The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● NM-Sen: New Mexico Sen. Tom Udall announced on Monday that he would not seek a third term next year, making him the first Democratic senator to announce his retirement this cycle. Given the state's partisan tilt, however, Democrats should be able to hold this seat without much difficulty.
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Udall, a member of the famous Udall political family, got his start in politics at a young age, but it wasn't auspicious: He lost two races for the House in the 1980s, the first a dismal fourth-place finish in a Democratic primary in 1982 that was won Bill Richardson (who'd later become governor); the second, a narrow general election defeat to Republican Steven Schiff in 1988.
Udall's fortunes soon turned around, though, and he'd never lose another election. He won two terms as state attorney general starting in 1990, then finally made it to the House with a comfortable 10-point victory in 1998 in New Mexico's 3rd District—the same seat where, as a 34-year-old, he'd gotten trounced by Richardson.
Udall served in the lower chamber for a decade until longtime Republican Sen. Pete Domenici decided not to seek a seventh term in 2008. That year, amidst a Democratic wave, Udall crushed fellow Rep. Steve Pearce in a 61-39 blowout, even carrying Pearce’s own conservative 2nd District. Simultaneously, his first cousin Mark Udall, whom he'd served alongside in the House, also won a Senate seat in neighboring Colorado. (Mark is the son of legendary Arizona Rep. Mo Udall, whose brother was JFK and LBJ Interior Secretary Stewart Udall, the father of Tom.)
During his time in Congress, Udall became known as a leader on environmental issues, and in a statement explaining his decision not to seek re-election, he pledged to continue the fight against climate change. He also identified his priorities in his remaining two years in office as working to undo Citizens United and end the U.S. war in Afghanistan.
When it came time for the GOP wave of 2014, Udall again won, albeit by a smaller 56-44 margin over Republican Allen Weh, though his fate was never seriously in doubt. In fact, the GOP hasn't won a Senate race in New Mexico since Domenici's final hurrah in 2002, and the last time a Senate seat came open here, in 2012, Republicans didn't make a major effort to contest it, as Democratic Rep. Martin Heinrich defeated former Republican Rep. Heather Wilson 51-45.
This year, no Republicans had yet expressed any interest in taking Udall on, though plenty of Democrats will be interested in trying to succeed him.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: On Monday evening, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego announced that he would not run against Republican Sen. Martha McSally next year, a somewhat surprising development seeing as Arizona Democratic Party chair Felecia Rotellini said just over a week ago that Gallego had told her he was "preparing his candidacy for the U.S. Senate."
The congressman, however, faced an enormous obstacle: former astronaut Mark Kelly, who unexpectedly jumped into the race last month with widespread support and raised $1 million on his first day. In fact, not long before the Gallego news broke on Monday, Kelly said he'd now raised $3 million, a possible warning shot and a sure sign that a bruising primary would have laid in wait.
In fact, Gallego cited exactly that in explaining his decision. “I don’t want to engage in a bitter primary all the way until the general election, and then turn around and try to run, whether it’s me or Kelly, against McSally in a year when the Democrats need to win the Senate seat and take the state,” he told the Arizona Republic.
That wasn't the only downside: Gallego, a Marine and Iraq veteran, would also have had to give up his safely blue House seat in the Phoenix area for a very uncertain crack at the Democratic nomination for Senate. However, he's only 39 years old and could seek other opportunities in the near future, including the Arizona governorship, which will come open in 2022 when Republican Gov. Doug Ducey is term-limited.
● TX-Sen: Reps. Veronica Escobar, Sylvia Garcia, Vicente Gonzalez, and Filemon Vela, all of whom are Hispanic Democrats, have launched a committee with Latino Victory Fund to draft fellow Hispanic Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro to run for Senate against Republican Sen. John Cornyn in 2020. Texas Monthly recently reported that Castro was "all but certain" to run, and his campaign adviser recently said the congressman would "be making an announcement in the very near future" about his 2020 plans.
Gubernatorial
● MT-Gov: State Attorney General Tim Fox said on Friday that he won't drop out if Rep. Greg Gianforte, who represents the entire state in the House, were to join the Republican primary for next year's open-seat race for governor. Fox furthermore took a thinly veiled shot at Gianforte, who garnered national notoriety in his 2017 special election when he physically assaulted Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs and lied about it to police, by saying he has "never compromised [his] personal morals" and that he has "never violated an ethics code."
Gianforte was Team Red's nominee for governor in 2016, and he hasn't ruled out another run this cycle, meaning this latest news could be a preview of a potentially nasty primary election to come if the congressman decides to run again. Meanwhile, Fox already faces a field with multiple rivals, including Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, state Sen. Al Olszewski, and former state Sen. Gary Perry, whom we previously have not mentioned and has received little media attention.
● WA-Gov: A new poll conducted by Chism Strategies and paid for by CN4 Partners (a pair of Democratic firms), offers us our first hypothetical look at Washington's 2020 gubernatorial race, assuming Democrat Jay Inslee doesn't abandon his presidential campaign to seek a third term as governor. The poll tested a top-two primary scenario, whereby all candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot in August of next year, and the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.
In this setup, 2016 GOP nominee Bill Bryant, the only Republican tested, would take 46 percent, while three Democrats would trail well behind: Attorney General Bob Ferguson takes 25, King County Executive Dow Constantine gets 6, and Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz just 2. That would lead to a Ferguson-Bryant matchup in the general election, though note that none of these potential candidates is actually running yet, and several others are considering as well.
Chism's memo says that the poll was undertaken "without any input or funding from any of the potential candidate campaigns mentioned in the survey." However, it was conducted entirely via interactive voice response (or IVR), better known as "robopolling." Barring special measures, such polls only reach landline users because federal regulations prohibit autodialers from calling cell phones.
House
● AL-01: Former state Sen. Bill Hightower has previously said he was considering seeking the GOP nod to succeed Republican Rep. Bradley Byrne in the Mobile area's safely red 1st District, and Hightower sent an email to supporters on Friday saying he may reach a decision over the "next few weeks."
● GA-06: Former Rep. Karen Handel, who'd said earlier this month that she was considering a rematch against Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, formally kicked off a bid on Monday. Handel, however, won't get a clear shot at the general election: First she'll have to win next year's Republican primary against state Sen. Brandon Beach, whom the Atlanta Journal-Constitution describes as "well-connected" thanks to his position as chair of the Senate Transportation Committee.
● NY-15: On Monday, longtime Democratic Rep. José Serrano announced he'd retire from Congress due to a diagnosis of Parkinson's disease.
Serrano, who was born in Puerto Rico but moved to the Bronx as a child, had served in the House since winning a special election in 1990, prior to which he'd spent 15 years in the state Assembly. While Serrano's congressional district has been renumbered and redistricting several times during his three decades in office, it's always been centered around the South Bronx and shares a few distinctions.
Due to its high population density, it's currently the third-smallest House district by land area at just 14.5 miles. It's also, for three straight presidential elections, been the bluest district in the entire country, giving Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (twice over) their highest vote shares. At the same time, however, it's the poorest district in the nation, with a median household income of just $29,000.
Serrano never won re-election with less than 92 percent of the vote, and he'd rarely faced opposition in the primary: The last time he did, in 2016, he took 89 percent against an intra-party rival. But this year, Serrano was facing a likely primary challenge from New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres, who'd already filed paperwork with the FEC and has a fundraiser planned for next month (of course, it’s possible Torres already knew Serrano planned to retire). For the chance to represent a seat as safe as this one, though, Torres should expect plenty of company from fellow Democrats very soon.
● TX-21, TX-Sen: Army veteran Joseph Kopser, who'd been considering both a second House bid and a campaign for Senate, announced over the weekend that he would not seek public office at any level in 2020.
While a number of other Democrats have been talking about running against Sen. John Cornyn, we haven't yet heard anyone else express interest in taking on freshman GOP Rep. Chip Roy in the 21st District. Democrats will definitely want to challenge him, though: After voting for Mitt Romney by a 60-38 margin in 2012, the 21st went for Trump by a much narrower 52-42 in 2016, and last year, Roy only beat Kopser by a tight 50-48 spread. In addition, according to analyst Miles Coleman, Sen. Ted Cruz edged Beto O'Rourke just 49.6-49.5.
● WA-05: Although she stepped down from her leadership position within the Republican caucus after the GOP lost the House in 2018, 5th District Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers confirmed she will seek an eighth term next year representing the Spokane area in the House. McMorris Rodgers faced a very well-funded challenge from former Democratic state Senate Majority Leader Lisa Brown in 2018, but the congresswoman prevailed by a solid 55-45 and is unlikely to be vulnerable in 2020 in this 52-39 Trump district.
Legislative
● Special Elections: The Palmetto State is the site of Tuesday's lone special election.
SC-SD-06: This is a Republican district located north of Greenville. This vacancy was created by former state Sen. William Timmons' election to the U.S. House last year. Greenville County planner Tina Belge is the Democratic candidate running against Republican state Rep. Dwight Loftis.
Loftis has received the backing of prominent South Carolina Republicans such as Timmons and Gov. Henry McMaster. On the Democratic side, Belge has received support from 2020 presidential hopeful Kamala Harris. Harris, who has had a strong presence in the state thanks to its early position in next year's primary calendar, has also directed staff to assist Belge. Other presidential contenders have also chipped in, albeit not to the same extent they helped Iowa Democrat Eric Giddens, who won a competitive special election last week.
This is a solidly Republican district that went for Donald Trump 62-31 and Mitt Romney 67-31. Republicans hold a 26-19 advantage in the state Senate, not counting this vacancy.
Mayoral
● Chicago, IL Mayor: A new poll of next week's mayoral runoff in Chicago shows the same thing every other poll has: former prosecutor Lori Lightfoot crushing Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle. The latest survey, conducted by Democratic pollster Normington Petts (on behalf of a pair of media organizations, a local consultant, and, believe it or not, one of the guys who created Cards Against Humanity), finds Lightfoot with a dominant 53-17 lead; the closest poll taken since the first round of voting in February had Lightfoot up a mere 28 points. Preckwinkle, beset by missteps and abandoned by allies, has never released contradictory numbers.