Against the backdrop of all the crazy Donald Trump brings on an hourly basis, the government still has to work and that means Congress has to keep it running. It's in the best interest of the entire nation, minus Trump, for Congress to pass regular spending bills by September 30 for fiscal year 2020, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi are trying to do just that. But that has some big pitfalls for Trump.
Pelosi and McConnell want regular appropriations and no more short-term continuing resolutions that Trump can use to shut down government again. Both Pelosi and McConnell want to try to avoid the cuts that forced the Budget Control Act from 2011, the law that averted a debt ceiling crisis by setting automatic spending cuts, for their own interests. Pelosi needs to avoid further domestic spending cuts and fight for increases. McConnell needs a plan than can get 60 votes and not allow Trump the opportunity to shut down the government. The White House doesn't want McConnell making any deals with Pelosi, since the deal would have raised both defense and non-defense spending to pass.
Trump doesn't want to go into re-election having to tell his rabid base that he's increased spending unless it's for the military, which he wants huge increases for. He reportedly would agree to a year-long continuing resolution that freezes spending at current levels but adds money to the Pentagon's slush fund, the Overseas Contingency Operations fund. Trump is reportedly frustrated with McConnell for not having nailed down a deal yet, because he clearly doesn't know how anything works. Congress hasn't decided on a budget as early as April in who knows how long. This in turn raises the stakes for McConnell, because he doesn't need to be on the wrong side of Trump facing his own re-election campaign in 2020. He's already getting heat from the maniac side of the fiscal equation on this.
"Quite frankly I don't know what Trump would trust McConnell to negotiate," Rachel Bovard, the senior director of policy at the Conservative Partnership Institute carps. "Trump said from the outset he doesn't want a [spending] caps deal and McConnell's first instinct is to say, 'Okay, we're getting a caps deal.'" So that's fun.
Add into the mix the debt ceiling hike that is going to be coming due in later summer or early fall, which as of right now the administration doesn't want to weaponize (but it's Trump, that's subject to change by the minute). And on top of all that, everyone would like to go into 2020 with something accomplished, hence it is once again infrastructure week with a big meeting on Tuesday between Trump and all the congressional leadership of appropriate committees.
Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer are setting the meeting up with high expectations, writing to tell Trump that the nation's infrastructure demand is "massive." Not to mention that it "should go beyond addressing roads and bridges and should also include provisions to enhance broadband, water systems, energy, schools and housing," as well as investments to buttress existing infrastructure in the face of climate change.
It is possible the nation will get out of 2019 without a fiscal disaster, but at this point I wouldn't take any bets.
