The following is the Bernie Election and Revolution News (BERN), presented by as a collaborative effort of The Political Revolution group of The Daily Kos.
This week we’ll touch on a few topics from the newly recognized front-runner status of Bernie Sanders’ once insurgent campaign; new polling that puts Sen. Sanders ahead in Massachusetts against all-comers declared or otherwise; similar polling showing the Senator leading all candidates with Latinos, and all declared candidates with African-Americans (we see you Joe, lol!).
We’ll also cover the Senator’s latest Medicare-for-All push in the Senate in contrast to the calls for simply strengthening the ACA coming from the leadership in the House, his argument against “right-to-work” legislation at the state level, and lastly, Sen. Sanders’ latest plans to tour the who-even-knew-they-were battlegrounds of Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as the now red-state of Pennsylvania.
Lastly, a campaign development that might put some people’s Twitter careers in the tank; or at least drive them to find new some content.
And it sure is hard to keep up with the old dude from Vermont, a former marathon runner, given all the news he’s making; but let’s get started...
These past 10 days has been critical for Bernie Sanders campaign from a fundraising and overall support standpoint. Supported by an activist volunteer base of over one million Americans, with over 525,000 individual donors raising $18M in Q1 and ending the quarter with a projected $28M cash-on-hand, overshadowing any other campaign’s haul at this early stage of the race.
Sanders is poised to come out of the gates, again very early on, with no other candidate having the same financial ability to compete across the nation. There is also something to be said about the (increasing) number of candidates in the race; and the potential that many of the candidates could be splitting the same finite donor pool into ever-smaller slices — all before the inevitable declaration of Vice President Joe Biden.
At this point, undeniably, Sanders has a defined base of multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-generational people across the country supporting his bid for the Presidency. It’s early, and Biden still hasn’t declared; but this is truly new territory for the Senator from Vermont.
This week the Associated Press, Chicago Sun-Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, and CNN among others have all acknowledged Bernie Sanders in the front of the pack. Looking back on the week (in reverse order) here’s some takes from the press:
www.apnews.com/...
DAVENPORT, Iowa (AP) — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is quieting critics who questioned whether he could recapture the energy of his upstart 2016 campaign, surpassing his rivals in early fundraising and establishing himself as an indisputable front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Less than two months into his second White House bid , no other declared candidate in the crowded Democratic field currently has amassed so many advantages: a $28 million war chest, a loyal and enthusiastic voter base and a set of clearly defined policy objectives.
That puts Sanders on markedly different footing than during his first White House run, creating new challenges for a candidate whose supporters relish his role as an underdog and an outsider. He now carries the weight of high expectations and will face heightened scrutiny over everything from the cost and feasibility of his government-funded policy proposals to his tax returns, which he has not yet released. He initially blamed “mechanical issues” for the delay, and his campaign now says he wants to wait until after the April 15 tax filing deadline to fulfill his promise to release a decade worth of returns .
Sanders has largely embraced his new front-runner status. More than any other candidate, he draws explicit comparisons with President Donald Trump in his campaign remarks, previewing his approach to a general election faceoff with the incumbent Republican.
www.latimes.com/...
Stop thinking of Bernie Sanders as a gadfly. He’s the front-runner
In case you missed it, Bernie Sanders is now, for all practical purposes, the front-runner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The Vermont socialist pulled in $18 million in the first three months of 2019, most of it from small donors. His nearest rival, Kamala Harris, collected $12 million, with others far behind.
Sanders’ campaign is off to a strong start by other measures, too. He says he has signed up more than 1 million volunteers for (in his words) “a grassroots effort the likes of which has never been seen.” He’s staged rallies from coast to coast, drawing crowds of 10,000 or more.
In national polls, he runs second to the most popular undeclared candidate, Joe Biden. But surveys show Sanders ahead of Biden in Iowa and tied for first in New Hampshire, the two states that hold the earliest contests.
Which brings us full-circle to:
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Pretty interesting.
Let’s see how Q2 plays out, but if it was anything like Q1, I think Bernie Sanders will be in a very good position given his broad support from small-donors, his consistency on the issues, and the fact that there is a great deal of room for him to continue to grow with certain demographics. Which brings us to our next topic.
Shocker!
Contrary to what some might think, Bernie’s popularity among people of color seems to be doing just fine; particularly with respect to the largest minority demographic in the country, Hispanics.
theintercept.com/...
VERMONT SEN. BERNIE SANDERS is leading every other presidential candidate in support from Hispanic voters, who make up a significant chunk of his base, recent polling finds. Sustaining this support will be critical to Sanders’s shot at the Democratic nomination, as Latinx voters will be the largest racial or ethnic minority group in the electorate by 2020, and wield greater influence over the outcome of the nomination than in previous elections due to changes in the primary calendar.
The polling, which was done by Morning Consult and shared with The Intercept, shows that Sanders’s support among Hispanic voters is at 33 percent, though those results are not broken down by age, which could be a determining factor in the primary vote. Sanders generally performs best among young voters, and a turnout of young Latinx voters would likely benefit him more than if older Latinx voters show up to the polls.
Now, opinions on The Intercept aside, I disagree with the notion that Latinx voters will be the largest minority group in the electorate; however they are the largest minority group in the country. So I would take that opinion with a huge grain of salt (due to much higher turnout among African-Americans, and African-Americans much larger voter share within the Democratic primaries).
However, that being said, states like Nevada, California, Texas and Illinois have relatively large Latino populations and if Sanders continues to grow his lead within this base it will certainly bode well for his campaign in these states as well as others.
Getting into Morning Consults data; Joe Biden looks very solid — but again, having not declared yet, it’s really hard to say how these numbers will hold up and if Bernie’s “front-runner” status will be a long-lasting trend, or will end the moment Biden declares. For the time being, I’ve italicized Biden and emphasized figures that were second place with respect to ethnicity (Harris / Beto, for African-Americans and Hispanics respectively).
2020 Democratic Candidates |
Female |
Male |
Hispanic |
Black |
Name Recognition |
Total Among Democratic Primary Voters |
Early Primary State Voters |
Joe Biden |
34% |
33% |
24% |
36% |
97% |
33% |
37% |
Bernie Sanders |
25% |
25% |
33% |
25% |
99% |
25% |
28% |
Elizabeth Warren |
8% |
6% |
7% |
4% |
87% |
7% |
8% |
Cory Booker |
4% |
5% |
3% |
8% |
75% |
4% |
6% |
Kamala Harris |
9% |
8% |
8% |
11% |
78% |
8% |
5% |
Beto O’Rourke |
7% |
9% |
13% |
6% |
77% |
8% |
4% |
Pete Buttigieg |
3% |
4% |
2% |
1% |
48% |
3% |
3% |
Someone else |
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
N/A |
3% |
3% |
Amy Klobuchar |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
62% |
2% |
2% |
Julián Castro |
1% |
1% |
4% |
1% |
66% |
1% |
1% |
John Delaney |
1% |
1% |
1% |
0% |
57% |
1% |
1% |
Kirsten Gillibrand |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
71% |
1% |
1% |
John Hickenlooper |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
41% |
1% |
1% |
Steve Bullock |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
45% |
1% |
0% |
Tulsi Gabbard |
0% |
1% |
0% |
0% |
46% |
1% |
0% |
Jay Inslee |
1% |
0% |
0% |
0% |
46% |
1% |
0% |
Terry McAuliffe |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
52% |
0% |
0% |
Sample Size |
7136 |
5804 |
1515 |
2753 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
Comparatively, it’s interesting to note not only is Bernie Sanders ahead of Biden with Latinos, who is otherwise enjoying broad support within the party at this point; but that Sanders’ numbers with African-Americans are more than twice as high as the next declared candidate.
And it may be tempting to look to your right at the name-recognition column and think as that number climbs, this chart will radically change. And it might; I would certainly expect it to as well. But to quote Nate Silver over at 538:
fivethirtyeight.com/...
...On balance, I suspect that smart observers of the political process don’t give enough consideration to early polls, such as the CNN/Des Moines Register poll of Iowa caucus-goers (conducted by top-rated polling firm Selzer & Co.) that came out last weekend. As we documented in a three-part series back in 2011,1 the notion that early polling is meaningless or solely reflects name recognition — a popular view even among people we usually agree with — is wrong, full stop.
Other things held equal, for instance, a candidate polling at 25 percent in early polls is five or six times more likely to win the primary than one polling at 5 percent. It would be equally if not more wrong to say whoever leads in early polls is certain to win the nomination. (A candidate at 25 percent is still a sizable underdog relative to the field, for instance.) But I don’t hear anyone saying that. At least, I haven’t heard anyone saying it about the Democrats leading in the polls — Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders — so far this year.
I highly suggest reading this piece, not necessarily for Bernie News; but as an interesting aside about early-polling:
That being said, it also important to note that there is significant overlap between the youth vote (18-29) and the Latinx vote, as the majority of Latinx voters are under the age of 45 and comprise the youngest voting demographic in the country.
Among all young people, regardless of race or ethnicity, Bernie Sanders enjoys a sizable advantage in the most recent polling:
thehill.com/...
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) holds a double-digit lead among young voters in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary, according to a poll released Monday.
Thirty-one percent of likely voters between 18 and 29 years old surveyed by Harvard University's Institute of Politics said they prefer the Vermont lawmaker in a hypothetical primary.
Former Vice President Joe Biden was the first pick of 20 percent of respondents, while former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) received 10 percent of the support. No other candidate received more than 5 percent.
The youth vote has plenty of time to shift though, as 20 percent of the likely voters said they remain undecided.
“Proving that young voters see more than age, it’s notable that the candidates with the most experience in government service are leading a diverse field at this early stage in the process,” John Della Volpe, director of polling for the Institute of Politics, said in a statement.
Looking at it from a more local lens, in a newly released poll of the state of Massachusetts
As a both a Warren and Sanders supporter this is bittersweet. But recent polling by Emerson shows Bernie Sanders with a 3% lead (within the MoE, admittedly) over Joe Biden in Massachusetts. This poll is likely more important than just measuring the single state as there is likely to be similar attitudes held across the region including most importantly the bordering state of New Hampshire.
emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/...
The first Emerson Poll in Massachusetts of the 2020 primary finds Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders with 26% of the vote in the Democratic field, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 23%, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren at 14%, Mayor of South Bend Pete Buttigieg at 11%, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke at 8%, and California Senator Kamala Harris at 7%. 5% of voters are looking for another candidate. (April 4-7, n=371, +/- 5%).
According to Spencer Kimball, Director of Emerson Polling, “this is a concern for Warren who at this time does not have a firewall in her home state, and her rival Sanders has a strong base in the Bay State.”
Of those who supported Sanders in the 2016 primary, about 45% plan to support him in 2020. In the 2016 primary in Massachusetts, he captured almost 48% of the Democratic vote against Hillary Clinton.
There continues to be a growing age divide among Democrats, with younger voters breaking for Sanders, and older voters breaking for Biden. Those 18-29 break for Sanders 52%, 15% for O’Rourke, and 10% each for Biden and Warren. Voters between the ages of 30-49 lean towards Sanders and Warren, receiving 27% and 22% respectively. Meanwhile 30% of voters in the age range of 50-64 favor Biden, Warren and Sanders follow with 14% and 13% respectively. Biden is most popular among voters over the age of 65, with the former Vice President receiving 33% of their vote. Mayor Pete follows with 16% of the vote and Sanders with 14%.
Sen. Sanders as of Wednesday morning will be introducing his latest iteration of his Medicare-for-All legislation in the Senate. This is huge news as the leadership in the House, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, seems to be rhetorically pushing back on the idea of a radical change to the U.S. health insurance system urging using the ACA as the means of expanding care rather than upending the system.
But Bernie ain’t havin’ it though...
www.cnn.com/...
(CNN) ... The new legislation's big-name co-sponsors include four of Sanders' fellow 2020 Democratic contenders -- Sens. Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker and Kirsten Gillibrand -- all of whom also signed onto an earlier version Sanders put out in 2017.
By unveiling his proposal now, Sanders is effectively doubling down on his signature policy idea and betting that his calls to eliminate private medical insurers will be a winning one with Democratic voters, even as the party rallies around Obamacare amid an escalating court battle instigated by Republicans and backed by President Donald Trump.
But the move could light a match to a simmering debate within the Democratic Party, pitting Sanders against other candidates, including some of the Senate bill's co-sponsors, over the best path toward universal coverage. It is a fight Sanders appears to welcome.
...
Warren, Harris and Booker have all signaled their willingness to consider compromise plans that allow private insurers a role to play in any new or revamped system. They're up against moderates like Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who has said she is not in favor of Medicare for All...
Meanwhile in Las Vegas (this guy gets around doesn't he?)
"Under my legislation, we will end, once and for all, the disastrous 'Right to Work' laws in 28 states." — Senator Bernie Sanders
As Bernie Sanders has historically done throughout his career, Sanders took to podium in a show of solidarity with trade unionists and workers all over this country. Rather than just offering his support, Sanders put forward a legislative proposal to ban right-to-work laws that disenfranchise workers in more than two-dozen states around the country; putting corporate interests over the most basic of rights for workers to organize and engage in collective bargaining.
thehill.com/...
Speaking to the International Association of Machinists at the union's conference in Las Vegas, Sanders said as president he would push legislation in Congress to prohibit the laws. Right-to-work laws bar unionized workplaces from negotiating contracts under which all members who benefit from the contract must contribute dues. Twenty-six states currently have right-to-work laws on the books.
“We need elected officials and candidates at every level to get serious about speaking out for the trade union movement. This should not be an afterthought,” Sanders said. “If we’re talking about growing wages, providing health care to all people, having a progressive tax system, the trade union movement must be in the middle of all of those discussions.”
Immediately on the horizon, Bernie Sanders is planning to head into the now-battleground states of Wisconsin and Michigan, as well as the recent red-state of Pennsylvania.
Campaigning as a front-runner focusing on the general election ahead, Sen. Bernie Sanders is identifying the clear need to retake the industrial Midwest states. Understanding there is an audience that’s quite receptive to his populist message; Bernie Sanders plans to barnstorm states that should be Democratic strongholds but that were lost in the 2016 Presidential Election.
With Michigan coming up one week after Super Tuesday, Wisconsin not scheduled until April 7, and Pennsylvania not until April 28; it’s clear the Senator is playing the long-game here. Sanders also plans to make stops in Ohio and Indiana on his tour through the Midwest making the case that the Democratic Party is the party that will fight for and protect the interests of disaffected working-class people of all races and backgrounds.
www.voanews.com/...
MADISON, WIS. — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders plans to hold rallies in battleground states this weekend, starting Friday night in the liberal stronghold of Madison, Wisconsin.
Sanders announced Monday that he will also hold rallies on Saturday at a community college in Warren, Michigan, and in Pittsburgh on Sunday. His campaign says additional stops in Indiana and Ohio are also planned.
Sanders says the tour will emphasize that the Democrats' "clearest and strongest path to victory in 2020 runs through the Upper Midwest."
Winning these states back is absolutely critical to any chance of victory in 2020. Donald Trump, ugh, won 306 Electoral College votes (+74 over Clinton). Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania represent a sum total of 46 EC votes. Winning these three states would have given Hillary Clinton 278 Electoral College votes, and the Presidency; even while losing Ohio, Florida and Iowa.
That being said, without these three key states (particularly WI and MI) there is likely no realistic path for the Democrats to reach 270 electoral votes.
Glad to see Bernie releasing 10-years of his returns, and I would expect every candidate in the near-future to do something along these lines. So far, Kirsten Gillibrand, and Elizabeth Warren have led the way this cycle on the issue of Presidential candidates releasing their tax returns, each having made public at least 10-years of their respective tax returns.
Hopefully this will be one less impediment for the Sanders campaign in their efforts to reach out to those .. not necessarily aligned with his campaign at this point in time.
That being said, I’m glad this is out of the way and now becomes a non-issue.
www.cbsnews.com/...
(CBS) Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a 2020 presidential candidate who has long resisted releasing his tax returns, told CBS News Tuesday that he would make them publicly available by April 15, the day tax forms are due.
"We wanted to do 10 years. We wanted to include the latest returns," Sanders told CBS News' Ed O'Keefe, indicating that he will publicly release his tax returns from 2008 through 2018.
"There isn't something in those returns that's going to make your supporters unhappy, is there?" O'Keefe asked.
"Yeah, my trillions of dollars' investment in Saudi Arabia, you got it, Ed! Right here on CBS! No, I don't think so," Sanders joked. However, he said that he had "made money" because he wrote a best-selling book, "Our Revolution," after the 2016 election.
"I make what a United States senator makes. I wrote two books in recent years. One of those books was a bestseller on the New York Times bestseller list translated into five or six languages. It did very well. I made money on that book," Sanders said, adding that there are no "great revelations" to be found.
We can only hope this will give ardent supporters of other candidates some closure to the 2016 primaries.
In other Bernie news…
Bernie Sanders isn’t “poor” anymore, LOL! He’s a “millionaire,” as CNN reports today with “BREAKING NEWS!”
Great reporting there Jake. Good job! Good effort!
But more importantly to the state of the race...
Bernie Sanders Finds 2020 Running Mate at Iowa Rally!
This is just.. way too cute.
Hope everybody is Feeling the BERN today! Thanks for stopping by!
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