Bad news for the Orange Plague, from the Monmouth Polling organization (link here)
Just under 4-in-10 registered voters (38%) say that Trump should be re-elected in 2020. A majority of 57% say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office. These results are identical to a Monmouth poll taken in January and nearly identical to one taken in November.
Looking at Trump’s re-election prospects by key parts of the country suggests there may be trouble ahead in areas that were critical to his victory three years ago. In approximately 300 “swing”counties, accounting for about one-fifth of the total U.S. electorate, only 33% back the incumbent’s reelection compared with 61% who want a change in the Oval Office. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the cumulative vote in these counties by just a single percentage point.
In the nearly 2,500 “red” counties that Trump won by an average of 36 points in 2016, his currentstanding is a comparatively narrower 58% for re-election and 39% for someone new. In the remaining 360 “blue” counties that Clinton won by about 35 points on average, only 21% of voters support Trump for a second term while 74% want someone new.
And is Monmouth reliable? Here’s 538’s assessment for the period from November 2016 through early 2018, right here:
The best of these pollsters over this period has been Monmouth University, which has an Advanced Plus-Minus score of -1.5. That’s not a huge surprise — Monmouth was already one of our highest-rated pollsters. After that, the list is somewhat eclectic, including traditional, live-caller pollsters such as Siena College and Marist College, as well as automated pollsters such as Emerson College and Landmark Communications. Polling institutes run by colleges and universities are somewhat overrepresented among the high performers on the list and have generally become a crucial source of polling as other high-quality pollsters have fallen by the wayside.
Overall, 538 rates Monmouth as an A+ poll.
To me the big news is the swing counties, which have shifted from +1 Democratic to POTENTIALLY—I repeat, potentially— +28 Democratic in 2020. (At least the opportunity is there.) And the narrowing of Trump’s support in the red counties is ominous news for the Republicans as well. It means that Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, and many other states that were narrowly for Trump are definitely in play.
Stop listening to people who are trying to create a false narrative about Trump being the “favorite” for 2020. HE’S NOT. He’s deeply vulnerable. If we have the right candidates and the right message, we can run the table on him. Fact.
I have some ideas along these lines. If you’re interested, they’re here, here, here, and here. I hope you’ll take a look, and then take heart: Together, we’re going to kick these wretched Republicans out and save our country in the process.