Selzer and Co. is the gold standard of polling in Iowa, and one of the best pollsters in the biz, period. It has released its latest Iowa caucus poll (March 9 results in parenthesis):
Biden 24 (27)
Sanders 16 (25)
Warren 15 (9)
Buttigieg 14 (1)
Harris 7 (7)
The big winner? Pete Buttigieg, up 13! He’s followed by Elizabeth Warren. The big loser? Bernie Sanders, who is losing steam pretty much everywhere. His retread campaign (seriously, same stump speech as 2016) is being eclipsed by new, less-polarizing, more exciting candidates such as Warren and Buttigieg. Biden, too, has nowhere to go but down, and he’s already headed in that direction.
And if you look deeper into the numbers, things look even better for Warren and Buttigieg. “It's not just the topline that's good for Buttigieg and Warren,” writes CNN’s Harry Enten. “Among those who can form an opinion of a given candidate, both are tied for the best very favorable rating among in-person caucusgoers. Biden's very favorable rating among caucusgoers is 34% among in-person caucusgoers, which actually trails Warren's 38%.”
One more point—rather than just having Iowa winnow the field, the five names above are also the five names leading the field nationally in all the top metrics—money raised, poll numbers, and overall buzz. There may be 24 names in the field, but only five matter.