The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● San Antonio, TX Mayor: San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg, a progressive independent, outpaced conservative City Councilor Greg Brockhouse by a narrow 49-46 margin in the city's nonpartisan primary earlier this month, so now the two are facing off in a June 8 general election, and the race has taken a dark turn.
Campaign Action
Brockhouse has begun attracting renewed scrutiny over past allegations of domestic violence over an incident in 2009, when Brockhouse's wife, Annalisa, called the police and alleged that he had thrown her to the ground. No charges were filed, and Brockhouse said in March he didn't recall the incident, later insisting it "never happened." Brockhouse's wife also recanted her allegations and said she stands "proudly with Greg."
Though the story first broke during the primary, Brockhouse largely managed to avoid addressing it. During one forum, he even told a moderator he would leave if any questions were asked about the incident, and none were.
Things have been different in the second round, though. In recent weeks, a newly formed group of women called Mētú (the name is a riff on #MeToo) has called on Brockhouse to address both the 2009 police report as well as earlier accusations from 2006 brought by Christine Rivera, who was married to Brockhouse at the time but was separated from him.
In that 2006 episode, Rivera called the police and told them Brockhouse had pushed her after she and her boyfriend ran into him when Brockhouse showed up at the home he had shared with Rivera to retrieve some possessions. Brockhouse also called the police and accused Rivera's boyfriend of punching him. No charges were filed then either, and Brockhouse has denied any wrongdoing.
Brockhouse and his allies have repeatedly claimed the 2009 police report is a forgery, but on Thursday, when Texas Public Radio asked Brockhouse whether or not the police showed up at his home, he evaded. Instead, when reporter David Martin Davies asked him if the police had been called to his house that night, Brockhouse replied, "100% the situation did not happen." As columnist Gilbert Garcia writes at the San Antonio Express-News, that's well short of a denial.
Davies went on to explicitly ask Brockhouse if "someone created this report out of whole cloth," to which the candidate responded, "No, I don't know what that means." When Davies later asked him if he was "saying that piece of paper was manufactured by somebody as a campaign hit job on you," Brockhouse cut him off and declared, "No, I'm not saying that. You're drawing this out. I'm telling you the report is false."
However, Garcia points out Brockhouse's explanations don't make much sense. Garcia notes that, among other things, anyone who wanted to fabricate a police report would need to "know Brockhouse's 2009 address"; "have to hope that he and his wife were at their home on the night in question and in town for the holidays"; and also know "the name and badge number of the officer named on the report." Perhaps most seriously, anyone who wanted to forge a police report would need to be willing to risk getting caught and punished.
Meanwhile, Nirenberg recently picked up endorsements from the Texas Democratic Party as well as from former Mayor Julian Castro and Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro.
Senate
● ME-Sen: Last week, Rep. Chellie Pingree told Bloomberg that she doubted that either she or her daughter, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, would seek the Democratic nod to take on GOP Sen. Susan Collins. The elder Pingree, who lost the 2002 general election to Collins, raised very little money in the first quarter of 2019, which indicated that she wasn't preparing for another Senate bid. Hannah Pingree didn't rule out running back in January, but she hasn't said anything else about this race since then.
Gubernatorial
● MS-Gov: Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves is out with a new TV spot ahead of the August GOP primary that stars his wife praising the candidate as a loving father. Elee Reeves concludes by telling the audience, "Tate has been known as a pretty tough negotiator. I would say that definitely translates into our house as well," adding, "I think having three daughters has definitely prepared Tate to negotiate for Mississippi." There is no word on the size of the buy.
● MT-Gov: Unnamed sources tell MTN News that GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte "is telling fellow Republicans he plans to formally announce his candidacy soon," and that he'll self-fund millions of dollars. A few other Republicans, including state Attorney General Tim Fox and state Secretary of State Corey Stapleton, are already running to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock.
House
● GA-06: The GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath got a little larger over the weekend when Merchant Marine veteran Nicole Rodden announced her bid. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution describes Rodden as a "political newcomer."
● NC-09: Republican pollster JMC Analytics has just published the first poll we've seen of the Sept. 10 do-over election for North Carolina's 9th District, giving Republican Dan Bishop a small 46-42 lead over Democrat Dan McCready.
JMC, which says it conducted this survey independent of any client, also asked a few related questions before getting to the horserace. After respondents were asked if they approve of Donald Trump and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper (Trump posts a 55-39 score, while Cooper is narrowly in positive territory at 41-39), they were quizzed, "In last year's regular Congressional election, which candidate did you want to win the race?"
To that question, voters said they just barely favored McCready over 2018 GOP nominee Mark Harris, 41-40. Harris was initially declared the winner last year, but the State Board of Elections voided his 905-vote lead in the face of widespread evidence of fraud committed on his behalf and ordered a new election.
JMC then asked, "For the upcoming Congressional special election, would you rather a Democrat or a Republican represent you in Congress?" There the GOP leads 52-41, a much wider margin than Bishop's 4-point edge on the named ballot. If these numbers are accurate, they suggest that McCready's pitch as a Marine veteran with crossover appeal to voters who normally back Republicans is working, but not quite enough to reverse this district's traditional lean.
However, as always, we caution that this is just one poll, and we'll need to see more data to draw firmer conclusions about which way this race is headed.
● NV-04: Republican Charles Navarro, a former district director for then-Rep. Cresent Hardy, filed paperwork with the FEC this week for a possible bid against Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford.
● NY-10: Lindsey Boylan, a former economic advisor to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, filed paperwork last month for a primary bid against longtime Democratic Rep. Jerry Nadler, and she's since announced she's in. Nadler has never had any trouble winning renomination in this safely blue New York City seat, which includes Lower Manhattan and the Upper West Side as well as Brooklyn's Borough Park.
Boylan is arguing that Nadler, who chairs the powerful House Judiciary Committee, has been slow to use his powerful post to fight the Trump administration. Boylan told the Washington Post over the weekend that the congressman should have already requested unreleased legal documents from the National Archives that were penned by now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh when he worked in the Bush administration. As reporter Dave Weigel explained, progressive activists are hoping that "if Kavanaugh challenged the constitutionality of legal abortion in memos that were not released ahead of his confirmation, they can pressure him to recuse himself on abortion matters before the court."
● NY-27: GOP Rep. Chris Collins told the Buffalo News that he'll decide whether or not to seek re-election by the end of 2019, which is before he's scheduled to stand trial in February for insider trading. The congressman added that running again "would be my leaning if everything aligns properly," though he noted that his current legal status complicates things.
Collins also made it very clear that he doesn't want state Sen. Chris Jacobs, who kicked off a primary bid against him earlier this month, succeeding him in this conservative seat. Collins, who was one of the first members of Congress to endorse Donald Trump in 2016, told the paper, "Just imagine if there was someone as liberal as Chris Jacobs in my job. He would not ever get return calls from the White House." Collins later labeled Jacobs a "Democrat wearing a Republican sport coat" and added, "I'm not going to let someone pretend and snooker my constituents."
● SC-01: Freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham will be a top GOP target in this 53-40 Trump seat, and state Rep. Nancy Mace tells The State that she's "strongly considering" a bid.
Mace, whom the paper calls a "self-fashioned conservative firebrand," made history as the first woman to ever graduate from The Citadel military academy, which is located just outside of this Charleston-area seat. Mace first ran for office in 2014 when she entered the very crowded GOP primary to take on Sen. Lindsey Graham, but she ended up taking fifth place with just 6% of the vote (Graham won 53%). After a stint as a state director for the 2016 Trump campaign, Mace won her state House seat in a 2018 special.
The paper adds that Mace also has loudly opposed offshore drilling off the coast of South Carolina, which could be an asset in this district. Last year, Cunningham made his opposition to drilling a key issue while Republican foe Katie Arrington infamously supported it during the primary only to unconvincing change her stance in the general: Cunningham ended up pulling off a 51-49 upset.
Last month, Mace also made national headlines during a debate on a bill that would ban abortion in South Carolina after six weeks. Mace successfully introduced an amendment that would include exceptions for cases of rape or incest, and she used her speech to reveal to her colleagues that she'd been sexually assaulted as a teenager. Mace declared that while she was against abortion in most instances, "Rape and incest are not partisan issues."
Mace's comments infuriated fellow GOP state Rep. Josiah Magnuson, and two weeks after her speech, he left a card on her desk reading, "It is a twisted logic that would kill the unborn child for the misdeed of the parent." Legislative leaders from both parties condemned Magnuson, who eventually apologized to Mace.
A number of other Republicans are also eyeing this seat. The State writes that Mount Pleasant Town Councilwoman Kathy Landing is "rumored" to be considering, but Landing hasn't said anything publicly. State Sen. Tom Davis also told the paper he was still considering, while state Sen. Chip Campsen also said that he wasn't ruling it out.
However, while Arrington sounded very likely to run again right after her 2018 loss, she may be having second thoughts. Arrington took a job with the Department of Defense in January, and unnamed GOP sources "familiar with recruitment efforts" tell the paper they "have not spoken to her about her intentions." Arrington would only tell The State that she couldn't comment about 2020 now that she's a DoD employee.
The only notable Republican who has announced a bid against Cunningham so far is Beaufort County Councilman Mike Covert. However, Covert raised just $28,000 during the first quarter of 2019, though he self-funded another $44,000.
● UT-04: Utah Policy reported on Friday that Kathleen Anderson, the former communications director for the state GOP, is "preparing" to kick off a campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams. Anderson, whose husband recently finished a stint leading the state party, has not yet said anything publicly.
A number of other Republicans have shown an interest in challenging McAdams in this conservative seat, and Utah County Commissioner Nathan Ivie also left his options open this month. KUTV asked Ivie if he was "not ruling out a run for Congress," to which he responded, "No I don't think you close the doors, right." Ivie made national news last week when he announced he was gay.
● House: Conventional wisdom suggests that the Democrats swept back into control of the House of Representatives by winning the suburbs by pushing turnout from people who don't usually vote in midterms. A new analysis from Yair Ghitza of Catalist suggests that, indeed, 2018 midterm turnout looked more like the race and age composition of a presidential election, but it also suggests that the biggest overperformances compared to 2016 were in rural areas, more so than the suburbs, and that persuading swing voters had a proportionately bigger impact on Democratic gains than turning out irregular voters; David Jarman took a deeper look at those findings.
