We’ve been tracking the approval ratings of several key Democrats over the past several years at Civiqs. It’s not data we generally make public, but I’ll try to surface some of this when interesting stuff happens.
For example, it turns out that Bernie Sanders—protected by Republicans and Russians seeking to damage Hillary Clinton in 2015-16—now looks like a pretty generic Democrat once those protections are removed.
While it’s been a while since he’s been as popular with the general public as some seem to think (and it’s not just us seeing that decline in his numbers), his popularity took a real dive the day after the 2018 elections. Once he was seen as a presidential candidate, particularly in this crowded field with several great candidates, his numbers tanked.
A big chunk of that decline has come from independents (from 46-42 approvals the day before the election, to 35-50 today), not sure why that might be. What is probably easier to explain is his marked decline among Democrats:
For comparison’s sake, here is where other 2020 Democrats stand today among registered voters and Democrats according to Civiqs data, ranked by net positives among Democrats:
|
Registered voters |
Democrats |
Dem net |
|
(Approve)-(Disapprove) |
Joe Biden |
42-45 |
78-11 |
+67 |
Elizabeth Warren |
35-50 |
67-12 |
+55 |
Kamala Harris |
34-48 |
64-11 |
+53 |
Cory Booker |
29-48 |
56-14 |
+42 |
Bernie Sanders |
34-52 |
60-21
|
+39 |
Amy klobuchar |
18-42 |
32-19 |
+13 |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
16-48 |
28-24 |
+4 |
Joe Biden has by far the highest favorability rating among the current 2020 field, but watch that sink like a rock as he becomes hyper-partisanized. Same thing unfortunately happened to Hillary Clinton in 2015. It happened to Sanders just now (see chart above to confirm). Remember how everyone loved Beto O’Rourke and then he announced and everyone shit on him? Exactly, that. Now it’s Biden’s turn. Running for president has a way of trashing your numbers.
Klobuchar, Gillibrand, and Booker all have low name ID, which reflects in how little impact they’ve had on the race thus far. But wow, Klobuchar and Gillibrand are not making a good impression out of the gate… What few Democrats know they exist aren’t impressed.
Anyway, let’s look at the first column, the one tracking favorability ratings among all registered voters. Note how the numbers for Sanders, Warren and Harris are nearly identical. Let’s call that the “generic Democrat” number. What is Nancy Pelosi’s number? 37-53. Yup, that’s “generic Democrat”. Now that Biden has re-engaged politically, he’ll be there in a month or so.
So yes, Bernie Sanders is now at “generic Democrat” levels. There is nothing magical about him (or any other Democrat, including, eventually, Joe Biden) that allows him to rise above that number. He doesn’t have special sauce with the broader electorate. He is, like the rest, generic. Popularity-wise, he is a conventional politician.
The numbers that should worry the Bernie people, however, are the ones among Democrats. His unfavorables are much higher than that of the top-tier candidates. Double as high! I mean, he’s below Booker in net favorabilities, and when’s the last time anyone remembered Booker existed?
Which is perhaps why he has given up trying to grow his coalition and is focused instead on keeping his 30 percent-coalition intact — enough, he thinks, to win in a brokered convention. (Seriously, click on that link and read that piece. It’s good.)
Instead of playing to grow his support, he’s playing to emerge from a fractured field. Apparently, he’s decided that is easier than adjusting his message, image, and outreach efforts to appeal to a broader constituency. And given where his numbers are headed, that may actually be his best play.
(p.s. Trump’s favorable ratings, by the way, are at 43-54. Yeah, this is scary shit. Seriously.)