Morning Digest: Mike Pompeo keeps everyone guessing about a 2020 Senate run

Leading Off

● KS-Sen: Despite saying just last month that a 2020 run to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts was “ruled out,” U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo once again left the door open when the local Fox affiliate in Kansas City asked him on Monday if he might run for the Senate in the future. Pompeo replied, "I've learned in life one needs to work hard, keep your head down, do your job as well as you can and then the next thing will come to you.” In other words, no, it is not ruled out.

In a separate interview with McClatchy, Pompeo was also asked multiple times if he’d forclosed the possibility of running for office in Kansas sometime in the future, and again, the answer was no. While Pompeo doesn’t appear to have been asked in either interview if he was interested in running for the Senate specifically in 2020, the secretary of state very much left his answers vague enough to keep wild speculation going about his plans for next year.

And sure enough, McClatchy also reports that Kansas political insiders from both parties are continuing to widely speculate that Pompeo may run for Senate in 2020 or governor in 2022. The former congressman also has $1 million in leftover campaign funds from his days in the House that he could use to jumpstart a bid for Senate (though not a gubernatorial campaign).

Back when Pompeo supposedly had—however briefly—declined the 2020 Senate race, we said at the time that we were skeptical he really meant it, since his declaration came only after an interview aggressively pushed him following multiple attempts to dodge the question.

Furthermore, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has been reportedly encouraging Pompeo to run so the GOP can avoid nominating a flawed general election candidate such as defeated 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach. It's unlikely that McConnell will easily relent if he believes Pompeo is key to holding this red seat―especially since Pompeo just doesn’t seem to want to say no himself.

But there's more than a year left until the June 2020 filing deadline, and given his name recognition and stature, Pompeo could keep us waiting for a while before it's clear whether he'll run or not. So if you’re a fan of Pompeology, where politicos spend plenty of time wildly parsing the secretary of state’s cryptic utterances about his political future, you’re in for a real treat.

Senate

● AL-Sen: At a recent event, Republican Secretary of State John Merrill refused to rule out running for Senate against Democratic Sen. Doug Jones next year, but he didn't sound particularly likely to go for it when an audience member asked him to. Merrill responded by saying, "We are going to have some outstanding candidates that will run for that .... Don't create a circular firing squad like we have done in the past." So far, Rep. Bradley Byrne is the only notable Republican in the race, and it's unclear whether he meets Merrill's standard of an "outstanding" candidate.

● GA-Sen: Democrat Stacey Abrams recently told the Washington Post that she expects to announce in early April whether she will run for Senate against Republican Sen. David Perdue. Abrams has previously said she's still considering whether to run for Senate next year, governor again in 2022, or even for president in 2020.

● TX-Sen: While Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro hasn't confirmed a recent Texas Monthly report saying he was planning to challenge GOP Sen. John Cornyn, his identical twin brother dropped a very huge hint that the congressman will be getting in. Presidential candidate Julian Castro retweeted the story and added, "Looks like I might have some company on the campaign trail soon."

Gubernatorial

● KY-Gov: Former state Auditor Adam Edelen has unveiled his first TV ad ahead of the Kentucky's Democratic primary for governor in May. The spot starts off with Edelen saying he has things in common with those who saw their fathers get "laid off at the plant" or who once struggled to pay the rent. He bemoans how "big corporations buy politicians so they can get ahead" and claims he's the only candidate not taking corporate PAC money. Edelen closes by advocating for expanding Medicaid, creating thousands of renewable energy jobs, and increasing wages.

House

● NC-09: Candidate filing closed Friday for the May 14 primaries for the special election North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, a contest that's being held because the original race was marred by Republican election fraud. The state has a complete list of contenders available here.

North Carolina requires a primary runoff for contests where no one takes at least 30 percent of the vote. The runoffs would take place on Sept. 10, and the general election would be Nov. 5. However, if no such runoffs are required, the general would be held on Sept. 10.

Marine veteran Dan McCready, who was Team Blue's nominee in the 2018 contest, is running again, and he faces no opposition in the Democratic primary. One Green Party candidate and one Libertarian have also filed. Things are very different on the GOP side, though, where 10 hopefuls are running, without an obvious frontrunner.

Mark Harris, last year's Republican nominee, is backing Union County Commissioner Stony Rushing rather than running again himself. Rushing, who owns a firing range and firearms store, has ardently denied that Harris benefited from any election fraud and argued that it was Democrats who were the guilty party.

Rushing also earned himself some unusual attention when he posted a proposed "deal" with reporters to Facebook: Rushing said he'd "give an exclusive interview about my sexual history from loss of virginity to today to the reporter who can get Dan McCready to answer these three questions." (Those questions were about McCready's support for abortion rights, the Green New Deal, and something difficult to parse about an alleged tip regarding the state's election fraud investigation.) Rushing seems to have been motivated to make this very TMI offer after Popular Information's Judd Legum interviewed him about a truly bizarre 2015 lawsuit involving a woman he'd had an affair with.

The only other current elected official in the race is state Sen. Dan Bishop, who will reportedly self-fund at least $250,000. Bishop is best known as the author of House Bill 2, also known as the anti-LGBT "bathroom bill." The law, which required anyone using bathrooms at schools or public facilities to use the restroom associated with the gender on their birth certificate, caused a national backlash when it passed in 2016 and led a number of businesses to cancel planned expansions into North Carolina, and it also contributed to GOP Gov. Pat McCrory's narrow defeat that year. Bishop's career survived, though, and last year, he was re-elected 53-47 in a seat that Trump carried 50-47.

Two former elected officials are also in. Former Mecklenburg County Commissioner Matthew Ridenhour, who was an early local tea party organizer, narrowly lost re-election in a historically Republican South Charlotte district last fall in what the News & Observer called a "surprise sweep by Democrats." Despite that recent defeat, Ridenhour is arguing he's the strongest GOP candidate against McCready, a fellow Marine veteran, saying that "it takes a Marine to beat a Marine."

There's also former state Sen. Fern Shubert, whose last few campaigns have gone badly. Shubert left the state Senate in 2004 to run for governor, but she ended up taking a meager 4 percent of the vote in the GOP primary. She then lost a 2012 primary to return to the legislature and a 2014 primary for state auditor. She also seems obsessed with homosexuality, blaming same-sex marriage for "rising crime rates" and expressing terror over "homosexual recruitment."

Another contender is Leigh Thomas Brown, a former official at the National Association of Realtors. The NAR's political arm is famous for spending large sums in congressional contests for candidates on both sides of the aisle, and the Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill relays that Brown is "said to be able to match" Bishop in fundraising. Brown ran for a state House seat in 2014 and lost the primary 62-38 to incumbent Larry Pittman.‏

Five other Republicans are in, but none of them look serious at this point. This includes attorney Chris Anglin, who was a registered Democrat until he launched a 2018 state Supreme Court bid as a Republican. Anglin's campaign helped spoil Team Red's scheme to keep an opponent of their gerrymanders, Democrat Anita Earls, off the court, and state Republicans remain deliciously furious with him.

This seat, which includes a portion of the city of Charlotte as well as its nearby suburbs, backed Trump 55-43, and according to analyst Miles Coleman, McCrory carried the district by the same margin in 2016. However, McCready's strong showing even in the face of GOP fraud—the unofficial returns had him down just 905 votes—shows it's quite winnable. In mid-February, McCready's allies at the DCCC released an in-house poll giving him a 50-46 lead over a generic Republican candidate, and the GOP has yet to offer contrary numbers.

McCready's opponent, of course, won't be Generic Republican, but Team Red may wish they could nominate this mythical creature rather than any of their 10 real choices. Indeed, local Republicans have been fretting that they have a weak field of candidates who, as McCrory himself put it, only hold "second-tier positions." Republicans almost always bemoan how bad their nominee is ahead of every special election, but they usually at least wait until they have a nominee.

● NY-15: The New York Post reports that New York City Council Member Ritchie Torres intends to challenge Rep. Jose Serrano in the Democratic primary, and when asked about his interest, Torres simply said, "Stay tuned." Serrano has held down this Bronx-based district, which has a large black and Latino population and is one of the bluest in the nation, since 1990. As one of the most progressive members of the House, he has seemingly few apostasies that could make him vulnerable in the primary.

However, it's possible the 75-year-old incumbent could retire after spending more than 40 years in public office between Congress and the state legislature, in which case the 31-year-old Torres may be hoping to get a jump start ahead of what would likely be a crowded field. If Torres does run and wins, he would be the first gay Congress member to represent any part of New York City.

● TX-10: Democrat Pritesh Gandhi, an assistant professor at Austin's Dell Medical School, announced on Tuesday that he would take on GOP Rep. Michael McCaul. The incumbent already faces a challenge from 2018 Democratic nominee Mike Siegel, an Austin city attorney who held McCaul to a 51-47 win. This seat, which stretches from Austin east into the Houston area, backed Trump 52-43, but according to analyst Miles Coleman, Democrat Beto O'Rourke edged GOP Sen. Ted Cruz 49.6-49.5 here last year.

Legislative

● Special Elections: There are two Midwestern special elections on tap for Tuesday:

IA-SD-30: This is a Democratic district located in Cedar Falls. This seat became vacant after former state Sen. Jeff Danielson resigned last month to become a regional director at the American Wind Energy Association. The candidates in this race were selected by the parties. The Democrat is Cedar Falls school board member Eric Giddens while the Republican is former state Rep. Walt Rogers.

Rogers has a long electoral history in this area, representing a portion of it in the state House beginning in 2010 until he narrowly losing his seat to Democrat Dave Williams in 2018. He also ran for this same state Senate seat in 2008, losing by just 22 votes to Danielson. There is also a Libertarian candidate, Fred Perryman, on the ballot.

This race has generated a bit of national attention due to the presence of 2020 Democratic presidential hopefuls in Iowa. Nearly all the major candidates running have thrown some type of support behind Giddens, both in the form of endorsements and by sending staff to aid his campaign. This support could make a big difference in a light blue district that went for Hillary Clinton 48-45 and Barack Obama 53-46.

The outcome of this race may have significant implications for the Iowa Senate. Republicans currently have a 32-17 majority in the state Senate, and 34 seats are needed for a supermajority. A Democratic hold will therefore be important to keep Republicans from the precipice of a supermajority.

MN-HD-11B: This is a Republican district located in east-central Minnesota. The vacancy was created by former state Rep. Jason Rarick's election to the state Senate in another special election in February. The Democratic candidate is Tim Burkhardt, lost to Rarick 60-40 here in 2018. The Republican is Pine County Farm Bureau president Nathan Nelson. This race originally featured a large field on the Republican side, but several candidates dropped out after Nelson received the backing of the state party.

This is a red district that went for Donald Trump 61-32 but only narrowly backed Mitt Romney 51-47. Democratic flipped the Minnesota House last year and currently enjoy a 75-59 majority.

Mayoral

● Chicago, IL Mayor: Former federal prosecutor Lori Lightfoot picked up an endorsement over the weekend from freshman Democratic Rep. Chuy Garcia, who was Mayor Rahm Emanuel's 2015 general election opponent. Attorney Jerry Joyce, who took 7 percent in last month's nonpartisan primary, also has backed Lightfoot over Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle.

● Kansas City, MO Mayor: On behalf of the Kansas City Star, SurveyUSA takes a look at the April 2 nonpartisan primary. They give City Councilor Jolie Justus, a former state Senate Democratic leader, the lead with 15 percent of the vote. Justus picked up an endorsement from Mayor Sly James after this poll was concluded.

SurveyUSA finds a three-way tie for the second spot in the June 18 general election, with City Councilors Alissia Canady and Jermaine Reed and attorney Steve Miller at 10 percent each. Councilors Scott Taylor and Scott Wagner each are just behind with 6, while yet another city councilor, Quinton Lucas, takes 5.

This is the second poll we've seen of this contest. A late February survey from the GOP firm Remington Research had Justus leading Miller 18-15, while Lucas, Reed, Taylor, and Wagner were tied for third with 7 percent each.