The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● State Supreme Courts: Although Democrats appeared on Tuesday to be on track to lose an important Wisconsin Supreme Court race pending a likely recount (see our WI Supreme Court item below), progressives have more opportunities to score key wins in 2020 court races across the nation. Indeed, state supreme courts provide a critical opportunity for Democrats to block Republican gerrymanders and GOP-backed laws that restrict the right to vote.
Campaign Action
As Stephen Wolf has mapped and detailed looking at each justice up for election, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin all feature important court races in 2020 that could either give Democrats a majority or set them up to gain one in the next election. Just as Pennsylvania's court did in 2018, Democratic majorities could strike GOP gerrymanders down using protections contained in practically every state constitution.
1Q Fundraising
Senate
● IA-Sen, IA-04: Democrat J.D. Scholten, who held white supremacist Rep. Steve King to a 50-47 win last year in the red 4th District, told the National Journal that he will be "most likely" running for something again next year. Scholten, who has been considering another bid against King or a run against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst, he said this week that he will take some time to decide what to do, and that he hopes to announce his plans by mid-May.
● NM-Sen: On Wednesday, Rep. Xochitl Torres Small announced that she would not run for this open Senate seat, which was good news for House Democrats who would have had a tough time defending her competitive House district without her. Fellow freshman Rep. Deb Haaland did express interest in seeking the Democratic nod last week right after Sen. Tom Udall announced he would retire, but she's said little since then, and local political writer Joe Monahan wrote on Tuesday that she's "not expected" to seek a promotion.
The final member of New Mexico's all-blue House delegation, Rep. and former DCCC chair Ben Ray Luján, is running, but he may face some primary opposition. Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver has said she's considering, and Monahan replays that she's said she'll decide this month, though there's no quote from her. Toulouse Oliver won a four-year term back in November, so unlike the state's trio of House members, she can run for the Senate without sacrificing her current post.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Former state Auditor Adam Edelen is out with a new ad ahead of the May 21 Democratic primary where he declares that in the state capitol "lobbyists outnumber lawmakers 15 to 1," and GOP Gov. Matt Bevin "is just another sellout." Edelen tells the audience he's the one candidate for governor who isn't taking corporate PAC money and that "the only person I'll work for is you."
● UT-Gov: Former Utah Republican Party chair Thomas Wright, who currently serves on the Republican National Committee's executive committee, tells Utah Policy that he's considering a bid for governor. Wright is the son of the late Bob Wright, whose 1980 defeat against Democratic incumbent Scott Matheson gives him the distinction of being the last Republican nominee to lose a race for governor of Utah. Utah Policy writes that the younger Wright has the "capacity to invest significant personal resources in the campaign."
House
● CA-25: Republican Suzette Martinez Valladares, who runs what WHTS describes as "a faith-based nonprofit that provides childcare and quality preschool to families," announced this week that she would oppose freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill. Valladares, who previously worked as an aide to former Rep. Buck McKeon, ran in the 2014 top-two primary for a local state Assembly seat and took fourth place with 9% of the vote.
This seat, which includes northern Los Angeles County, is historically Republican turf that has been turning away from Team Red in recent years. Hillary Clinton carried the seat 50-44 and two years later, Hill unseated GOP Rep. Steve Knight 54-46. Also last year, Democrat Gavin Newsom won this seat 51-49 in the gubernatorial race.
● CA-45: This week, GOP Yorba Linda City Councilor Peggy Huang announced that she would take on freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. As we've noted before, Yorba Linda is entirely located in the 39th District, a seat represented by freshman Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros. It's not clear why Huang isn't running in the district where she's been on the ballot before, though it's possible that Republican power players have someone else in mind to take on Cisneros.
● GA-07: This week, Democratic state Rep. Pete Marin announced that he would not seek this competitive open seat.
● NJ-05: Montvale Mayor Michael Ghassali told the New Jersey Globe that he's interested in seeking the GOP nod to take on Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in this competitive North Jersey seat, and that he hopes to decide by June 5, the date of this year's state primaries.
Ghassali, a Syrian Christian who fled violence in Aleppo along with his family when he was 15, attracted some attention in February of 2017. After the Trump administration issued an executive order suspending travel from Syria and other predominantly Muslim nations, Ghassali responded by pledging that he would "not be signing any executive orders that will ask our employees to defy federal laws," even ones he disagreed with. Ghassali's decision delighted local conservatives, with radio and TV personality Bill Spadea praising him as "truly the epitome of the American dream." A few other Republicans are eyeing this seat.
● NM-03, NM-Sen: With Rep. Ben Ray Luján's decision to run for the Senate opening up northern New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, a wide array fellow Democrats are now hoping to succeed him, but a whole lot of scrutiny is in order. Case in point: Freshman state Rep. Joseph Sanchez was the first Democrat to announce a bid, but he's very much not someone progressives should want in Congress, especially not representing a reliably blue seat like this.
Back in February, the state House passed a bill to repeal a 1969 law that made it a felony to perform an abortion in most cases, yet Sanchez was one of six Democrats in the chamber to oppose it. And despite support from Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, conservative Democrats and Republicans in the state Senate killed the repeal effort the following month.
The current anti-abortion law is currently unenforceable thanks to Roe v. Wade, but there's the terrifying possibility that a U.S. Supreme Court decision could make provisions like this one more than just a legal relic. And unfortunately, another Democratic legislator who opposed the repeal may also run here, as state Sen. Carlos Cisneros has not ruled out a bid of his own.
The only other declared Democrat so far is Colfax County Democratic Party chair Mark McDonald, who works for a medical helicopter company. McDonald was the 2018 Democratic nominee for a dark red state House seat that Trump had carried 62-28, which he lost 62-38.
A number of other Democrats are also eyeing this seat. Valerie Plame, the covert CIA agent whose identity was leaked by the Bush administration in 2003, says she's considering this race in addition to the Senate contest. State Public Regulation Commission member Valerie Espinoza, who is termed-out from her current post in 2020, says she's leaning towards entering this race, while Santa Fe County District Attorney Marco Serna and Española Mayor Joseph Maestas have also expressed interest. Local reporter Joe Monahan also writes that Sandoval County Treasurer Laura Montoya is weighing a bid.
Then there's former state Rep. Carl Trujillo, who says he hasn't made any decisions about running here. Trujillo lost his seat in a primary last year 53-47 after a lobbyist named Laura Bonar accused him of sexual harassment and then retaliating when she rejected his advances. The state legislature found that there was enough evidence to investigate Trujillo, but the charges were dismissed after Bonar declined to testify. Trujillo, who has denied the allegations, has a pending defamation lawsuit against her and three other woman he claims tried to smear him.
Meanwhile, several Democrats have said no to a bid. They include Attorney General Hector Balderas, Santa Fe Mayor Alan Webber, state House Speaker Brian Egolf, state Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard, and state Senate Majority Leader Peter Wirth.
This seat backed Clinton 52-37 and should remain in Democratic hands without much trouble, but a few Republicans are looking at the race. Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, who leads the district's largest city, says he's giving the idea "serious consideration." Former state Public Regulations Commission Pat Lyons also says he's eyeing this seat as well as the open Senate contest. Lyons, who previously served as state land commissioner, ran to reclaim that post last year but lost 51-43.
● NY-11: Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis entered the GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose soon after meeting with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, and while McCarthy doesn't appear to have publicly endorsed her, Politico's Laura Barrón-López notes that he's contributed the maximum possible amount to her campaign. Disgraced former Rep. Mike Grimm, who very much is not the establishment favorite, is also considering running.
● TX-17: Software developer Rick Kennedy, who ran against Republican Rep. Bill Flores in 2018, announced on Tuesday that he'd try again this cycle. Though Flores won their first matchup 57-41, that was actually the closest race of the congressman's career, despite the fact that Kennedy raised almost nothing—and that even includes Flores' first race in 2010, when he unseated Blue Dog Rep. Chet Edwards 62-37 amid the GOP wave. It'll be difficult for Kennedy to turn the tables, though, as this central Texas district voted for Trump by a 56-39 margin and even supported Ted Cruz 54-45 last year, according to the Texas Legislative Council.
● TX-22: Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni, who held GOP Rep. Pete Olson to a surprisingly close 51-46 win last year, has been eyeing a second bid, and he's scheduled a "major announcement" for Saturday.
● WA-03: This week, legal mediator Peter Khalil became the first Democrat to announce a bid against GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler. Khalil, who is the son of Egyptian religious refugees, sought office once before back in 2011 when he briefly applied for appointment to a vacant seat in the state House. This southern Washington seat backed Trump 50-43, and Herrera Beutler won re-election 53-47 last year.
Judicial
● WI Supreme Court: With 100% of precincts in, conservative Brian Hagedorn holds a 50.25-49.75 lead over liberal Lisa Neubauer in Tuesday's officially nonpartisan race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court, a margin of just under 6,000 votes. Hagedorn declared victory early Wednesday while Neubauer's campaign has not conceded and says a recount is likely.
State law allows for a recount if the margin is within 1%, as this contest currently is. First, though, county election officials must do a canvass to determine the final tally, a process the Journal-Sentinel says will start next week.
If Hagedorn's lead holds, he will flip a seat left open by retiring liberal Justice Shirley Abramson and give conservatives a 5-2 majority on the bench. While conservatives will have to play defense a year from now, when conservative Dan Kelly is up for election, Hagedorn's win ensures they'll retain their majority heading into the next round of redistricting. And that in turn almost certainly means the Wisconsin Supreme Court won't act as a check on the extreme gerrymanders that Republicans have perpetrated for years.
Legislative
● Special Elections: Pam Iovino's win in Pennsylvania garnered most of the attention but there were two other special elections Tuesday night. We recap those here.
ME-HD-52: Democrat Sean Paulhus easily defeated Republican Kenneth Sener 67-33 to hold this Bath area seat. Democrats now control the state House by an 88-56 margin with one vacancy. That remaining vacancy will be filled with a special election on June 11.
MS-HD-101: Kent McCarty, a 26-year-old businessman, beat fellow Republican Steven Utroska 68-32 to hold this deep red seat in southern Mississippi. McCarty will finish the end of former state Rep. Brad Touchstone's term that expires on Dec. 31. Republicans maintain a wide advantage in the Mississippi state House.
Mayoral
● Kansas City, MO Mayor: Kansas City held its nonpartisan primary on Tuesday, and City Councilors Jolie Justus and Quinton Lucas advanced to the June 18 general election. Justus, who had the support of termed-out Mayor Sly James and EMILY's List, led with 23% of the vote while Lucas defeated Councilor Alissia Canady 18-13 to claim the other general election spot.
Both general election candidates have compelling personal stories. Justus, a former state Senate Democratic leader, was the chamber's first gay member, and she would again make history if she won in June. Lucas, who was raised by a single mother, grew up poor and his family was at times homeless, but he secured scholarships to attend college and law school. Lucas did attract some unwelcome headlines during the campaign after he was arrested for a DUI while sleeping in his parked car in October, but the story didn't stop him from advancing to the general.
Both candidates have a record of pursuing criminal justice reform and affordable housing. Justus has been a consistent ally of James and she was the one primary candidate to back his referendum to expand pre-kindergarten programs through a sales tax increase, which lost 66-34 on Tuesday. Justus has called for continuing the city's expansion, while Lucas has criticized incentives for developers.
One possible fault-line between the candidates is how much they want local control of the police department. Kansas City is the largest city in America that does not control its police; instead, decisions are made by a five-member board of commissioners appointed by the governor of Missouri. This arrangement has been in place since 1939 when the state took control of the police from local political boss Tom Pendergast, an early political mentor to future President Harry Truman, who had deliberately kept cops' wages low so that officers would be more likely to accept bribes from Pendergast allies.
Both Justus and Lucas told the NPR affiliate KCUR that they were for local control. However, Lucas listed this as a major priority, while Justus did not. As local criminologist Ken Novak noted for the story, it will be difficult for Kansas City to take control of its police force from the state without plenty of effort and energy on the mayor's part. St. Louis, Missouri's other major city, also had its police under state control until 2013, and the switch only happened after years of lobbying by city officials that finally culminated in a successful 2012 statewide referendum.
Other Races
● Las Vegas, NV City Council: On Tuesday, disgraced former Rep. Ruben Kihuen's comeback bid failed by all of 5 votes. Former Democratic Assemblymember Olivia Diaz led the nonpartisan race to represent Ward 3 on the Las Vegas City Council with 33% of the vote while neighborhood activist Melissa Clary held a 28.25-28.09 edge over Kihuen for the other spot in the June general election. While the race was close enough for Kihuen to request a recount, his campaign consultant said Wednesday he would not ask for one.
Kihuen was a rising Democratic star in the state legislature, and he won a competitive House race in 2016. In late 2017, multiple women accused him of sexual harassment, and he soon announced he would retire after just a single term. Kihuen vehemently denied doing anything wrong at the time, and after the Ethics Committee released their report in November, he still didn't acknowledge the extent of his transgressions. Kihuen told the Nevada Independent that while he disagreed with some parts of the report, it "saddens me greatly to think I made any woman feel that way due to my own immaturity and overconfidence. I extend my sincere apologies to each of these women."
According to the women who testified against him, what Kihuen called "immaturity and overconfidence" includes (but is not limited to) suggesting to a firm's employee that he would help advance her career if they were in a relationship, touching a campaign staffer's thigh and suggesting they get a hotel room, and telling a lobbyist that they should make a sex tape. Witnesses also told the Ethics Committee that he'd called a primary foe a "slut" in front of his campaign staff and asked a woman who was employed at a firm working for him if she'd consider cheating on her husband.
Nevada Democrats were none too happy to see Kihuen running for the city council. Sens. Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto backed Diaz, as did the powerful Culinary Union. State Assemblywoman Heidi Swank also attracted attention by founding a PAC called No Means No, Ruben. In the end, it was just enough to stop Kihuen from advancing to the general election.