I am not writing this piece as a Joe Biden advocate. I believe he was a steady hand as Barack Obama’s vice president, and on balance he’s a great Democrat, but for a variety of reasons (ideology, mainly) he’s not on my first tier of choices for our presidential nominee.
Still, I’ve seen things from three sources recently that lead me to conclude that I—as well as many here (especially based on site polling)—am underestimating just how much desire there is among Democratic primary voters for a Biden candidacy.
First, the recent NBC/WSJ survey. The survey asked Democratic primary voters, as they do in every contested cycle, what’s more important: a candidate with the best chance to beat the Republican, or one who comes closest to your views on issues?
So it came out 56-40 for “Comes closest to your views on issues,” which is interesting in itself, but especially in context: In July 2015, that same question landed at 79-20 in favor of “Comes closest to your views on issues” rather than in favor of the pragmatic choice. So that’s a pretty big swing in the direction of pragmatism, and consistent with the polling (see lower box) of the GOP primary base in 2012, which was willing to accept Mitt Romney rather than a Santorum, Bachmann, or Gingrich who might have been more ideologically simpatico.
Second, did you see the tweet thread about a South Carolina focus group of African-American women likely to vote in the Democratic Primary? You should. Start here. There’s discussion of Sens. Warren and Harris too, but this pair is the key:
Voters like the idea of a sure win. They like the idea of a third Obama term, via Biden. Which leads to our final source, last month’s iteration of the Harvard Harris poll. On page 96 it asks, “Which of the following labels do you most identify with as a Democrat?” asking for a ranking of first, second, and third choices. The first-place choices?
Obama Democrat 21%
Moderate Democrat 18%
Liberal Democrat 15%
Conservative Democrat 6%
Environmentalist 6%
Progressive 5%
Clinton Democrat 5%
Democratic Socialist 4%
Fiscally Conservative Democrat 3%
Socially Conservative Democrat 3%
Socialist 2%
Trump Democrat 2%
And what about if you included any Democrat listing a label in first, second, or third place?
Obama Democrat 49%
Moderate Democrat 38%
Liberal Democrat 37%
Environmentalist 25%
Clinton Democrat 22%
Progressive 22%
Conservative Democrat 14%
Democratic Socialist 13%
Fiscally Conservative Democrat 13%
Socially Conservative Democrat 12%
Socialist 7%
Trump Democrat 5%
Libertarian 5%
Nationalist 4%
In this space, “Who’s the most progressive?” is the dominant fight. Among the voting base, there’s going to be a lot more “Who’s the successor to Barack Obama?” going on, and anyone wanting to predict how this is all going to play out needs to be listening to that conversation as well.
