The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MN-07: In mid-March, local radio host Joe Korkowski asked Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, "We're pushing in on 30 years of Congress life, when do you put up your feet and say, 'I've served my time?'" Peterson didn't address his 2020 plans, and instead talked about his goals for this Congress.
Campaign Action
Peterson, who will be 76 on Election Day, often flirts with retirement but has so far frustrated Republicans who would love to waltz into his 62-31 Trump seat. However, Peterson only beat underfunded Republican Dave Hughes 52-48 last year, which could entice a stronger candidate to run in 2020.
While Peterson has defied his district's trend so far, his time may be running out even if he does run again. Indeed, even as she was winning statewide by a comfortable 53-42, Democratic Sen. Tina Smith lost the 7th District by 55-40 in 2018's special election, and fellow Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar only eked out a 48.4-48.3 win in the 7th despite winning by a 60-36 landslide statewide.
Democrats would almost certainly have very little chance of holding the seat if Peterson retires, but with Trump at the top of the ticket in this heavily working-class white and rural district, Peterson may be in for his toughest reelection fight of his three decades in Congress.
Senate
● MN-Sen: The National Journal reports that unnamed GOP officials are trying to recruit Doug Wardlow, who was Team Red's 2018 nominee for attorney general, to challenge Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. There's no word yet on how interested Wardlow is.
Wardlow is a former state representative who was elected to his sole term in 2010 and lost two years later. During his race for attorney general last year against Democrat Keith Ellison, Wardlow generated some bad headlines when he declared he was "going to fire 42 Democratic attorneys right off the bat and get Republican attorneys in there," which seemed to run contrary to his pledge to get politics out of the office. Wardlow ended up losing 49-45, which was the closest any Republican came to winning a statewide race last year.
● NM-Sen: GOP state Sen. Mark Moores told the Santa Fe New Mexican that people have spoken to him about running for this open Senate seat. Moores, who represents a seat in the Albuquerque area that Trump carried 46-41, didn't rule it out, but said he thought it was too early to decide and that he and his family would "take some time to think about it."
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Medium Buying reports that state Attorney General Andy Beshear will launch his first TV spot of the May 21 Democratic primary on Wednesday, but there is no word on the size of the buy. Former state Auditor Adam Edelen began airing ads in mid-March, while state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins has yet to take to the airwaves.
House
● CA-39: The National Journal mentions Yorba Linda City Councilor Peggy Huang as a potential GOP candidate for an Orange County seat, and while they don't specify which one, all of Yorba Linda is located in freshman Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros' 39th District.
Cisneros narrowly beat former Assemblywoman Young Kim 52-48 last year, and while Kim doesn't seem to have said anything publicly about a rematch, she's been mentioned as a potential 2020 candidate for a while. Former Rep. Ed Royce, whom Kim used to work for, said just before Thanksgiving that he hoped she'd run again in 2020, and NJ also recently mentioned her as a possible candidate.
● CA-48: Former GOP state Sen. Janet Nguyen told the National Journal that she's considering challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda.
Nguyen, who fled from Vietnam along with her family a few years after the end of the Vietnam War, is a former Orange County supervisor who won her only term in the state Senate in 2014. Last year, Nguyen lost re-election 50.6-49.4 as Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gavin Newsom was carrying her seat 55.5-44.5 (Clinton won it by 59-36 two years before). About 40% of the 48th Congressional District is in Nguyen's old seat, so she should start with some decent name recognition if she gets in.
However, Nguyen may not have the GOP side to herself. The National Journal also mentioned Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel as a possible candidate for an Orange County seat, and while they didn't specify which one, Inside Elections' Nathan Gonzales predicted she'd run here in early March.
● FL-15: Democrat Kristen Carlson, who lost last year's open seat contest to Republican Ross Spano 53-47, has been mulling a comeback bid for a while, and she says she hopes to decide by May 1. Navy veteran Andrew Learned, who lost the primary to Carlson 53-32, has also been talking about trying again, and he told the Tampa Bay Times, "We're doing the exploratory thing." Learned doesn't appear to have opened an exploratory committee with the FEC, though it's possible he's still using his old campaign account to raise money for a potential second bid.
Spano generated some bad headlines just after his win when he admitted to accepting $180,000 in loans from two individuals, which election law experts say appears to violate the $2,700 per person limit on donations to federal campaigns. However, it remains to be seen how much damage that story will do him in 2020 in a central Florida seat that Trump carried 53-43.
● KS-03: The National Journal reports that Republicans are trying to recruit Sara Weir, the president and CEO of the National Down Syndrome Society, to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids, and that Weir is considering it. This suburban Kansas City seat narrowly backed Clinton 47-46, though Davids unseated GOP incumbent Kevin Yoder 54-44.
● MI-06: Politico reports that 2018 Democratic nominee Matt Longjohn is "seriously considering" seeking a rematch against GOP Rep. Fred Upton, though there's no quote from Longjohn. Last year Longjohn held Upton to a 50-46 win, which was by far the closest race in Upton's 32-year congressional career.
This Kalamazoo-area went from 50-49 Romney to a wider 51-43 Trump. According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, the 6th District also backed 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Schuette by a very slim 48.4-48.2 margin, and GOP Senate nominee John James won it 50-47.
● NY-11: We didn't think anyone was hankering for a Dan Donovan comeback after the Republican incumbent lost his 54-44 Trump seat to Democrat Max Rose in a 53-47 upset last year, and sure enough, he told the Republican Main Street Partnership that he doesn't plan to run again. There's no direct quote from Donovan so we can't tell how definitive he was, but we'd be quite surprised if we saw his name on the ballot next year.
● NY-15: Politico writes that a source close to former Obama administration official Elías Alcántara says that he's considering seeking this safely blue open seat in the Bronx. Alcántara, who served as senior associate director for intergovernmental affairs and now works for the investment giant the Macquarie Group, declined to comment.
