Morning Digest: House GOP recruitment chair shocks colleagues by announcing her own retirement

Indiana's 5th Congressional District Rep. Susan Brooks (R)

_{The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.}

Leading Off

● IN-05: Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks, who was appointed to lead the NRCC's recruitment efforts in January, revealed on Friday that she had completely failed in her job when she announced that she would retire from Congress at the end of this term. And it doesn't sound like Brooks will be in charge of finding another Republican to try and hold onto a seat that's been drifting to the left in recent years, either.

The congresswoman told USA Today on Thursday, the day before she made her decision public, that she hadn't even told the NRCC she was retiring, throwing up her hands and saying, "I have no idea what they're going to do." Brooks acknowledged she might need to step down as recruitment chair, though remarkably, committee chair Tom Emmer told a reporter, "Susan has assured me that she will be increasing her recruitment efforts, so we are full steam ahead."

Brooks's decision is not just an embarrassment to House Republicans: It will also give Democrats an even better shot at picking up her district. Indiana's 5th District, which includes Indianapolis's northern suburbs, had long been reliably red. However, after voting for Mitt Romney by a 57-41 margin in 2012, it gave Donald Trump a smaller 53-41 win four years later even though the state as a whole was moving in the opposite direction.

And that trend continued last year: Even though Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly lost his bid for re-election by a 51-45 spread, the National Journal previously reported that he narrowly carried the 5th. Democrats had talked about targeting Brooks before she retired, and her departure should make this an even more tempting race for Team Blue.

There's a third big reason why Brooks's departure is a huge problem for the GOP: A former U.S. attorney who was first elected to Congress in 2012, Brooks is one of just 13 women in the House Republican caucus. (As FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich snarked on Friday, "Just like that, the GOP caucus loses 8% of its women.")

What's more, Brooks, a former U.S. attorney who first won election to the House in 2012, had been tasked with expanding that very small pool. However, that role was a step down from the job she actually wanted: In late 2018, just after the GOP's electoral wipeout, Brooks was booted off her party's influential Steering Committee, which is in charge of assignments to other committees, and she publicly acknowledged how "disappointed" she was. (Brooks was, of course, replaced on the committee by a man.)

Speculation soon swirled that Brooks could leave the House to run for state attorney general or just outright bail. The NRCC, of course, huffily dismissed any such possibility. In February, after the DCCC issued a list of possible GOP retirees that included Brooks, an NRCC spokesperson responded, "Democrats adding Susan Brooks to a retirement list is almost as laughable as their Green New Deal." The aide continued, "Before Democrats try abolishing ICE, airplanes and individual freedoms, perhaps they should start by abolishing this asinine list."

Brooks herself seemed to commit to running again in the early spring, with Roll Call reporter Simone Pathé writing that the congresswoman was "energized by her position as chairwoman of recruitment for the National Republican Congressional Committee." However, given the extreme dysfunction that has engulfed the NRCC lately, we shouldn't be surprised that Brooks grew to find the job a whole lot less energizing now.

Brooks said she wouldn't run for any other office next year, explaining, "This really is not about the party. It's not about the politics. It's just about, 'How do I want to spend the next chapter of my life?'" Evidently, that chapter does not include helping her party claw its way back from the minority next year.

Senate

● GA-Sen: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote Friday that Sarah Riggs Amico, who was Team Blue's 2018 nominee for lieutenant governor, is "expected to jump in the race within weeks, perhaps shortly after the end-of-June fundraising deadline." Amico, who is the executive chair of the logistics and trucking firm Jack Cooper, lost last November by a narrow 51.6-48.4 margin.

● ME-Sen: Democrats got their first noteworthy candidate against GOP Sen. Susan Collins Thursday when Betsy Sweet, who took third place in last year's primary for governor, announced she was in. Sweet may have some competition soon, though. Both the Huffington Post and Bangor Daily News report that Democrats expect state House Speaker Sara Gideon to launch her own campaign after the legislative session ends on June 19.

Sweet worked as a lobbyist for progressive causes in the state capitol before she entered the 2018 open seat race for governor, where she was the only Democrat to participate in the state's public financing system. Maine utilized its instant-runoff voting system for the first time that year and Sweet was the first choice of 16% of voters, which was good for third place in the seven-person field.

Sweet picked up more support as the trailing candidates were gradually eliminated from contention, and she took 25% in the third round of tabulations. This put her behind Janet Mills and Adam Cote, who had 41% and 35%, respectively, and took her out of contention for the fourth and final round. Mills ended up beating Cote 54-46 and winning in November.

● NC-Sen: On Friday, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham and former state Treasurer Richard Moore each expressed interest in seeking the Democratic nod to take on GOP Sen. Thom Tillis. Cunningham seems to be much further along on his deliberations, and The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill says that some Democrats are convinced he'll get in; Morrill adds that an announcement could come as soon as the week of June 17. Moore, by contrast, told Spectrum News that he doesn't have a timeline to decide.

Neither Moore nor Cunningham has been on the ballot since they each lost high-profile statewide primaries about a decade ago. Moore ran for governor in 2008 and lost to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue 56-40. Perdue went on to win the general and serve one term, while Moore currently leads First Bancorp, the largest community bank in North Carolina.

Cunningham was elected to his only term in the legislature in 2000, and he decided not to run again after the 2002 round of redistricting redrew his seat. Cunningham went on to serve in both Iraq and Afghanistan as a lawyer in the Army Reserve, and he earned a Bronze Star for his work prosecuting contractor fraud. Cunningham entered the 2010 primary to take on GOP Sen. Richard Burr but lost the primary runoff to Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 60-40. Cunningham, who currently serves as an executive at a waste reduction company, announced that he would run for lieutenant governor this cycle back in December, but he said Friday that he was interested in switching contests.

So far, Democrats have yet to land a top-tier candidate in this race. Among the Democrats already running, state Sen. Erica Smith and Mecklenburg County Commissioner Trevor Fuller both jumped in in January. However, Smith only raised a mere $21,000 in the first quarter, and Fuller only took in $24,000.

While WRAL reported a month ago that former state Treasurer Janet Cowell was expected to announce within days, we haven't heard anything from her since then. Morrill wrote Friday that Cunningham, along with Cowell and state Sen. Jeff Jackson, was one of the people whom national Democrats "reportedly have courted," while Moore said he's spoken to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer about running.

Gubernatorial

● MT-Gov, MT-AL: On Friday, GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte confirmed that he'd be giving up his seat in the House to run for governor of Montana. For a tour through Gianforte's failed campaigns and his infamous assault on a reporter, we invite you to delve into our recent catalog of his troubled career. But on this occasion, we'd like to pay special attention to a moment before Gianforte ever ran for anything ... a moment 6,000 years in the making.

Back in 2015, before Gianforte announced he would run for governor against Democratic incumbent Steve Bullock, he gave a speech to the Montana Bible College. In that speech, the ultra-wealthy Gianforte not only decried the very concept of retirement, he invoked Noah—yeah, the Noah—to do so. The school took down the audio of Gianforte's remarks once they started rocketing around, but luckily, the Huffington Post captured a transcript:

"There's nothing in the Bible that talks about retirement. And yet it's been an accepted concept in our culture today. Nowhere does it say, 'Well, he was a good and faithful servant, so he went to the beach.' It doesn't say that anywhere.

"The example I think of is Noah. How old was Noah when he built the ark? 600. He wasn't like, cashing Social Security checks, he wasn't hanging out, he was working. So, I think we have an obligation to work. The role we have in work may change over time, but the concept of retirement is not biblical."

Gianforte lost that race to Bullock 50-46, but he was soon elected to the House in a 2017 special election. Based on this speech, we should expect another 550 or so years of campaigning from Gianforte.

House

● CA-21: We haven't heard anything from former GOP Rep. David Valadao about his 2020 plans, but the National Journal's Ally Mutnick reports that unnamed sources close to him say he's "seriously considering" seeking a rematch against Democratic incumbent TJ Cox. Oklahoma Rep. and former NRCC chair Tom Cole also relays that the NRCC is trying to recruit Valadao. This Central Valley seat, which stretches from the Fresno area south to Bakersfield, backed Clinton 55-40.

However, as we've noted before, if we're waiting for a public statement from the former Republican congressman, we may be waiting a very very very long time. Last year, Valadao declared victory on election night and then said nothing publicly as his lead slowly dwindled as more ballots were counted. It was only in early December, about a month after Election Day, that Valadao spoke, and he used that occasion to concede defeat to Cox. California's filing deadline is in December, so Valadao can only keep Republicans waiting for so long, though.

Mutnick notes that the GOP doesn't have a great bench here if Valadao declines to run. She mentions former state Sen. Andy Vidak and Kings County Supervisor Craig Pedersen as possibilities, but there's no word from either of them about their interest. Vidak ran for Congress back in 2010 against Democratic incumbent Jim Costa in a seat that includes much of what is now the 21st District, and he lost just 52-48. Vidak won a 2013 special election to the legislature, but he lost his seat last year 56-44.

● ME-02: Former GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin hasn't said publicly whether he's considering seeking a rematch with Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, but the National Journal reports he's indeed mulling a comeback.

Trump carried this rural northern Maine seat 51-41, but in last year's race, which utilized instant-runoff voting for the first time, Golden narrowly unseated Poliquin 50.6-49.4 once votes were assigned to subsequent preferences as minor candidates were eliminated. Poliquin, who took a slim plurality among first-preference votes, has never accepted his defeat as legitimate, and he ranted in April, "We won in 2018" and that instant-runoff voting was "the biggest scam I've ever seen in my whole life."

The National Journal adds that even Republican operatives who think Poliquin can win in 2020 think he made some real mistakes last time. They singled out one truly strange ad set in a local hot dog restaurant that featured diners awkwardly and unconvincingly praising Poliquin and dissing Golden. Some sample dialogue: "One thing's for certain, Bruce Poliquin's good for jobs," and "Stopping Mainers from buying heating oil? Golden's out there."

● NC-03: House Freedom Action, which is the campaign arm of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, is up with an ad against pediatrician Joan Perry in the July 9 GOP primary runoff. The narrator accuses Perry of opposing Trump's emergency declaration and having gone on TV "to help a Pelosi Democrat beat a North Carolina Republican for Congress by less than 1,000 votes."

That's last bit is a reference to how in 2012, Perry and her husband both appeared in a campaign ad for Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre in the neighboring 7th District as he was trying to fend off Republican David Rouzer. McIntyre, who was one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, was hardly a Pelosi ally even before that contest, and he again voted against her in the 2013 speakership race. McIntyre retired in 2014, and he was succeeded by Rouzer. There is no word on the size of the buy for the House Freedom Action spot.

● NY-22: The National Journal mentions Binghamton Mayor Rich David and 2018 gubernatorial nominee Marc Molinaro as possible Republican opponents against freshman Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi, but there's no word on either of their interest. According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Molinaro carried this seat by a wide 56-36 margin even as he was losing statewide to Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo 60-36.

However, none of Dutchess County, where Molinaro serves as county executive, is located in the 22nd District. About 60% of the county is in Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney's 18th District while the balance is in Democrat Antonio Delgado's 19th District. Molinaro carried both those seats last year as well, but we haven't heard any chatter yet about him challenging either Democratic incumbent.

● PA-08: The National Journal reported on Thursday that former GOP Rep. Lou Barletta was considering a bid against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, but Barletta doesn't sound very likely to do it. The former congressman, who was Team Red's 2018 Senate nominee, told The Times-Tribune's Borys Krawczeniuk, "I'm not thinking about running." Barletta explicitly didn't rule it out, adding, "I'll never close the door on anything," but he continued by saying he was "enjoying this part of my life. Right now, I'm looking at some business opportunities."

This seat, which includes Scranton, swung from 55-43 Obama to 53-44 Trump, but it was friendly turf for Team Blue last year. According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Barletta lost the seat to Sen. Bob Casey 52-47, while Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf carried it 56-43. Cartwright also defeated wealthy businessman John Chrin by a convincing 55-45 margin.

The GOP wants to target Cartwright again, but they don't have any serious contenders right now. Chrin filed with the FEC back in March for a rematch but hasn't made any obvious moves towards running since then, and Krawczeniuk writes that he "isn't planning on running again next year." Attorney Maria Montero also said no.

However, Luzerne County District Attorney Stefanie Salavantis didn't rule out running when asked. Instead, she told Krawczeniuk, "At this point, I'm focusing on my job as district attorney," and added, "I haven't even thought about it. At this point, this is all rumors. It's something I've never stated I was interested in." Luzerne County makes up close to 40% of the 8th District, so Salavantis would start with a good base of support if she got in.

Former federal prosecutor Joe Peters, who has unsuccessfully run for office several times, also didn't say no. He instead said, "I haven't given it any serious thought. I would have to see a groundswell of support and financial support to go with it." Peters lost the 2018 primary to Chrin 48-35 and lost this year's nominating convention for special election in the nearby 12th District.

Mayoral

● Kansas City, MO Mayor: Alissia Canady, who took third place in the crowded April nonpartisan primary, endorsed fellow City Councilor Quinton Lucas days ahead of Tuesday's general election.

● Salt Lake City, UT Mayor: The Alliance for a Better Utah, which is co-sponsoring a mayoral debate later this month, is out with a survey from the Democratic firm PPP ahead of the August nonpartisan primary for this open seat race. They give former Democratic state Sen. Jim Dabakis the lead with 27%, while Democratic state Sen. Luz Escamilla edges former City Councilman Stan Penfold 10-8 for the second spot in the general election. This is the first poll we've seen after Mayor Jackie Biskupski announced her retirement in March.