrunner, from the moment she entered the race in September, but Lightfoot's rise came as much more of a surprise.
Lightfoot, a former federal prosecutor, was one of several candidates who kicked off a bid to unseat Mayor Rahm Emanuel. However, Emanuel surprised the city in September when he announced that he would retire and soon, a number of prominent politicians including Preckwinkle, Daley, former Chicago Board of Education president Gery Chico, and state Comptroller Susana Mendoza entered the wide-open race to succeed him. Lightfoot, a first time-candidate, had considerably less name recognition than many of her new opponents, and until this month, not a single publicly released poll showed her taking more than 5 percent of the vote.
However, the race changed in January when Ed Burke, a powerful alderman who has served since 1969, was indicted for attempted extortion. Burke had connections to Daley, Chico, and Mendoza, but it was Preckwinkle who attracted the most negative attention from all this. Burke's indictment alleged that he had pressured the owner of a Burger King franchise to donate $10,000 to a candidate, and Preckwinkle's campaign quickly acknowledged she was the recipient. Weeks later, the public learned that she had hired Burke's son for a nearly $100,000 per year post at a time when the younger Burke was facing two internal investigations by his previous employer.
Preckwinkle was never accused of wrongdoing and these stories weren't enough to stop her from advancing to the runoff, but they almost certainly caused her trouble on the campaign trail. Lightfoot, meanwhile, seized on the Burke story and portrayed herself as different from Preckwinkle and the other major candidates. Lightfoot used her first TV ad, which aired less than three weeks from Election Day, to argue that her opponents were "all tied to the same Chicago machine" while she had "prosecuted corrupt aldermen and held police accountable."
Lightfoot also picked up endorsements from the Chicago Sun-Times and Rep. Robin Kelly late in the race, which may have helped her stand out in this incredibly crowded field. Lightfoot's opponents also didn't devote much time towards hitting her, and the most high-profile attack aimed her way may have actually helped her.
Scott Cisek, who was Preckwinkle's campaign manager, went on Facebook days before the election and posted a photo comparing Lightfoot to Nazis at the Nuremberg trials. Preckwinkle quickly fired Cisek and condemned his post, but the damage was done. Cisek's badly thought-out message gave Lightfoot some publicity in the crucial final days and allowed her to argue she was a political outsider who was under attack by the establishment she condemned.
Lightfoot and Preckwinkle will now face off in a five-week contest that should be very different from the crowded months-long primary they just went through. Lightfoot is now one of just two candidates rather than 14, and she'll attract far more attacks and scrutiny than ever before. And while Preckwinkle took some serious hits during the first round, she still has plenty of name recognition and support from powerful groups like the local SEIU and teacher's union.
The only poll we've seen of the general election so far is a Change Research survey taken days before the primary that gave Lightfoot a 42-25 lead in what was at the time a hypothetical matchup with Preckwinkle. We should see more surveys soon now that the dust has settled and the voters know who their general election choices are, which will give us a better idea of each candidate's standing as the second round of the race begins. The one thing we know at this point is that either Lightfoot or Preckwinkle will make history on April 2, but they'll need to go through another expensive and bruising campaign in order to do it.
P.S. While Ed Burke's indictment in January created plenty of havoc for his many one-time allies, the alderman's own 50-year political career has survived the fallout so far. On Tuesday, Burke outpaced his nearest opponent by a 54-30 margin, and because he took a majority of the vote, there will not be a second round here in April.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Republican Roy Moore, who lost the 2017 special election to Democrat Doug Jones, gave an interview back in January to AL.com and was asked if he'd ever run for office again. Moore responded that he didn't "where the future will be," and that, "If I ever decide to do something, I'll let it be known. But right now, I'm concentrating on what's before me." Moore didn't seem to be talking about a particular race at the time and he hasn't said anything about seeking a rematch with Jones, but this week, the Democratic senator seized on Moore's remarks and essentially dared him to run again.
In that January interview Moore, who lost after multiple women accused him of preying on them when they were teenagers, said he believed that the 2017 election was "stolen." Jones told Politico, that "[i]f he really believes that and if the Republican Party really believes that then they all ought to just step aside, have a press conference with him and let's just do it again."
● IA-Sen: Iowa Starting Line recently reported that the DSCC had met with state Sen. Liz Mathis about a possible bid against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, and Mathis recently confirmed to CBS that she took a meeting during a trip to D.C. with what they describe as "a group interested in talking to her about the upcoming Senate race." Mathis did not say if she was interested in running or not.
● KS-Sen: Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach is still talking about seeking the GOP nod for the open Senate seat, but one old ally reportedly has soured on him.
The Kansas City Star writes that, while Donald Trump still likes Kobach, whom he endorsed in last year's primary for governor, he was not happy with him after he lost to Democrat Laura Kelly by a 48-43 margin. Three unnamed Republicans "familiar with the president's concerns about Kansas and Kobach" told the paper that Trump views keeping this Senate seat as more important than any gratitude he feels to Kobach for campaigning for him in 2016, and that he fears he could cost Team Red the race if he's the nominee again.
National Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, spent weeks trying to persuade U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run for the Senate in large part so he could prevent Kobach from winning another primary, and the White House may indeed share those same sentiments. Kansas political operative David Kensinger, whom the Star writes has ties to Vice President Mike Pence, told the paper that if Kobach looked like he could win the Senate primary, "There's a scenario where the White House might be asking Pompeo to run." Pompeo said last week that he had "ruled out" a Senate bid, but that answer only came after he repeatedly tried to dodge questions about his 2020 plans.
Meanwhile, Kobach learned the hard way this week that his relationship with the White House isn't what it used to be. Kobach and his allies have been talking about him getting a post in the administration, with J.R. Claeys, his 2018 campaign manager, saying last week that a "cabinet position is a very real possibility" for Kobach and that "[b]ased on his resume, he'd be a strong secretary of homeland security." However, the Star writes that White House officials got so frustrated with this unsolicited audition that an unnamed senior official told them, "Kris is not under consideration for a Cabinet position."
● TX-Sen: On Wednesday, the Dallas Morning News, citing unnamed sources close to Beto O'Rourke, reported that the 2018 Senate Democratic nominee has decided not to challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn and will likely instead announce a White House bid "within weeks." O'Rourke only told the paper that he and his wife have "made a decision about how we can best serve our country" and "are excited to share it with everyone soon."
O'Rourke, who held GOP Sen. Ted Cruz to a surprisingly close 51-48 win last year, was Team Blue's top choice to take on Cornyn, but there are other prospective candidates. Earlier this week, Roll Call asked Rep. Joaquin Castro if he was interested in a Senate bid, and all he would say is, "I'll be glad to talk about that on another day," which is very much not a no. They then asked him about a Politico story from a few weeks ago that said that Castro was urging O'Rourke to challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn, and that Castro would consider running himself should O'Rourke pass. Castro responded by saying, "We'll talk about it another time."
Gubernatorial
● MS-Gov: This week, GOP Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves announced endorsements from ten mayors of Gulf Coast communities including the leaders of Gulfport and Biloxi.
House
● CA-01: Last year, Democrat Audrey Denney narrowly outraised GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa and held him to a 55-45 win, and she announced on Monday that she would seek a rematch. This rural Northern California seat, which includes Chico and Redding, is very tough turf for Democrats. Trump carried this district 56-37 and according to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Republican John Cox defeated Democrat Gavin Newsom 61-39 here in last year's gubernatorial contest.
● FL-01: Far-right Twitter troll Matt Gaetz has made a name for himself as an ardent and obnoxious Trump defender, but for once, he may actually face some consequences for his antics.
On Tuesday, a day before former Trump attorney Michael Cohen testified before Congress, Gaetz tweeted at Cohen, "Do your wife & father-in-law know about your girlfriends? Maybe tonight would be a good time for that chat," adding, "I wonder if she'll remain faithful when you're in prison. She's about to learn a lot." Gaetz, a licensed attorney who represents a safely red Pensacola-area seat in his spare time, deleted the message hours later and apologized to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, though he insisted he didn't intend to threaten Cohen.
While Gaetz is not in any danger of receiving a rebuke with voters back home, the Florida Bar is another story. The bar confirmed that they were investigating Gaetz and said that after this inquiry is complete, they will decide whether or not to file charges against Gaetz with the state Supreme Court.
● NC-03, NC-09: On Wednesday, Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper announced the schedule for the special election to succeed Walter Jones, a Republican who died earlier this month, in North Carolina's 3rd District. The candidate filing deadline will be March 8, and the party primaries will be April 30.
North Carolina requires a primary runoff for contests where no one takes at least 30 percent of the vote. The runoffs would take place on July 9, and the general election would be Sept. 10. However, if no primary runoffs are required, the general would be held on July 9. This seat, which includes much of the state's coastline, backed Trump 61-37, and the GOP will be heavily favored to hold it this summer.
Cooper only has authority to schedule the special in the 3rd District, while it's up to the state Board of Elections to set the dates for the upcoming contest in the 9th District. However, Board chairman Bob Cordle said earlier this week that it would make sense to hold the two contests on the same dates, and they will meet on Monday to set the dates. Last week, the Board ordered a new election in the 9th District after four days of hearings into charges that Republican Mark Harris benefitted from an illegal absentee ballot scheme.
Meanwhile in the 9th District, Wake County District Attorney Lorrin Freeman indicted GOP operative McCrae Dowless on multiple charges related to election fraud on Wednesday.
Dowless was charged with having "unlawfully, willfully, and feloniously" tampered with absentee ballots in elections in both the 2016 general election and the 2018 GOP primary, actions that resulted in the counting of "spoiled absentee ballots," and he was also hit with multiple charges of obstruction of justice. Four other people were also indicted for illegal absentee ballot possession and obstruction of justice. Prosecutors are still investigating election fraud allegations related to the 2018 general election.
● NJ-07: State Senate Republican Leader Tom Kean Jr. hasn't said much about his 2020 plans since November, when he didn't rule out challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski, but the New Jersey Globe reports that he's spoken to party leaders and donors about a bid. Kean is the son of former Gov. Tom Kean Sr., and he was Team Red's 2006 Senate nominee against Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez. However, since that defeat, Kean has talked about running for governor or for the Senate again several times but never gone for it.
The New Jersey Globe also spoke to Rosemary Becchi, who currently runs a conservative 501(c)4 group, about her interest in this race. Becchi said she had not "made any decisions" but insisted she's "had no meetings with anyone. No discussions. I am not really focused" on a House campaign. However, five unnamed GOP insiders tell the site that they've all had "specific conversations with Becchi about 2020 congressional campaigns."
Republicans also say that businessman David Larsen is mulling another bid. Larsen challenged GOP incumbent Leonard Lance in the primary each cycle from 2010 until 2016, and he held him to a 54-46 win in 2014. Lance took the same 54 percent in the three-way 2016 primary, but Larsen earned only 33 percent of the vote in his most recent campaign.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Tuesday night turned into a disaster for Connecticut Democrats, who saw Republicans flip two seats in the legislature, including one shocker on solidly blue turf. That stunning result came in the 6th State Senate District, located in New Britain, where the improbably named Gennaro Bizzarro beat Democratic state Rep. Rick Lopes by a 53-47 margin, even though Hillary Clinton had carried the district 60-37 and Barack Obama 66-33.
The other GOP pickup was less surprising but still dismaying. In the 99th state House District, Republican Joe Zullo defeated Democrat Josh Balter 54-46, but this East Haven-based seat had moved sharply to the right, going from 58-41 Obama to 54-43 Trump. It was, in other words, the exact kind of turf you'd worry about defending if you were the Democrats, only it seems like the party didn't take either of these races seriously.
The problem starts at the top, with Gov. Ned Lamont deciding to raid both houses of the legislature to stock his administration: All five special elections on Tuesday—including three that Democrats mercifully won—came about because Lamont tapped Democratic incumbents to work for him. And it yielded the exact same result that we saw earlier this month in Minnesota, where Gov. Tim Walz appointed a Democratic lawmaker in a vulnerable district to a government post; Republicans promptly picked up the seat. There's no shortage of qualified individuals who can take these jobs, so there's no reason for governors to undermine their own party by looting their legislatures.
Lamont's at the center of this mess for a whole host of other reasons, though. While his tenure is just two months old, it's been marked by non-stop disaster. Recently, Lamont gave deadly ammunition to Republicans by abruptly proposing a deeply unpopular plan to toll all motor vehicles on state highways, then left fellow Democrats adrift by failing to put forward any kind of strategy to defend his proposal.
At the same time, he's infuriated progressives by advocating for a tax on groceries while refusing to raise taxes on the rich and calling to end the estate tax. Taxes indeed seemed to be a central issue: Bizzarro called his race "a referendum on tolls and taxes," and Zullo also focused on the topic.
Fortunately, Democrats still hold wide majorities in both chambers: 91-60 in the House and 22-14 in the Senate. But that's not a reason to be complacent. Prior to the November midterms, the Senate was tied at 18 seats apiece and Democrats only controlled it thanks to the lieutenant governor's ability to break ties, while the party held just an 80-71 edge in the House. And what's more, Democrats underperformed the presidential margins across the board on Tuesday, not just in the two races they lost.
Now, turnout was low, and it's often tempting to dismiss the import of special election results as a result. But that would be a mistake. Special elections almost always feature small electorates, but as we argued repeatedly throughout the last election cycle, they nonetheless have a good deal of predictive power. In 2017 and 2018, they pointed toward a strong general election for Democrats, and that's exactly what we wound up getting. Democrats shouldn't hand-wave away these results just because they don't like them.
There are still, however, two mitigating factors. One is that we don't have a whole lot of data points so far in 2019; last cycle, we wound up with well over 100 legislative special elections from which to draw conclusions.
The other is that Connecticut itself is just plain weird when it comes to special elections: Historically, they've been terrible for Democrats no matter the national environment, but occasionally, they've been good news—even as Democrats have been getting lacerated elsewhere. We can't say why for sure, but we do know that nationwide special election results correlate better with future election outcomes better if you simply remove Connecticut's numbers from the data.
Democrats certainly have to hope that's the case, but hope is not a plan. Avoiding unforced errors, letting legislators remain in their jobs, and working hard to win every election is a much better one.
Other Races
● New York, NY Public Advocate: New York City Councilman Jumaane Williams handily won Tuesday night's special election for public advocate with 33 percent of the vote, with his nearest opponent, fellow Councilman Eric Ulrich, finishing a distant second with 19 percent. Williams likely benefited from heightened name recognition thanks to an unsuccessful but strong bid for lieutenant governor last year, when he held incumbent Kathy Hochul to just a 53-47 win in the primary.
However, if he wants to serve the final two years of former Public Advocate Tish James' term, Williams will have to run again in a traditional partisan primary in June, followed by a general election in November. James was elected state attorney general last year, creating the vacancy that prompted this special election, and more so than most such races, it was anything but typical.
Thanks to the unusual timing, a massive field of 17 contenders emerged, including many office-holders because, importantly, they didn't have to give up their current jobs in order to run. And under the rules governing special elections, all candidates ran on a single ballot without a runoff, meaning only a plurality in this low-turnout race was necessary. (Just 9 percent of voters wound up participating.)
Candidates also were not permitted to run under their normal party labels and instead had to come up with lines of their own creation: Williams, a Democrat, adopted the moniker "It's Time Let's Go." Ulrich, the lone Republican in the race, ran on the "Common Sense" line, though it's hard to say whether he benefitted from being able to obscure his party identification (by picking up crossover votes from those ordinarily reluctant to support someone with an "R" next to their name) or was hurt by it, because actual Republican voters may not have known he was one of them.
Whatever the case, Ulrich's support was indeed concentrated in the most Republican parts of the city—particularly Staten Island and southern Brooklyn, according to maps created by researcher Steven Romalewski. Williams, meanwhile, dominated in the rest of Brooklyn (his home borough) and most of Manhattan.
The third-, fourth-, and fifth-place finishers (former City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, Assemblyman Michael Blake, and City Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez) all divvied up the Bronx and Upper Manhattan but collectively only accounted for a quarter of the vote. It's not known yet whether any of these also-rans plan to challenge Williams again later this year.
● OR-SoS: On Tuesday, Republican Secretary of State Dennis Richardson died of brain cancer at the age of 69. As a longtime conservative stalwart in the state House, Richardson was the GOP's unsuccessful nominee for governor in the 2014, but he won an upset victory in the 2016 election for secretary of state, making him the first Republican to win a statewide office in Oregon since former Sen. Gordon Smith won his final term in 2002. However, Richardson had been battling cancer since doctors discovered the tumor last May.
Democratic Gov. Kate Brown will appoint a successor, and since Oregon doesn't have a lieutenant governor, the secretary of state is first in line to the governor's office. However, appointed secretaries of state aren't allowed to ascend to the governor's office in cases of vacancies, thus making Democratic state Treasurer Tobias Read first in line until a new secretary of state is elected next year.
State statute requires an appointee of the same party as the previous officeholder, and Brown issued a statement saying she will consider Republicans who will pledge not to run for a full term in 2020, setting up an open-seat race. A former secretary of state herself, Brown became governor in 2015 when Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber resigned over a scandal, and Brown previously appointed a Democratic placeholder who didn't seek a full term in 2016.