Before a deep dive into the latest data, let me just say from the start that I do have a favorite in this 2020 race and her name is Elizabeth Warren. Her steady stream of thoughtful policies and her ability to confront matters large and small, from dealing with systemic racism and the structures of racism all the way to helping one woman get a plan together to find a life partner, Elizabeth Warren has been wowing me over the last three months.
Her campaign struggled a bit at first, but she’s finding her footing and gaining steam by the day. A flurry of recent polls show her passing Bernie Sanders and moving into second place behind Joe Biden on some key states, while Biden seems to be doing everything he can to slip into second place with one misstatement at a time. He’s also light on policy, simply saying his main plan to fix what is wrong with the country is to beat Trump and the rest will come.
In recent discussions with friends and family, both in person and online, one central theme keeps popping up whenever the discussion turns to 2020. Over and over I hear, “I’m really loving Elizabeth Warren, but is she electable? Is Joe Biden more electable?” It is a hard question to answer, but so many people seem to be asking it. Avalanche Strategies commissioned a poll from online polling company, Civiqs, asking likely voters who they would prefer if the “electability” question were absent.
When perceived electability is removed from consideration, the Democratic primary race tightens significantly.
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When choosing a preferred president absent considerations of electability, 21% chose Warren, 19% chose Biden, 19% chose Sanders, 16% chose Buttigieg, 12% chose Harris, and 4% chose O’Rourke.
This poll points to gender as the primary factor when considering who is and who is not electable.
Gender appears to have a greater effect on perceived electability than age, race, ideology, or sexual orientation.
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19% of those who would make a female candidate president believe that gender is a primary barrier to increasing electability.
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Among those who raise gender as an issue, 62% express beliefs that American voters will not elect a woman. Their concerns are not about the capability of female candidates, so much as they are about the willingness of Americans to elect a woman.
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This data suggests that at the time the survey was conducted, the preferred candidate by a small margin when electability is removed from the equation, is a woman.
As a woman, it is infuriating. This is the type of behavior that elevates men over women every single day in workplaces across the country. Hell, across the world.
The electability gap is driven in large part by beliefs about how gender is perceived in America today. Those who see gender as a barrier to electability consistently express beliefs that other voters will not vote for a woman. These findings suggest that many voters may not need to be convinced that a female candidate is more capable — they must be convinced that Americans are capable of electing them.
When it comes to perceived electability, the greatest messaging challenge for the campaigns of female candidates may be less about the story of their candidate and more about the story of America today.
Emphasis added. We have to change this perception. Otherwise it becomes a never-ending self-fulfilling prophecy. As Maurice Mitchell recently wrote for Prism, let’s start being honest about what “electability” really means.
To political pundits and the press: I invite you to swap the word “electability” with “white;” “viability” with “well-funded by large-dollar donors;” and “likable” with “male.” Maybe then we’ll have a news cycle in which a politician who reinforces racist or sexist norms is the one deemed unelectable. At the very least we’ll live in a media environment where we are fully transparent about the biases that have kept progressives, women, people of color and other underrepresented communities out of the halls of power for a generation.
These gender barriers are deeply rooted and it won’t be easy, but it can be done. It has to be done. It will be done, eventually. What if we start intently expressing a different belief today? What if we start loudly proclaiming that she is electable because she’s the most qualified and the most prepared?
“We but mirror the world. All the tendencies present in the outer world are to be found in the world of our body. If we could change ourselves, the tendencies in the world would also change. As a man changes his own nature, so does the attitude of the world change towards him. This is the divine mystery supreme. A wonderful thing it is and the source of our happiness. We need not wait to see what others do.” — Mahatma Gandhi
If you don’t think Warren, Harris, Klobuchar, Gillibrand or any of the other women in the race are electable, maybe it’s time to look in your own mirror?
