Leading Off
● Supreme Court: On Tuesday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in two critical cases challenging a Democratic congressional gerrymander in Maryland and a Republican one in North Carolina that could determine whether the court will finally start curtailing partisan gerrymandering or give mapmakers free rein to try to rig the lines to favor their party, even when the other side wins more votes. However, now that hardline Republican Justice Brett Kavanaugh has replaced conservative swing Justice Anthony Kennedy, the plaintiffs are not expected to meet with much success.
Since the 1980s, the Supreme Court has repeatedly held that partisan gerrymandering could theoretically violate the Constitution. However, it has never actually invalidated any particular map on such grounds, saying it lacks a standard to decide when to do so. Indeed, when both of these cases came before the high court last year, the conservative majority sent the North Carolina case back to the lower court by requiring the plaintiffs to prove they were harmed in each individual district and not just on a statewide basis, and it refused to expedite the Maryland case.
Both cases saw district courts strike down the maps later in 2018, with the North Carolina litigators making sure they had plaintiffs from each of the challenged districts. Consequently, if the Supreme Court upholds either of these decisions, it could establish such a standard against gerrymandering, setting a far-reaching precedent that could finally begin to place limits on the epidemic of gerrymandering that has swept the nation. However, if the plaintiffs fail, it could open the floodgates to even more extreme gerrymanders going forward.
For a more in-depth look at the particulars of each of these Maryland and North Carolina cases, check out Stephen Wolf's full write-up, which details why redistricting reformers are so pessimistic that the court will take a major stand against gerrymandering.
Senate
● ME-Sen: The pollster Pan Atlantic Research gives us our first look at a potential 2020 general election for Senate in Maine, and they have good news for Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The senator leads Democratic state House Speaker Sara Gideon by a wide 51-29 margin, and Collins boasts an intimidating 62 percent approval rating.
However, one silver lining for Gideon, who is considering the race but hasn't actually jumped in yet, is that 41 percent of respondents didn't know enough about her to say whether or not they viewed her favorably. Given how well-known Collins is by contrast, Gideon's standing could rise if she enters the race and becomes better known to the electorate. Nevertheless, if this poll is accurate, Collins may be tough to beat even though, as one of just two Republicans up in 2020 in states Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, flipping Collins' seat is likely to be a prerequisite for Democrats to take the Senate next year.
● MI-Sen, MI-06: Longtime Republican Rep. Fred Upton was asked if he would consider running for Senate next year against Democratic incumbent Gary Peters, and while he didn't rule it out, Upton sounded unlikely to run. The congressman said he's "not taking the Shermanesque statement, but no, that's not in our game plan," further implying that his wife was opposed to the idea. Upton had been a potential candidate in 2018 but ultimately chose to seek re-election, which he just narrowly won by a 50-46 margin, the smallest margin of any of his his 16 House election wins.
● NM-Sen: As would be the case with any Senate retirement, Democrat Tom Udall's announcement on Monday that he would not seek a third term has been greeted with a flood of names of potential successors. That means it's a busy time for our friend the Great Mentioner, who's been scouring sources high and low. No one's actually plunged in quite yet, so below we'll tally up all the "maybes" and "nos."
We'll start with the Democrats, who are strongly favored to keep this seat. Note that we regard a candidate as "considering" the race if they or a spokesperson say so on the record; if the information comes from an unnamed source, or if no source is specified, then we regard that candidate as "reportedly considering." Names listed as "mentioned" have appeared in credible media outlets but without information about their potential interest.
Considering
Reportedly Considering
Hasn't Ruled It Out
Mentioned
No
And now for the Republicans:
Considering
- Businessman (and 2018 Senate nominee) Mick Rich
Reportedly Considering
Hasn't Ruled It Out
- Former Rep. (and 2018 governor nominee) Steve Pearce (no direct quote)
Mentioned
And finally, there's former Gov. Gary Johnson, who served two terms as a Republican in the 1990s and early 2000s, was the Libertarian nominee for president in both 2012 and 2016, and captured 15 percent of the vote running for Senate under the Libertarian banner last year. That experience might finally have taught him something, because this time, whatever party he's a member of these days, he's a no. Stick with us in the days and weeks ahead for further details about all of these candidates, and more.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: On behalf of GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham, Remington Research Group is out with another survey of this year's contest for governor.
In the October jungle primary they give Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards the lead with 44 percent of the vote, while Abraham leads wealthy businessman and fellow Republican Eddie Rispone 33-10 for the second spot in a November runoff. The poll also tests Edwards in hypothetical one-on-one contests with each Republican and finds him edging Abraham 47-45 and Rispone 48-42, respectively. This poll is almost identical to what Remington found for Abraham back in December, though the congressman actually tied Edwards 44-44 four months ago.
We'll note that in both polls, the very first question asked was "Do you think Louisiana is headed in the right direction or is it on the wrong track?" Respondents selected right direction by a narrow 42-41 (in December, wrong track led 43-42), after which they were asked their opinions on Donald Trump and the candidates for governor and then the horserace question. We always encourage pollsters to ask questions like right track/ wrong track after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.
House
● CO-01: Former state House Speaker Crisanta Duran got some notable endorsements in her primary challenge against longtime Democratic Rep. Diana DeGette, with former U.S. cabinet officials Ken Salazar and Federico Peña announcing their support. Salazar served as Obama's Interior Secretary and had previously been both a senator and state attorney general in Colorado, and Peña had been Bill Clinton's Energy and Transportation secretaries after having previously been mayor of Denver.
Salazar and Peña were the first Latinos to serve as Colorado senator and Denver mayor, respectively. While Salazar in particular was a relative moderate during his time in elected office, it's possible that both are endorsing Duran because she would be the first Latina Congress member from the state, and the Denver-based 1st District has never had a Latino representative despite its population being one-fourth Latino. DeGette has a strongly progressive voting record with no obvious apostasies, so those backing Duran may also simply think it's time for a new generation of leadership after DeGette has been in office since 1997.
● GA-06: Shortly after announcing her campaign for a rematch against first-term Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath on Monday, former Republican Rep. Karen Handel has unveiled endorsements from six of Georgia's nine Republican House members, Reps. Buddy Carter, Doug Collins, Drew Ferguson, Tom Graves, Austin Scott, and Rob Woodall, along with with her predecessor, former Rep. Tom Price. Handel faces a primary with state Sen. Brandon Beach before she can get to run against McBath.
● GA-07: Marine veteran Harrison Floyd is reportedly preparing to kick off a bid for the Republican nomination to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Rob Woodall in this suburban Atlanta-area district, with georgiapol.com relaying that Floyd has been "making the rounds of conservative organizations." It's unclear whether Floyd has run for office before or has the connections to run a strong race, but he has a background focusing on veterans' issues.
● NY-15: Longtime Rep. José Serrano's retirement could set off a crowded Democratic primary in this safely blue Bronx seat, but one familiar name isn't joining the battle. While state Sen. José M. Serrano, the congressman's son, has been mentioned over the years as a possible candidate to succeed his father, he announced on Monday that he would not run. State Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie also said he wouldn't enter the race.
New York City Councilman Ritchie Torres opened a fundraising committee before the elder Serrano announced he would retire on Monday, but he still hasn't said he's running. Torres told the New York Times that same day that he'd "rather keep the focus on [Serrano's] legacy" rather than talk about his own plans.
The only other notable Democrat who has expressed interest in running is state Sen. Gustavo Rivera, who said Monday that he was considering this contest, but there are plenty of other possible candidates. Roll Call writes that that some of the names "circulating" are Assemblymember Nathalia Fernandez; former Serrano staffer Amanda Septimo; former New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito; and Assemblymember and Bronx Democratic County Committee Chairman Marcos Crespo.
Will Brederman of Crain's adds that Assemblyman Michael Blake has "long been rumored to have an interest in this seat." Both Mark-Viverito and Blake ran in the very crowded February special election for New York City public advocate and took 11 and 8 percent of the vote, respectively.
● OH-13: Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan said this week that if he runs for president he would also seek re-election to the House. Ohio law allows Ryan, who said his White House decision would come "[i]n the next few weeks," to run for both offices at once. Ryan's Youngstown-area seat went from 63-35 Obama to 51-45 Clinton, and the GOP might have an opening if Ryan is busy campaigning nationally.
Mayoral
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Democratic Rep. Bobby Rush endorsed Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle over the weekend, and he also made it very clear how little he liked her opponent, former federal prosecutor Lori Lightfoot.
On Monday, Rush declared that Lightfoot, a former president of the Chicago Police Board, "has made an alliance with the devil" and predicted she would end the consent decree the city police force has been under. The congressman also said, "If any young black male or female is killed by a police officer, under a Lightfoot administration, then the blood would be on those voters' hands who elected her." Lightfoot called for Preckwinkle to condemn Rush's remarks, which she declined to do.
This controversy comes about a week ahead of the April 2 mayoral election, which Lightfoot is favored to win. Lightfoot also recently picked up an endorsement from state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, who took 9 percent of the vote in the very crowded Feb. 28 primary. Last week, Lightfoot also earned the backing of Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley.
