The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Programing Note: Daily Kos Elections will be taking a short break for Memorial Day. The Live Digest will return Tuesday, and the Morning Digest will be back Wednesday.
Leading Off
● IL-03: After coming under fire from progressives, DCCC chair Cheri Bustos announced on Wednesday that she was pulling out of a high-dollar fundraiser next month for socially conservative Rep. Dan Lipinski.
Campaign Action
In a statement, Bustos alluded to Lipinski's hostility to abortion rights, saying she is "proud to have a 100 percent pro-choice voting record" and noting that she and Lipinski "do not agree on women's reproductive healthcare"—a very polite way of explaining that Lipinski thinks men should have the right to pass laws controlling women's bodies. At the same time, Bustos praised Lipinski's work to secure federal money for infrastructure and insisted that her decision would "not change how I will work as DCCC chair to protect our big tent Democratic caucus."
And indeed, we can still expect Bustos to continue to help Lipinski as he faces another serious primary challenge from his 2018 opponent, businesswoman Marie Newman. While Lipinski said he agreed it was "in the best interest of House Democrats" that Bustos bail on his fundraiser, he also told Politico that the two are "friends," claiming he had rounded up votes in her race for DCCC chair and "was the first one to tell her she had won."
Lipinski added that Bustos had supported him in last year's primary and said of this year's race, "She said she'd do anything to help me in any way." The New York Times Jonathan Martin further reports that unnamed DCCC staffers "would not rule out using the committee's resources" to support Lipinski.
We can also expect Lipinski to continue to be a raging jagoff. He not only said he plans to attack Newman for supporting the Green New Deal, he told Martin that the refusal by Democrats to welcome in anti-choice politicians like himself was "how we got President Trump—people felt like they weren't welcome in the party."
There's another problem looming for progressives, though, on top of the prospect of D-Trip assistance for Lipinski: a split primary field. Last year, Newman was fortunate to run one-on-one against Lipinski, meaning the anti-incumbent vote wouldn't be fractured among multiple challengers. (Newman wound up losing by a narrow 51-49 margin.)
This time, however, there are two other contenders to deal with: attorney Abe Matthew and now activist Rush Darwish, who served on the transition team of newly elected Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and just entered the race the other day. Newman and her supporters told Martin they're concerned that Lipinski's allies would recruit other candidates in order to undermine her campaign, and while of course such charges are usually unprovable, as Martin suggests, these kinds of tactics are very much in character for creatures of Chicago's machine politics like Lipinski.
Senate
● CO-Sen: State Sen. Angela Williams told Politico this week that she was considering joining the crowded Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner and has already met with the DSCC and EMILY's List. Williams, who represents a safely blue Denver seat, would be the state's first black senator as well as the first woman to represent Colorado in the upper chamber.
● MS-Sen: Wealthy businessman Gerard Gibert, who serves as a vice chair of the Mississippi Lottery Board, expressed interest this week in launching a GOP primary bid against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Gibert, who also flirted with running for governor this year but didn't do it, pitched himself as someone who could bring investments to Mississippi.
However, Gibert didn't say why he thinks voters should fire Hyde-Smith, and he also used his interview with the Hotty Toddy Hotline to express interest in becoming chancellor of the University of Mississippi. Y'all Politics reports that Gibert can self-fund, though it's not clear how much he's willing or able to invest in a Senate bid.
Hyde-Smith, who was serving as state agriculture commissioner, was appointed to the Senate last year to succeed long-term incumbent Thad Cochran. While the White House was reportedly initially skeptical that Hyde-Smith could fend off Republican state Sen. Chris McDaniel, a tea party ally who had a horrible relationship with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Trump ended up endorsing the new senator.
Hyde-Smith had little trouble defeating McDaniel in November's nonpartisan primary, and she probably expected a dull general election contest three weeks later against former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Mike Espy, a Democrat who was the state's first black congressman since Reconstruction. However, the runoff quickly attracted the bad kind of national attention when progressive journalist Lamar White posted footage of Hyde-Smith saying of a supporter, "If he invited me to a public hanging, I'd be on the front row."
Hyde-Smith didn't apologize for showing eagerness to witness a lynching, and Espy ran a commercial going after her over her comments, as well as her "joke" that it should be harder for liberal college students to vote. Several major companies, including Walmart and Major League Baseball, also publicly asked Hyde-Smith to return donations they'd made to her campaign.
In a familiar scene, national Republicans reportedly became worried about Hyde-Smith's prospects, and the NRSC and Senate Leadership Fund ended up spending a combined $2.8 million here, while Espy's allies at Senate Majority PAC threw down a total of $874,000. Hyde-Smith won 54-46, which, while not close, was the worst performance for Team Red in a Mississippi Senate race since 1988.
That weak showing might encourage a primary challenge from Gibert or another Republican. However, if Trump backs Hyde-Smith again, it will be very hard to stop the incumbent as she seeks a full term, especially since the Senate and presidential primary will take place on the same day.
It also remains to be seen what Democrats will step up. Espy quickly filed paperwork for a potential 2020 bid following his November defeat, but he didn't announce if he'd run again. We still haven't heard anything new from Espy, who raised very little money during the first three months of 2019.
● NC-Sen: North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, who pissed off almost everyone with his flip-flop on Trump’s bogus emergency declaration, already faces a GOP primary challenge from wealthy businessman Garland Tucker, but the anti-establishment Club for Growth is still trying to recruit a different opponent. Club president David McIntosh told Politico this week that they were interested in seeing Rep. Mark Walker run, and they would “wait and see if a race develops and explore if Rep. Mark Walker would make a stronger general election candidate.”
Walker announced in late April that he wouldn’t take on Tillis, but he may be leaving the door open to changing his mind. Walker’s spokesperson said that his boss was “humbled to have the support and consideration of conservatives across North Carolina,” and added, “What we hear on the ground is what is confirmed in these results: our state wants a senator who will support President Trump and his conservative agenda. For now, Walker is focused on delivering for the people of the Old North State.” As Politico notes, this statement isn’t a no.
However, while Walker could end up running after all, there are a few reasons why he perhaps shouldn’t. North Carolina law only requires a primary runoff if no candidates takes at least 30% of the vote, so if both Walker and Tucker are on the ballot, they could split the anti-incumbent vote enough for Tillis to secure the nomination with just a plurality.
Indeed, a new poll of a hypothetical GOP primary for the Club finds that this very scenario could take place. WPA Intelligence finds Tillis taking 40% of the vote, while Walker leads Ticker 17-11 for second (Some Dude Sandy Smith secures 2%). In a head-to-head matchup, Tillis leads Walker by a considerably smaller 43-34 margin; the memo did not include numbers testing just Tucker against Tillis. Note that the poll asked respondents if they “would consider another candidate in a Republican primary” before they get to the head-to-head (52% said they would, while another 18% said they’d definitely vote against Tillis), which may have impacted the results.
Another reason that Tillis’ conservative detractors might want to be hesitant about a Walker campaign is that the congressman’s stock took a huge plunge in early April after federal prosecutors indicted North Carolina Republican Party Chair Robin Hayes, as well as GOP donor Greg Lindberg and two of his associates, for their part in an alleged bribery scheme. The indictment didn't mention Walker by name, but Politico quickly identified him as "Public Official A," whom Lindberg's associates said had been "trying to help us move the ball forward." Walker has denied any wrongdoing.
National Republicans have also made it very clear that they’ll help Tillis fend off an intra-party challenge. Earlier this week, Politico reported that the NRSC successfully pressured the pollster McLaughlin & Associates to drop Tucker as a client. Of course, given McLaughlin’s history of high-profile misses, which continued into the 2018 election cycle, Tillis’ allies probably would have been doing the senator a favor if they’d kept quiet and let Tucker keep his pollster, but we digress.
National GOP groups aren’t just stopping there, though. The Washington Examiner’s David Drucker writes that the Senate Leadership Fund, which is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s well-funded super PAC, is prepared to run TV ads against Tucker that highlight his past opposition to Trump. While Tucker, who wrote in 2016 that Trump was “a twice-divorced, self-acknowledged adulterer who has, in the course of this campaign, uttered some of the most unkind, disgusting comments ever made by any American politician,” gives Tillis’ allies an easy avenue of attack, it’s unlikely that they’d go easy on Walker if they thought he was a threat.
Democrats would love a bloody GOP primary in this competitive state, but it still remains to be seen whom Team Blue will field here. WRAL reported on May 10 that multiple unnamed sources "expect" former state Treasurer Janet Cowell to get in, and she'd decide "in the coming days." However, we haven’t heard anything new about a possible Cowell campaign in the last two weeks.
● NM-Sen, TX-Sen: This week, the progressive group End Citizens United made two endorsements in Democratic Senate primaries. ECU is backing Rep. Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, and they're supporting Air Force veteran and 2018 House candidate MJ Hegar in Texas.
● WY-Sen: Conservative megadonor Foster Friess, who was the runner-up in last year's GOP primary for governor of Wyoming, told the Associated Press on Wednesday that he was considering a bid for the state's open Senate seat. Friess said he'd be making his decision in the following months, but didn't provide a more specific timetable. Friess is 79, which is quite old to begin serving in a place like the Senate where seniority is so vital. However, as we'll see, not much has been conventional about Friess' years in the political spotlight.
Friess rose to prominence in 2012 when he spent millions on a super PAC backing Rick Santorum's presidential campaign, which was basically the only thing keeping Santorum afloat for months. Friess also generated a firestorm over birth control during that campaign when he explained, "Back in my days, they used Bayer Aspirin for contraceptives. The gals put it between their knees and it wasn't that costly." Santorum only half-heartedly distanced himself from Friess by calling his comments a "stupid joke" and "not reflective of me," though the two remained friendly.
Friess continued to bankroll conservative candidates, and last cycle, he finally decided to become one himself. First, though, the wealthy businessman considered launching a primary bid against Sen. John Barrasso. Strangely, Friess repeatedly extolled Barrasso as "an incredible human being" and "one of my heroes" even as he was talking about running against him. However, Friess didn't bother to spell his "hero's" name correctly in an email explaining how white nationalist Steve Bannon had given him the idea to run against "John Barrosso."
Friess decided not to launch a Senate campaign in 2018, but he surprised everyone when he jumped into the open seat race for governor. He kicked off that campaign with an appearance at the state party convention where he called for a return to "civility" in American politics.
In that very same civility speech, Friess suggested that Barack Obama had funneled money intended to mitigate global warming to cousins in a foreign country the candidate didn't know how to pronounce, adding, "Zoowanatou ... it's some little country I've never been." Friess went on to talk about the importance of providing weapons to the Kurdish military force in Iraq (whose name he also butchered), even though the governor of Wyoming has very little say in whether the United States arms them or not.
Unsurprisingly, Friess didn't seem at all prepared for his gubernatorial campaign. He admitted to not having a clear position on education funding, and when a reporter went on to ask if he'd hired a campaign manager, Friess offered the reporter the job. (We assume he was joking, but we can't be sure.) However, the candidate did put his money where his mouth was, and Friess used his personal wealth to go on TV well before any of his primary rivals and outspent each of them.
In primary day in August, Friess picked up an endorsement from Donald Trump about two hours after the polls opened. However, Trump's intervention may have come just too late to alter the race, and Friess lost to state Treasurer Mark Gordon 33-26 (Gordon won the general election a few months later).
If Friess runs for Senate next year and nails down Trump's support before people start voting, he could very well triumph regardless of what else he says or does. However, Rep. Liz Cheney, a vocal Trump supporter and favorite of the GOP leadership, is also eyeing this seat, so Trump may not be so willing to endorse Friess again if she gets in.
Gubernatorial
● IN-Gov: Former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers told Howey Politics this week that he was "very close to making a decision to enter the race" against GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb. The only other Democrat who has publicly expressed interest in running is state Rep. Karlee Macer, who told Howey she's "going to continue to seriously evaluate" whether to run, though she didn't give a timeline for when she expects to decide.
State Democratic Party chair John Zody recently convened a meeting that included a few Democrats who could run including 2012 and 2016 nominee John Gregg; former Rep. Baron Hill; and former state Rep. Christina Hale. Howey reported this week that former Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel was also there, though there's no other information about his interest in this race. Democrats have touted Weinzapfel as a potential congressional or statewide candidate for a long time, but while he's shown interest, he's never taken the bait.
● KY-Gov: The Republican Governors Association has gone up on the air with its first TV ad attacking Democratic nominee Andy Beshear, which ad-tracker Medium Buying says isn't backed by a "super-sized" amount of spending. The spot accuses Beshear of being involved in a "family business" of politics and influence-peddling, claiming he got tax breaks for his law clients while his father, Steve Beshear, was governor.
The story Republicans cite involved a company, which Andy Beshear's law firm represented, that received tax breaks for starting a factory in Kentucky. However, when that story arose during Steve Beshear's 2011 re-election campaign, the law firm argued that a preliminary deal for the tax breaks was negotiated with the state before the firm was hired, and the governor asserted he had no involvement in the decision-making process of Kentucky's Economic Development Finance Authority.
Additionally, what makes this a somewhat unusual line of attack is the fact that the elder Beshear was elected twice by landslide margins and finished his tenure as governor in 2015 with a high approval rating despite being a Democrat in a conservative state. While Republicans undoubtedly intend to portray the younger Beshear as an unqualified product of nepotism, reminding voters of his popular father could end up being an ineffective way to attack the Democratic nominee.
● MO-Gov: The Kansas City Star reports that those close to disgraced former Republican Gov. Eric Greitens say they've seen no indication that he's looking to run for office in 2020. Furthermore, an unnamed Republican operative who reportedly met with Greitens said he seemed more interested in running for federal office, particularly for Republican Sen. Roy Blunt's seat in 2022.
House
● MA-04: Former Wall Street regulator Ihssane Leckey launched a primary bid against Democratic Rep. Joe Kennedy III earlier this month. Leckey, who immigrated to the United States from Morocco and went on to work at the Federal Reserve, contrasted her pitch for democratic socialism with Kennedy's call last month for "moral capitalism." However, she argued to Politico this contest isn't "a fight of how progressive you are or how conservative you are. This is a fight of top against bottom."
Leckey will be in for a very tough fight against Kennedy, a four-term congressman and a member of the Bay State's most prominent political family. (Or to put it another way: If a Kennedy loses a Democratic primary in Massachusetts as an incumbent, then state politics has entered a very unpredictable new era.) Kennedy also ended March with close to $4.2 million in the bank, and the well-connected congressman should have little trouble bringing in more. This seat, which includes the affluent Boston suburbs of Brookline and Newton and stretches south to Attleboro and Taunton, backed Hillary Clinton 59-35.
● ME-02: Former state Sen. Eric Brakey, who was the Republican nominee for Senate in 2018, has reaffirmed that he's interested in running for House next year against freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, although he hasn't given much indication how likely he would be to run. Brakey says that he has talked with former GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin and that he doesn't "think either of us would want to run against each other."
● NM-03: Aztec Mayor Victor Snover announced he's launched an exploratory campaign for the Democratic nomination and will declare whether he's officially running in the coming months. Snover would likely be starting out with little name recognition given that Aztec is only home to around 6,000 people, but he notably has a record of advocating for progressive policy stances in a rural area that leans overwhelmingly Republican. Indeed, Snover's support for gun-safety regulations led to some opponents trying to recall him from the city commission, an effort that ultimately didn't succeed.
● TX-10: Attorney Shannon Hutcheson's campaign said Thursday morning that she raised $165,000 in the two days since she entered the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Michael McCaul.
Mayoral
● Nashville, TN Mayor: Candidate filing closed last week for Nashville's Aug. 1 nonpartisan primary, and The Tennessean has a list of candidates available here. If no one claims a majority, there would be a runoff on a later date.
Democrat David Briley became mayor in early 2018 after incumbent Megan Barry resigned because of a scandal, and he won a crowded special election for the rest of her term a few months later with 54% of the vote. Briley is seeking his first full term this year, and he's drawn nine opponents. The mayor's most serious foes look like Democratic state Rep. John Ray Clemmons and Metro Councilman John Cooper, the brother of local Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper. Carol Swain, a conservative law professor who took second in last year's special with 23%, is also in the mix.
Briley is arguing that the city has stabilized its finances under his watch, and he's touted the arrival of companies like Amazon. By contrast, Clemmons declared in his January kickoff that the mayor has fallen short when it came to addressing transportation, education, and affordable housing. Clemmons also contrasted himself with the low-key Briley, saying that, "People do expect a level of charisma from their mayor," and that he hadn't done a good job "selling the city." Cooper, meanwhile, has said that the city's policy of using incentives to attract businesses was a "trickle-down approach" that wasn't helping neighborhoods other than downtown.
