The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AZ-06: The House Ethics Committee confirmed on Wednesday that its unanimous decision last year to investigate Republican Rep. David Schweikert came about because the panel had "substantial reason" to believe Schweikert had misused congressional resources for his campaign, in violation of House ethics rules. Schweikert has said he won't resign, but the investigation and $500,000 in legal fees may have taken a toll on the congressman's standing in the 6th District, a historically Republican seat in the Phoenix suburbs that has been moving to the left in recent years.
Campaign Action
Schweikert has been accused of pressuring his congressional staff to perform political activities on his behalf. Investigators are also looking into whether he, in their words, "authorized compensation to an employee who did not perform duties commensurate with his House employment," which Roll Call previously described as code for an "off-the-books settlement" paid out to a staffer. It doesn't end there, though: The committee is also looking into whether a congressional employee gave Schweikert or his campaign improper loans or gifts.
In addition, there’s the matter of the original complaint, which the committee first publicly acknowledged last May. That complaint included allegations that Schweikert’s campaign had paid Oliver Schwab, his now-former chief of staff, considerably more than congressional staffers are allowed to earn in outside income.
Schweikert beat Democrat Anita Malik last year 55-45, which matched Trump's 52-42 margin but was by far the closest re-election of his congressional career. Malik may be hoping that the incumbent's ethical troubles and this district's leftward trend will result in a different outcome in 2020, since she just kicked off a rematch on Tuesday. However, she'll first have to get past a Democratic primary that includes physician Hiral Tipirneni, who is now running in this district after turning in a creditable performance in the neighboring (and much more conservative) 8th District last year.
Senate
● AL-Sen: The Washington Examiner reports that Republican Roy Moore is angling to run for Senate again next year, saying he told Republicans at a recent event that he would announce his plans in a matter of weeks. Moore, who lost 2017's special election to Democrat Doug Jones after multiple women accused him of preying on them when they were teenagers, has previously said he was considering a second campaign against now-Sen. Jones.
● NC-Sen: On Wednesday, former state Sen. Eric Mansfield announced that he was forming an exploratory committee for a possible bid for the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Mansfield has worked as a physician and founded an ear, nose, and throat practice in Fayetteville. He was elected to the legislature in 2010 but left two years later to run for lieutenant governor. Mansfield ended up losing the primary 56-44 to Linda Coleman, who went on to lose a very tight general election.
Two fellow Democrats, Mecklenburg County Commissioner Trevor Fuller and state Sen. Erica Smith, had previously announced bids, but neither of them has raised a credible amount of cash. Fuller brought in just $24,000 during his first quarter in the race, while Smith took in $17,000. National Democrats have been trying to recruit another candidate for months.
● NM-Sen: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and neighboring 1st District Rep. Deb Haaland have endorsed Rep. Ben Ray Luján, who is so far the only candidate running in the Democratic primary.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Former state Auditor Adam Edelen has released another new TV ad ahead of next month's Democratic primary, featuring him speaking directly to the camera. Edelen reiterates his claim that he's "the only candidate for governor not taking corporate PAC money." He then takes credit for having "locked up crooked politicians" when he was auditor, touts how he owns a small business, and introduces his wife and twin sons. Edelen once again promises to increase wages, expand Medicaid, and bring renewable energy jobs to Kentucky if elected governor.
● MS-Gov: Four former state Republican Party chairmen have endorsed former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. in a very public snub to Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. Not only did they give Waller their backing, the former chairs went on the record trashing Reeves in very uncompromising terms
Bill Powell, who was chair from 1993 to 1996, said Reeves' "arrogance really turns me off," adding that "Waller has a much more even temperament." Even more galling, former chair Clarke Reed had endorsed Reeves earlier this year but flipped his support to Waller, citing Reeves' opposition to increasing the gas tax to fund badly needed infrastructure investments.
Reeves started off as the GOP frontrunner, but there has been no polling of the Aug. 6 primary, which also includes little-known state Rep. Robert Foster, since the filing deadline passed on March 1.
● MT-Gov: A spokesperson for Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte said his boss is "seriously considering a run for governor" next year, but he didn't say when Gianforte expects to make a decision. Gianforte, who was the GOP's unsuccessful nominee for governor in 2016, would join a crowded primary with state Attorney General Tim Fox, Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, and state Sen. Al Olszewski if he were to run next year.
House
● HI-02: Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard says that she has placed her House fundraising committee on "inactive" status while she runs for president. However, she still hasn’t made it clear whether she might later try to seek re-election if she fails to win the presidential nomination.
● IA-02: State Sen. Kevin Kinney is the latest Democrat to say he's considering a campaign to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack next year. Kinney, who says he hopes to decide within the next few weeks, argues that his background as a farmer and former law enforcement officer makes him a good fit for the district, which flipped from Obama to Trump in 2016.
Meanwhile, Iowa City business owner Veronica Tessler is reportedly considering the race. Notably, Tessler opened a campaign account on April 4, which was just over a week before Loebsack announced his retirement, suggesting either that she had advance knowledge of his decision or that she had been considering challenging him in the Democratic primary. Former Johnson County party chair Tom Crasner spoke effusively of Tessler, who had campaigned for a slate of liberal candidates in Iowa City's 2017 local elections, as someone who would bring a strong progressive voice to the race.
● NC-03: The anti-tax hardliners at the Club for Growth have endorsed accountant Celeste Cairns in the crowded April 30 Republican primary, where 17 candidates are competing for the special election nomination in this heavily Republican seat. With so many contenders, there's a strong likelihood that nobody wins more than the 30% needed to avoid a July 9 runoff, so the Club's support could be a major asset for Cairns if it spends big on paid media to boost her name recognition (which it often does). In a small bit of irony, Cairns is the cousin of freshman Texas Rep. Lance Gooden, whom the Club unsuccessfully tried to defeat in last year’s GOP primary.
● NJ-07: State Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. formally announced his candidacy for the 7th District on Tuesday, giving Republicans a top-tier name against freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski. Kean, who is the son of former Gov. Tom Kean Sr., has been the GOP's leader in the state Senate since 2008. He lost New Jersey’s 2006 election for Senate to Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez 53-44 and had repeatedly been talked up for higher office since that defeat but never pulled the trigger on a bid until now, after Malinowski flipped this historically Republican North Jersey district in 2018.
● NV-02: Rep. Mark Amodei, who is the sole Republican in Nevada's congressional delegation, reiterated that he intends to run for re-election on Tuesday. However, Amodei suggested he could face a primary from either 2018 gubernatorial nominee Adam Laxalt or from perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian, who recently moved into this northern Nevada district after having lost as the GOP nominee in Nevada's southernmost 3rd District in both 2016 and 2018.
It would be quite the feat for Tarkanian to make a run for three out of Nevada's four congressional districts this decade: He also lost the 2012 general election in the 4th District. However, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he could seek the Silver State’s lone safely Republican seat seeing as he’s run and lost six different campaigns since 2004 and bailed on two others. But despite Amodei’s fears, neither Laxalt nor Tarkanian has said anything publicly about potentially running against the congressman, who has no obvious apostasies that would appear to make him vulnerable in a GOP primary.
● NY-02: Democrat Liuba Grechen Shirley, who was the 2018 House nominee against longtime Republican Rep. Pete King, says she's "seriously considering" another campaign next year. Grechen Shirley held King to just a modest 53-47 win last year, which was his smallest victory margin since he won his first term all the way back in 1992.
● NY-10: Democrat Lindsey Boylan, who is a former economic advisor to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has filed paperwork with the FEC ahead of a possible primary challenge to longtime Rep. Jerry Nadler for this dark blue Manhattan-based seat. Boylan hasn't directly confirmed whether she's actually running or why she thinks voters should fire Nadler, who has long been a vocal liberal leader.
● NY-24: Democrat Dana Balter announced on Tuesday that she's running for a rematch against Republican Rep. John Katko, who defeated her by 53-47 in 2018. Balter, who was previously a visiting professor at Syracuse University, won the Democratic nomination last year by a wide margin over a DCCC-backed candidate, but she nevertheless lost in one of just three Clinton districts that Republicans managed to hold in 2018. Balter joins a Democratic primary that includes Navy veterans Francis Conole and Roger Misso, but it's possible more candidates could join the field.
● OR-02: Republican Rep. Greg Walden recently denied that he's looking at retiring, saying he wants to be chair of the Energy and Commerce Committee, which he could do only if Republicans regain the House majority. Channeling his inner Lebowski, Walden explained, "I'm a chairman in exile, dude. I've got two more years as chairman. That's my focus."
One factor that had contributed to speculation that Walden could call it quits next year is the fact that he has voted with Trump's position much less often during this Congress despite holding a safely red district, siding with Trump only 59% of the time this year compared to 99% from 2017 to 2018, according to FiveThirtyEight. However, Walden, who previously chaired the NRCC and is a member in good standing with the party establishment, simply claims he faces much less pressure to toe the party line now that the GOP is in the minority.
● UT-04: Utahpolicy.com reports that both state Sen. Dan McCay and state Rep. Kim Coleman are considering campaigns against freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams next year, and neither Republican is saying no. McCay said, "I have a few things left to do before I hang up my cleats in Utah," and Coleman responded, "I've had some people talk to me. It's an interesting challenge and I'll give it some thought." No notable Republicans have launched a campaign yet, but the GOP has a very deep bench in this historically red district.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's lone special election:
CT-HD-19: Democrat Tammy Exum defeated Republican Bob Margolis 63-37 to win this West Hartford seat. While an easy Democratic victory here was the likely outcome on paper, Democrats had underperformed badly in other special elections in Connecticut this year, so Exum's comfortable margin was a welcome change.
In the end, this district's partisan lean won out, making Exum the second black person to win a state House seat in a non-urban area in the last five months. The makeup of the chamber returns to a 90-60 advantage for Democrats with one vacancy, which will be filled on May 7.
Mayoral
● Nashville, TN Mayor: Metro Councilman John Cooper, the brother of local Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper, announced on Monday that he would challenge Democratic Mayor David Briley in this August's nonpartisan primary.
Cooper had said back in February that he would sit the race out, but this week, he said that he had changed his mind because of Briley's agenda, including a proposed $750 million affordable housing plan that Cooper argued was badly planned out. Cooper added that he expects to be his campaign's largest donor, though he didn't reveal how much he was willing to self-fund. He also said he didn't expect his brother to provide much aid to his bid.
During his four years representing the whole city on the Metro Council (the legislative body for Nashville), Cooper frequently found himself opposing both Briley and his predecessor, former Mayor Megan Barry. The Tennessean's Nate Rau writes that Cooper "has vocally opposed economic incentive deals, city land sales, and [a] ballot referendum to create a financing mechanism for mass transit." In kicking off his mayoral bid, Cooper argued that the city's policy of using incentives to attract businesses was a "trickle-down approach" that wasn't helping neighborhoods other than downtown.
A few other candidates were already challenging Briley. The mayor's other main opponents are Democratic state Rep. John Ray Clemmons and Carol Swain, a conservative law professor who lost the 2018 special election to Briley 54-23. The candidate filing deadline is May 16, and the nonpartisan primary will be held Aug. 1. If no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff on a later date.
