The front page piece by Meteor Blades reminded me of a story I heard about a young man named Daniel Ellsberg. Well, he was young when it happened. I can’t find a reference online, but Ellsberg is still around so maybe he can confirm this story. It really is a classic teachable moment.
Once upon a time, there was a place called the Rand Corporation. They were (actually still are) a global policy think tank. Basically, they were the “Best and Brightest” military strategists money could buy. So, if you wanted to test drive a war you wanted to sell, they were the folks you went to. Think of them as the Mad Men of the Military Industrial Complex.
Anyway, while “duck and cover” drills are capturing everyone’s attention, the boys at the Rand Corporation were busy trying to figure out a way to sell this new war in a place called Viet Nam. The plan had a lot going for it. First, it was way off on the other side of the globe in a place no one ever had heard of called Viet Nam. As if that was even a name you would give your country. You could be well into the war before people even figured out where the heck you were talking about. Second, it was right near China, so you could come up with all sorts of scary Yellow Horde scenarios once anyone figured out what the hell was happening. Third, it was a Civil War, so we could pick a side and get bases all over the place in a minute. Fourth, you could stiff arm anyone calling your bullshit with a cool phrase called “the domino theory” that sounded both familiar, fun and serious at the same time. Never mind it had no bearing on anything. It felt like it did. People could chase that red herring for years. Which gave you plenty of time to survey the sea nearby. For what? Oh yeah, I forgot to mention, there was petroleum (key word) off the coast. This wasn’t exactly a secret. It was mentioned in the New York Times as one of Ike’s key points for justifying US involvement in this place no one ever heard of.
The trick was how do you keep this thing going long and hot enough to make a profit without killing real estate values back home?
The bright boys at Rand figured the way to address the conundrum was to game it out. So they had a war game. It was in a big room with lots of people role playing different decision makers. In the middle of the room was a big table with a topographical map of Viet Nam on it. Defense contractors spared no (tax payer subsidized) expense on this thing. It was gorgeous.
So they’re gaming this out, and everyone is getting a real stiff hard on for this because it looks like you can keep it contained. This young hot head, named Daniel Ellsberg can’t believe the shit people are saying as they get more and more excited with this. He leaves the room only to return with a can of lighter fluid, which he proceeds to spray all over this map. People are watching this, momentarily shaocked. Then he pulls out his Zippo, flicks it to life and tosses it on the table.
“Nuclear War” is all he said as he left.
Disclaimer: It’s been over 40 years since I first heard the story, so I probably screwed up some of the details. But if Ellsberg is out there (and I know he is) he can correct the mistakes. Bottom line: the point remains the same. Anyone who tries to sell you on a “winnable” nuclear strategy is Mything The Point.