The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AL-Sen: On Wednesday, Donald Trump warned Alabama Republicans that they should not choose 2017 GOP Senate nominee Roy Moore for a rematch against Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Trump assured his Twitter followers that he had "NOTHING against Roy Moore," whom multiple women have said preyed on them when they were teenagers. However, Trump declared, "Roy Moore cannot win, and the consequences will be devastating....Judges and Supreme Court Justices!"
Campaign Action
Moore, who is mulling another Senate campaign, was not dissuaded, though. The former state Supreme Court chief justice, who couldn't resist once again delighting in his well-earned reputation for homophobia, soon tweeted in response, "Ever wonder why the mere mention of my name scares the 'hell' out of the Washington DC establishment, liberals, and LGBT? Like Pres Trump I want to see America great again, but that is a job only God can do!" Moore also told the Associated Press that he wasn't going to let Trump's opposition keep him out of the race.
Moore has been openly considering seeking a rematch against Jones, who beat him 50-48 in 2017, for a few months. On Tuesday, Rep. Bradley Byrne, who is one of a few Republicans already running in next March's primary, told The Hill that unnamed sources close to Moore told him that the former judge would enter the race this June. A second member of the Alabama House delegation, whom The Hill did not identify, also said that he'd heard the same thing.
Moore's team didn't comment on the story, though Moore himself tweeted it out and added that Byrne "knows that if I run I will beat Doug Jones." A few hours later, Trump told his followers that they should not back Moore because he would not beat Jones.
Moore, who defeated appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the 2017 runoff, is one of the few people in modern Republican politics to beat a Trump-endorsed candidate in a primary, but he may have a much tougher time overcoming the White House's opposition in 2020 if he tries again. Last time, Trump spoke well of Moore even while he was stumping for Strange. Trump even said that he "might have made a mistake" by not backing Moore instead of Strange―a statement he made at what was supposed to be a rally for Strange.
Things could go very differently, though, in a primary where Trump is actually opposing Moore. In today's environment, where a tweet from Trump is often the biggest factor in deciding who wins or loses a GOP primary, that distinction could indeed make all the difference. It doesn't help Moore that Alabama requires a runoff in primaries where no one takes a majority, so he can't just coast to the nomination with a plurality of the vote.
It's not clear who Trump actually wants to be Team Red's nominee in Alabama, but one GOP politician has a theory. Party fundraiser Perry Hooper, a former state representative, recently told NBC that Trump quizzed him about the GOP field at a White House meeting a few weeks ago, and that Trump "specifically asked" him about former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville.
Hooper went on to say that Trump remembered that Byrne had asked him to end his presidential bid in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tape surfaced where Trump was heard bragging about sexually assaulting women. Hooper further recounted that Trump "asked me about Coach Tub, and he asked if he was with me in 2016, and I told him he was," and speculated that Trump was open to endorsing Tuberville.
Senate
● MT-Sen: This week, the conservative Senate Leadership Fund launched a $150,000 TV and digital buy against Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock … who is not running for the Senate. The spot accuses Bullock of using state highway patrol officers for his out-of-state presidential trips.
While national Democrats have still expressed some hope that Bullock could challenge GOP Sen. Steve Daines if his White House bid falters, the governor has repeatedly said he has no interest in serving in the Senate. The SLF may not actually think that Bullock is open to changing his mind, since The National Journal writes that their ad campaign is "meant to serve as a warning to any presidential candidate considering switching to a Senate race."
● SC-Sen: On Wednesday, former South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jaime Harrison announced that he would challenge GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham. Harrison formed an exploratory committee in February, and his campaign says he's raised nearly $500,000 since then.
Team Blue hasn't won a Senate race in South Carolina since 1998, when Democratic incumbent Fritz Hollings earned his final term, and it won't be easy for Harrison to break the streak. Donald Trump carried the Palmetto State 55-41, and Morning Consult gave Graham a 52-31 approval rating for the first quarter of 2019. Still, as we like to remind readers, it's always good for Democrats to field strong candidates in tough seats: As Alabama Sen. Doug Jones can attest, you never know what will happen.
Graham looks likely to avoid a serious primary challenge this cycle. While the senator took just 56% of the vote in the crowded 2014 intra-party contest, Graham has since reinvented himself as a loud Trump ally. The White House seems to be returning the favor, since Mike Pence held a fundraiser for Graham in March and made sure to stress his loyalty to the administration. So far, no notable Republicans have shown any interest in taking on the three-term incumbent.
Gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Medium Buying reports that the size of the buy for RGA's opening TV spot against Democrat Andy Beshear is now $314,000.
● MT-Gov: MTN News recently reported that GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte has been telling people that he's planning to run for governor, and his office didn't deny it. A Gianforte spokesperson instead said that the congressman has been receiving "a lot of encouragement" and would have a decision in the coming weeks.
House
● CO-03: On Tuesday, 2018 Democratic nominee Diane Mitsch Bush announced that she would seek a rematch against GOP Rep. Scott Tipton in this 52-40 Trump seat in western Colorado.
Last cycle, Mitsch Bush, who resigned her state House seat to focus on her congressional bid, outraised Tipton $1.9 million to $1.6 million. However, major outside groups didn't spend here, and Tipton won 52-44. According to our preliminary calculations, Republican Walker Stapleton beat Democrat Jared Polis in this seat last year by a 50-46 margin as he was losing 53-43 statewide.
● IA-02: On Wednesday, retiring Rep. Dave Loebsack endorsed former state Sen. Rita Hart in the Democratic primary. Hart currently faces no intra-party opposition in this competitive seat, though a few potential candidates haven't ruled out running against her.
● IL-13: EMILY's List has endorsed 2018 Democratic nominee Betsy Dirksen Londrigan as she seeks a rematch against GOP Rep. Rodney Davis. Londrigan, who narrowly lost last year's general election 50.4-49.6, currently faces no serious primary opposition.
● NM-03: Rob Apodaca, who served in the Obama administration's Department of Agriculture, announced on Tuesday that he would seek the Democratic nod for this open northern New Mexico district. Apodaca, who previously held posts with local governments in the Santa Fe area as well as with the state, joins a crowded contest for this 52-37 Clinton seat.
● NC-03: State Rep. Greg Murphy and pediatrician Joan Perry will face off in the July 9 GOP primary runoff for this reliably red seat, and Roll Call's Simone Pathé writes that the contest is creating some divisions on Capitol Hill. All 13 women left in the GOP caucus, including North Carolina's Virginia Foxx, are backing Perry, while Freedom Caucus chair Mark Meadows is supporting Murphy. Rep. George Holding, who represents a nearby House seat, has also endorsed Perry, who is a cousin by marriage.
Pathé notes that Murphy, who supported a version of Medicaid expansion, seems like a strange fit for a far-right Freedom Caucus leader. However, the two men are close, and Meadows reportedly urged Murphy to run in this special election to succeed the late Walter Jones. Meadows, who represents a western North Carolina seat located quite a ways away from this coastal district, also stars in Murphy's first TV ad for the runoff. The commercial itself is about as dull as it gets, unless you happen to be a fan of 40-second clips of Mark Meadows talking in a hallway about the Freedom Caucus.
Meanwhile, Pathé writes that Perry's backers in the House aren't particularly happy with Meadows standing in the way of them sending another woman to the GOP caucus. Perry's allies may also give her a hand in the next few weeks: Winning for Women, a super PAC that aims to elect Republican women, spent $200,000 for Perry in the first round, and they say they'll aid her again.
Mayoral
● Denver, CO Mayor: With days to go before Denver's June 4 general election, Mayor Michael Hancock is facing renewed scrutiny over a 2012 scandal involving sexually explicit texts he sent to a member of his security detail.
At a Tuesday debate, Hancock was asked about the messages he sent to Denver police detective Leslie Branch-Wise, who has said she felt she was sexually harassed. The mayor told moderators that he disagreed with Branch-Wise and argued that the released texts didn't include Branch-Wise's own messages. The mayor continued, "The reason why I never said that it was sexual harassment is because you don't see the back-and-forth conversation that occurred." Hancock's messages, which were released last year, included texts in which the mayor told Branch-Wise she looked "sexy" in black and asked her if she had an interest in pole dancing.
Branch-Wise was understandably displeased with Hancock's remarks and endorsed his opponent, urban planner Jamie Giellis, at a joint appearance the following day. Branch-Wise, who labeled the mayor a "pitiful, desperate liar," added that she wasn't planning to take sides until Hancock suggested that she was to blame for his texts. And as she has previously, Branch-Wise once again said that she'd felt pressured to sign a sworn statement in 2013 in which she'd agreed that Hancock had not sexually harassed her.
Just before Branch-Wise's press conference with Giellis, Hancock put out a statement saying he'd "misspoke" at the debate. The mayor offered something resembling an apology, saying, "The most important thing in all of this is that my behavior seven years ago was unacceptable and inappropriate. There is no justification for it, and it's something I am deeply sorry for." However, Hancock also hedged, adding, "While the detective never indicated at the time that she felt the text messages were inappropriate and signed a sworn affidavit to that effect, I know she feels differently today. I am held accountable for this mistake every day."
Giellis, meanwhile, has been eager to shift the spotlight from herself to her opponent. She's spent the last two weeks under fire after she couldn't remember what the acronym NAACP stood for, as well as over a 2009 tweet in which she wondered why "so many cities feel it necessary to have a 'Chinatown'?" On Tuesday, Giellis released her first TV spot in which she pledges to tackle several quality of life issues as well as "pass ethics reforms to stop sexual harassment at City Hall." While the spot doesn't mention Hancock by name, that last promise is an obvious reference to Branch-Wise's accusations.
