The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
On Tuesday evening, North Carolina's 9th District held its primaries for the do-over special election that was called because officials invalidated the results of last year's race due to Republican election fraud. You can find the results here, which we'll be discussing in the next Morning Digest.
Leading Off
● TX-23: Air Force veteran and 2018 Democratic nominee Gina Ortiz Jones announced Tuesday that she would seek a rematch against GOP Rep. Will Hurd in Texas' very swingy 23rd Congressional District. Ortiz Jones would be the first gay person to represent Texas in Congress.
Campaign Action
Last year, Ortiz Jones lost 49.2-48.7, a margin of just 926 votes. That turned out to be a surprisingly close showing since several polls found Hurd well ahead. National Democratic groups were initially reluctant to spend much money on what looked like a very uphill race, and the NRCC even canceled its final 3 1/2 weeks' worth of ad reservations in early October in a big sign of confidence in Hurd. However, the DCCC and House Majority PAC ended up spending a total of around $840,000, and the NRCC went back on the air in the final week of the race with a $554,000 buy, both of which indicated that this race was getting closer late in the game.
While Hurd did win in the end, neither party is likely to treat him like he's the strong favorite in 2020 after his narrow escape. If anything, Hurd will likely be one of Team Blue's top targets in the country. Texas' 23rd District, which stretches from San Antonio west to the outskirts of El Paso, backed Clinton 50-46, and Hurd is one of just three House Republicans left holding a Clinton seat. Hurd is also a strong fundraiser, but Ortiz Jones actually outraised him $6.2 million to $5.1 million, so we should expect another expensive bout.
While Ortiz Jones had to get through two primary rounds last year before she could get to Hurd, she's the clear favorite to claim her party's nod this time. The only other announced Democrat is Liz Wahl, a former TV anchor for the American branch of Russia Today who in 2014 announced on the air that she was quitting from the Kremlin-funded propaganda network. However, while Wahl set up a fundraising committee late last year, she raised just $2,000 through the end of March.
Senate
● IA-Sen: This week, attorney Kimberly Graham became the first Democrat to announce a bid against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst. The Des Moines Register writes that Graham "represents abused or neglected children in the Recovery Court program as an attorney and guardian ad litem." This appears to be Graham's first run for office.
● WY-Sen: This week, wealthy businessman David Dodson didn't rule out seeking the GOP nod for this open seat. Dodson challenged Sen. John Barrasso in last year's primary and spent $1.6 million of his own money, but he lost 65-28.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: The final fundraising reports ahead of Tuesday's primaries are in, and they show that former state Auditor Adam Edelen continues to benefit from massive cash infusions from those close to his campaign.
Edelen's running mate, wealthy businessman Gill Holland, recently loaned the campaign another $1 million, bringing his total loans to $2.5 million, or almost three quarters of the campaign's receipts. Meanwhile, Holland's mother-in-law, Christy Brown, donated another $500,000 to a super PAC, Kentuckians for a Better Future, that's been running scurrilous negative ads against frontrunner Andy Beshear; Brown, an heir of the family that founded the liquor giant Brown-Forman, has now spent $1 million on behalf of the Edelen-Holland ticket.
Holland's own finances have also come under scrutiny, and he's received criticism for steadfastly refusing to release his tax returns throughout the campaign. In a debate on Monday night, though, he offered a particularly feeble rationale. His returns "have your total income," Holland explained. "And you know I've got three little kids in elementary school, and they don't need to know."
Including Holland's loans, Edelen's campaign has brought in $3.4 million for the campaign, and as of May 6, he still had $679,000 available (plus, presumably, more from Holland if he needs it). Beshear, by contrast, has raised $2.2 million and had $293,000 remaining for the stretch run, while the third candidate in the Democratic primary, state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins, has collected $1.6 million and had $487,000 remaining. Neither Adkins nor Beshear have received super PAC support.
As for the Republicans, it doesn't look like incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin has much to worry about from his lone challenger, state Rep. Robert Gofoth. Bevin has raised $1 million and is also capable of self-funding, while Goforth has raised almost nothing outside of a $750,000 loan he made to his own campaign that a bunch of nebbish consultants couldn't be happier about. A super PAC seeded with $250,000 from the RGA spent $124,000 in the last week of April and first week in May to boost Bevin, but it seems to have been unnecessary, as a new survey from Republican pollster Cygnal (on whose behalf it's not clear) finds Bevin smashing Goforth 56-18.
● LA-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards went up with a one-day TV ad buy on Tuesday in the Lake Charles media market that coincides with Donald Trump's visit to the area. The spot argues that Trump's appearance is "confirmation that we are moving in the right direction."
● UT-Gov: On Tuesday, Lt. Gov. Spencer Cox became the first notable Republican to announce a bid to succeed Utah Gov. Gary Herbert in next year's race. While Herbert himself didn't rule out running again earlier this year, Cox's announcement almost certainly means that the outgoing governor won't be seeking another term after all. Herbert held a fundraiser for Cox in January and declared at the time that, while he wasn't saying "never" to another campaign, he wouldn't be raising money for Cox if he didn't want his lieutenant governor in the race.
Like many Republicans, Cox was an ardent Donald Trump critic during the 2016 presidential primary, but unlike many Republicans, he's actually stayed one over the last three years. In June, Cox tweeted that he "want[s] to punch someone" over the administration's family separation policies, adding, "Some in my party are doing and supporting things I never thought possible," and, "We get what we deserve. If we want change, we have to change ourselves." In any other state that kind of candor about Trump would be poison in a GOP primary, but Utah Republicans may feel differently.
However, Cox has also made one prominent enemy closer to home. Utah Sen. Mike Lee has spent years ranting against a 2014 law that weakened the role of conservative activists in the party nomination process, and in January, he went on Facebook and tagged Cox in one post asking him if he supports the law. Cox, who as lieutenant governor is Utah's top elections officer, has defended the law, so Lee almost certainly knew the answer to his own question and was just trying to start a fight. Cox doesn't seem to have taken the bait, but we may not have heard the last from Lee now that Cox is running.
Cox has also strayed from conservative orthodoxy in other ways. In 2016, at a vigil for the victims of the mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub, Cox gave a speech were he admitted to treating gay people badly in the past and apologized for "not treating them with the kindness, dignity, and respect — the love — that they deserved." Cox concluded by imploring his listeners to "be a little kinder," adding, "For my straight friends, might I suggest starting with someone who is gay."
Cox is very unlikely to have the GOP field to himself. Wealthy businessman Jeff Burningham opened up a fundraising committee in January and brought in $400,000 though April, though he has not yet announced he's in. A number of other Republicans, including Rep. Rob Bishop, former Rep. Jason Chaffetz, and businessman Josh Romney (a son of Sen. Mitt Romney) are also publicly considering getting in.
● WA-Gov: GOP state Sen. Phil Fortunato confirmed on Tuesday that he was considering running for governor next year, and he told radio host Jason Rantz that he would make up his mind after the September state party dinner. Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee, whom Fortunato invoked when he argued that "you certainly don't have to be intelligent" to be governor, is up for re-election next year: Inslee is running for president, but he hasn't ruled out seeking a third term if his White House bid falters.
Fortunato has served in the Senate from a conservative seat east of Tacoma since 2017, and he's made quite a bad impression during that brief time. Earlier this year, Fortunato proposed a bill that would require any legislator who wanted to pass a law dealing with guns to "pass Criminal Justice Training [Center] firearm training requirement for each firearm that you want to regulate."
Also this year, Fortunato took to the Senate floor after freshman Democratic colleague Joe Nguyen, who is the chamber's first Vietnamese American member, passed his first bill. Fortunato joked, "I'd like to know how you get 'win' out of Nguyen," and Nguyen was not amused by this or by a similar remark from Minority Leader Mark Schoesler. The Democrat told The Stranger how "exhausting" it was "[w]hen people ridicule my name on the Senate floor. When they make racist comments unknowingly on a regular basis. When I have to explain institutional racism to members of my own caucus sometimes."
That's not all. Last month, as Washington was suffering its worst measles outbreak in two decades, Fortunato joined the rest of the GOP caucus in voting against a successful bill that no longer allows parents to invoke personal or philosophical reasons in order to prevent their children from receiving vaccinations for measles, mumps, and rubella. Fortunato even tried amending the bill to allow children to receive vaccinations for just one of the three diseases as an alternative to the combined MMR vaccine, even though ThinkProgress notes that "a single-ingredient vaccine isn't even available, and taking two shots of the MMR vaccine is 97% effective."
House
● CA-10: GOP San Joaquin County Supervisor Bob Elliott filed with the FEC on Monday to raise money for a possible bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Harder, but as the National Journal notes, Elliott announced last month he was running for the state Senate. As of Tuesday, Elliott not only doesn't appear to have said anything publicly about campaigning for Congress, the San Joaquin Conservative Republicans event set for this Monday with Elliott still identifies him as a "candidate for State Senate in the 5th District."
● CA-48: This week, Orange County Supervisor Michelle Steel rolled out endorsements from a number of Orange County GOP politicians. This assortment included former Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Sheriff Don Barnes, and three of her colleagues on the five-member board of supervisors.
● IA-01: On Tuesday, GOP state Rep. Ashley Hinson announced that she would challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in this competitive northeastern Iowa seat. National Republicans have anticipated Hinson's launch for some time, and NRCC chair Tom Emmer said all the way back in January that she'd approached them the day Finkenauer was sworn in to say she would run.
Hinson, a former news anchor with eastern Iowa's ABC affiliate, has some experience winning over crossover voters. She decisively won a seat in the state House in 2016 even as Hillary Clinton was narrowly carrying her district, and last year, she was re-elected 52-48 as Democratic gubernatorial nominee Fred Hubbell was winning her district 50-47. That victory makes her the only state House Republican to represent a Hubbell seat.
Hinson may not have a clear path to the GOP nod, though. Former Rep. Rod Blum, who lost to Finkenauer last year, paid for a 2020 poll early this year, and he's continued doing other candidate-y things lately that include running Facebook ads, traveling across his old district extensively, and sitting for a number of interviews.
The one thing Blum has been quiet about is whether or not he's interested in another bid, and he didn't respond to the Sioux City Journal's request for comment on Hinson's announcement. National Republicans always had an uneasy relationship at best with Blum, whom they left for dead until the final weeks of the 2018 election, and they're unlikely to be happy if he tries again.
● IA-02: Former state Sen. Rita Hart announced on Tuesday that she would run to succeed retiring Rep. Dave Loebsack, a fellow Democrat, in this competitive southeastern Iowa seat. Hart is the first prominent Democrat to jump in, and while it remains to be seen if she'll face a primary, her entrance means at least one local politician won't run. State Sen. Zach Wahls said last month that, while he was interested in running, he would support Hart if she got in.
Hart has been through some tough races before. She last sought re-election in 2014 and held her seat 52-48 as Republican Joni Ernst was carrying it 50-46 in the U.S. Senate race. Hart had planned to run again in 2018 until she became gubernatorial nominee Fred Hubbell's running mate. Hubbell narrowly lost to Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, though the Democratic ticket carried the 2nd District 51-47.
● IA-03: Army veteran Bill Schafer, who retired in 2014 with the rank of colonel, announced this week that he would seek the GOP nod to face freshman Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne. Schafer, who appears to be running for office for the first time, will face former Rep. David Young in the primary. State Sen. Zach Nunn is also considering a bid.
● IL-06: Last year, former state Rep. Jeanne Ives held incumbent Bruce Rauner to a very weak 51.5-48.5 win in the Illinois GOP primary for governor, and she may not be done making trouble for her party. The Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reports that there's a mysterious poll in the field testing Ives in a hypothetical matchup with freshman Democratic Rep. Sean Casten, and when Sweet asked Ives about her interest in running for the 6th District, the former state representative very much did not rule it out.
Instead, Ives responded by saying, "We've you know, this for me it's always been a team decision," and added, "I don't do anything without my team supporting it and we've not made a decision on any race at all." Ives said little about the poll itself, declaring, "You know, I don't control that." This suburban Chicago seat swung from 53-45 Romney to 50-43 Clinton, and as we'll discuss, it's unlikely Ives is the ideal GOP candidate to reclaim it.
Last year, Ives launched a racist and transphobic ad against Rauner that included a deep-voiced actor in a dress telling the governor, "Thank you for signing legislation that lets me use the girls bathroom." The spot also included a man in a hoodie wearing a bandana around his face expressing his appreciation to Rauner for ostensibly making the state "a sanctuary state for illegal immigrant criminals," as well as a woman sporting in a pink protest hat meant to invoke the Women's March saying that the governor now had Illinois families "pay[ing] for my abortions." Ives' campaign responded to the firestorm by saying, "The ad represents Gov. Rauner's chosen constituents based on the policy choices he made."
Former Lt. Gov. Evelyn Sanguinetti is already challenging Casten, and there's very little love lost between her and Ives. Sanguinetti was Rauner's running made during last year's campaign, a race where Ives refused to endorse the ticket in the months after the March primary. Instead, Ives continued to pillory Rauner until the last possible moment.
Days before Election Day, Ives was asked if she'd done everything she could to aid Rauner in the general and she responded, "That was never my job. I was very upfront with people." Ives did say she'd vote for Rauner over Democrat J.B. Pritzker, but she also took the time to (correctly) predict the governor would lose.
● NJ-03: The New Jersey Globe's Nikita Biryukov reports that some local Republicans tried to convince state Assemblyman Ryan Peters to drop his re-election bid this year and immediately start raising money to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, but Peters isn't interested in at least that first part of the plan.
Peters responded for the story by saying, "Right now, no, my mind is not on any congressional seat," and continued, "It's on winning the Assembly spot and keeping the privilege of representing New Jerseyans in the 8th Legislative District as I have for the past year and a half." That statement doesn't rule out a 2020 congressional bid, but it sounds like Peters won't be available to run for federal office before this November's elections.
Biryukov also says that the people trying to land Peters for Congress originally had a different candidate in mind. He writes that GOP fundraiser Frank Sadeghi "was slated to run" and intended to self-fund at least $2 million. However, when longtime Ocean County GOP Chair George Gilmore stepped down after being convicted in federal court on tax charges, Sadeghi decided to run to succeed him. Unnamed party sources tell Biryukov that Sadeghi "does not intend to run" for Congress if he wins Wednesday's party leadership race.
However, Sadeghi faces a serious foe in the party chair battle, and he doesn't appear to have said anything about his interest in running against Kim if he comes up short on Wednesday. Biryukov also adds that both Sadeghi and Gilmore (who is still reportedly involved in local GOP politics despite his conviction) were behind the push to get Peters to switch from the Assembly race to a congressional campaign.
● NJ-05: This week, former Wall Street investment banker Frank Pallotta became the first notable Republican to announce a bid against Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in this competitive North Jersey seat. Back in March, Pallotta he'd "self-fund a substantial portion of the early part of the campaign," but he didn't say how much that would be. He may need to invest quite a bit if he wants to match Gottheimer, who ended March with close to $5 million in the bank.
● NY-12: Bklyner reports that Dawn Smalls, who worked at the Department of Health and Human Services during the Obama administration, is considering challenging Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the primary for this safely blue seat, and that Smalls plans to decide "early to mid-summer." Smalls, who has not said anything publicly about her plans, ran in the 17-way special election for New York City public advocate in February and took sixth place with 4% of the vote.
Maloney, a 14-term incumbent who represents a seat centered around Manhattan's affluent Upper East Side, regularly pulled off decisive primary victories until last cycle. Back in June, though, attorney and hotel executive Suraj Patel outspent Maloney and held her to a 60-40 win. Patel, who attracted some unflattering headlines during the race (Tinder-banking? No thanks), reiterated late last month that he was "strongly considering another run."
● NY-15: This week, nonprofit director Jonathan Ortiz announced that he would seek the Democratic nod for this safely blue open seat in the Bronx. Ortiz had filed paperwork with the FEC all the way back in November, well before Rep. José Serrano announced he would retire. Ortiz explained to Norwood News that he felt Serrano spent too much time at events renaming streets and "giving out free turkeys" rather than doing actual policy.
Ortiz, who also predicted he'd have no support from the local establishment, has not reported raising any money through March. He did argue that "the money will be there" for his campaign, though Ortiz admitted he was still doing research on how to run for Congress. A number of other candidates, including a few local elected officials, are already running.
Mayoral
● Dallas, TX Mayor: On Tuesday, termed-out Mayor Mike Rawlings and half of the 14-member city council endorsed state Rep. Eric Johnson over City Councilor Scott Griggs for the June 8 general election. Johnson, who is considerably closer to the local establishment than his fellow Democrat, previously picked up the backing of a number of his legislative colleagues, as well as three former mayors.
● Denver, CO Mayor: On Monday, urban planner Jamie Giellis unveiled endorsements from the two major defeated candidates in the nonpartisan primary, Lisa Calderón and Penfield Tate. Last week, Mayor Michael Hancock outpolled Giellis 39-25, while Calderón and Tate captured 18% and 15%, respectively. Hancock and Giellis will face off in the June 4 general election.
