The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NC-09: On Monday, CBS affiliate WBTV reported that the Justice Department has issued subpoenas for a federal grand jury investigation into the election fraud that marred last year's race for North Carolina's 9th Congressional District.
Campaign Action
Among the targets are the state Board of Elections (which received a subpoena for the documents produced by its own investigation), the campaign for 2018 GOP nominee Mark Harris, and McCrae Dowless, the operative who orchestrated the fraud scheme to benefit Harris. State prosecutors have already indicted Dowless and several of his associates over their involvement in similar election fraud operations in the 2016 general election and 2018 primary, while their inquiry into the 2018 general election remains ongoing.
Meanwhile, in the upcoming do-over election to fill the vacant 8th District, former Republican state Sen. Fern Shubert has filed to run ahead of Friday's filing deadline, which the News & Observer describes as a "surprise" move. Shubert, who hasn't publicly confirmed that she's running, last won election to a Union County state Senate seat back in 2002, but she gave it up to run for governor in 2004. However, she finished a distant fifth place in the GOP primary and later lost primaries to regain her Senate seat in 2010 and for state auditor in 2012.
If Shubert runs, she would join a GOP primary field that already includes former Mecklenburg County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour and Union County Commissioner Stony Rushing, but that field could swell even further. But as the decision date approaches, some would-be candidates are moving toward the sidelines: State Rep. Dean Arp has reportedly said he's unlikely to run.
Of course, it wouldn't be a special election without Republicans publicly downplaying their chances—indeed, it's become quite a tradition. Unnamed operatives previously trashed Harris when they thought they might get stuck with him a second time, but even though he's said he won't run again, local Republicans are already fretting about their alternatives.
Indeed, former Gov. Pat McCrory recently told the National Journal that the GOP field consists of candidates who only hold "second-tier positions," while Rep. David Rouzer, who represents the neighboring 7th District, even went so far as to argue that Democrat Dan McCready "has the advantage of the incumbency" thanks to his existing name recognition.
McCready will almost certainly face little or no opposition in the Democratic primary, which would allow him to stockpile his resources while the GOP fights it out in a potential September runoff if no candidate takes more than 30 percent in the first round. The general election is scheduled for Nov. 5, but if no runoffs are needed, it will take place on Sept. 10 (the date currently set for the runoffs).
Senate
● GA-Sen: Democrats have been hoping that 2018 gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams will challenge Republican Sen. David Perdue next year, but she may have her eye on a bigger prize. Indeed, Abrams tweeted on Monday that she "never thought [she'd] be ready to run for [president] before 2028," but a 2020 run "is definitely on the table …." Abrams didn't give any further indication of when she would decide what to run for.
House
● NJ-03: Republican Assemblyman Ryan Peters was recently asked if he might challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim in 2020, and he didn't rule out the prospect. However, Peters said he was focused on his 2019 re-election race. So far, no noteworthy Republican has joined the contest yet.
● OH-01: Jason Williams at the Cincinnati Enquirer relays that the DCCC has talked to retired Air Force combat pilot Nikki Foster about running as a Democrat to challenge Republican Rep. Steve Chabot in this Cincinnati-area district next year. Foster doesn't appear to have said anything publicly, but Williams writes that Democrats may be hoping to replicate the success they had with other women veterans running in 2018 who didn't have records that could be attacked. Foster previously challenged a GOP incumbent for state House last year and lost 61-39 in a seat Trump had carried by 60-35.
● TX-24: After the Palo Pinto County Democratic Party posted on Facebook on Sunday about how Democrat Kim Olson planned to run for the 24th District in the northern Dallas-Ft. Worth suburbs against Republican Rep. Kenny Marchant, Olson has now confirmed that she is "seriously considering" the race. Olson, who is a retired Air Force colonel, was Team Blue's nominee for agriculture commissioner in 2018 and lost by a relatively respectable 51-46 margin against GOP incumbent Sid Miller.
