The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Queens County, NY District Attorney: Queens County, New York holds its seven-way Democratic primary on Tuesday to succeed longtime District Attorney Richard Brown, who announced he would retire in January and died in office last month. The New York Times wrote in January that Brown’s office still used “a number of hard-nosed policies aimed at compelling people to plead guilty,” and nearly all the seven Democratic candidates have pledged to adopt a considerably more progressive approach. Whomever wins the Democratic nod should have little trouble in the November general election in this deep-blue New York City borough.
Campaign Action
One candidate has picked up the bulk of the endorsements and national attention in the homestretch. Public defender Tiffany Cabán, who works as an attorney for the New York County Defender Services, is running on a platform of prosecuting Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents “who exceed their authority” to detain undocumented immigrants residing in Queens.
Cabán, who at 31 is over a decade younger than any of her six rivals, has also stood out with her call to decriminalize sex work. Before this week Cabán already had the support of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who represents part of Queens, as well as Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner, who has made a name for himself nationally for pursuing criminal justice reform.
On Tuesday, one week ahead of the primary, Cabán also earned an endorsement from The New York Times, which is the dominant paper in the city. The paper said that, while it believed Cabán didn’t have the “managerial experience” of some of her rivals, she “would come into office unencumbered by ties to the borough power structure and free to pursue her commitment to serve the community by doing more than just winning convictions.”
The paper also wrote that Cabán, who “identifies as a queer Latina” and “is the first in her family to graduate from college,” would “bring a perspective suited to one of the world’s most diverse communities, one where elected officials have rarely reflected that reality.” The following day, Cabán picked up the support of two prominent presidential candidates, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.
Cabán faces a number of other candidates next week, several of whom started the race with a much larger base of support than her and have considerably more money to spend. The most prominent candidate is Queens Borough President Melinda Katz, a longtime New York City politician (Katz narrowly lost a 1998 congressional primary to none other than Anthony Weiner).
Katz, who had the most cash available in late May, has the backing of a number of prominent establishment figures and groups including Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Rep. and county Democratic Party chair Gregory Meeks, and the big four unions in New York City politics: 1199 SEIU, SEIU 32BJ, the Hotel Trades Council, and the United Federation of Teachers.
The other sitting elected official in the race is New York City Councilman Rory Lancman, whom longtime Digest readers may remember from his 2012 primary campaign for New York’s 6th District; Lancman lost to now-Rep. Grace Meng 53-25. Lancman is well-funded and has the backing of police reform activist Gwen Carr, the mother of the late Eric Garner.
City & State’s Jeff Coltin characterized Lancman as a candidate who “occupies a middle ground where he could appeal to both progressive voters who want to see radical change and establishment voters who want somebody from within the political system,” which could be either an asset or a liability in this crowded race.
But wait, there’s more! Also in the running is former Queens Supreme Court Judge Gregory Lasak, whom Coltin says “had been the heir apparent to the office for years.” There’s Mina Malik, a former Washington, D.C. deputy attorney general and New York City Civilian Complaint Review Board executive director. Attorney Betty Lugo is a former Republican who is running as the most moderate candidate, but she doesn’t have much cash. Neither does Jose Nieves, a former deputy chief state attorney general.
Senate
● MN-Sen: GOP state Sen. Karin Housley, who lost last year to Democratic Sen. Tina Smith 53-42, has been considering another campaign for a while, and she said this week she'll decide by the end of June. Former Rep. Jason Lewis has also been talking about challenging Smith, and both he and Housley said that they're willing to run against one another in the primary.
● NC-Sen: Former Democratic state Sen. Cal Cunningham picked up an endorsement from VoteVets on Wednesday. Cunningham served in both Iraq and Afghanistan as a lawyer in the Army Reserve, and he earned a Bronze Star for his work prosecuting contractor fraud.
Gubernatorial
● IN-Gov: GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb has an event set for July 13, and his team isn't denying that he'll use it to announce he's running for re-election. There hasn't been any serious talk of Holcomb calling it quits, and no notable Republicans have made noises about challenging him in the primary.
● KY-Gov: Medium Buying reported Tuesday that the RGA's affiliated group Putting Kentucky First has placed a total of $1.16 million in TV time to support GOP Gov. Matt Bevin in this fall's general election, and that their current schedules run through July 3.
● LA-Gov: Rebuild Louisiana, a nonprofit supporting Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards, is out with a TV spot praising his record on teacher pay and school funding. There is no word on the size of the buy.
● NC-Gov: Two GOP pollsters are out with very different early numbers for next year's race for governor of North Carolina, and let's just say one looks a lot more plausible than the other. Spry Strategies, which polled on behalf of the state Republican Party, found GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest edging Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper 44-40 at the start of June. However, Harper Polling's survey for the conservative Civitas Institute, which was conducted June 8-10, found Cooper beating Forest by a wide 47-37. Forest formed an exploratory committee earlier this year, but he has not yet announced he's in.
While Democrats can never take anything for granted in North Carolina, there are a few very good reasons to think Spry's numbers are off. To begin with, 70% of their sample is over the age of 65, while this demographic made up just 18% of the electorate in the 2016 exit poll.
Spry also gives Cooper a mighty 60-38 approval rating but just a 43-38 favorable score. Approval ratings and favorable ratings are not the same thing, but the gap between them isn't usually anywhere near that wide. Donald Trump also sports a 57-43 approval rating, which also seems very high in a state he carried by a small 50-46 margin.
The only other poll we've seen from this firm was a survey during last year's GOP primary for governor of Tennessee that was taken for a group backing then-state House Speaker Beth Harwell. We also saw a handful of surveys last year from Revily, which shares a top executive with Spry. Spry's page also features a testimonial from Cade Cothren, whom they still identify as the chief of staff to Tennessee state House Speaker Glenn Casada. Cothren resigned over a month ago in what our This Week in Statehouse Action newsletter called "a riveting tale of intrigue, racism, illegal drug use on state property, misogyny, and betrayal," and Casada is stepping down as speaker in disgrace in August.
Harper, by contrast, has 29% of its sample over 65: That's still much higher than what the 2016 exit poll had, but the difference is nowhere near as stark as what Spry found. The survey also gives Cooper a 53-34 approval rating (they did not ask about his favorable rating), while Trump is slightly underwater at 47-51.
Polling has been pretty light out of North Carolina this year, though a January survey from the Democratic firm PPP had Cooper beating Forest 47-35. That poll found Cooper with a 44-35 approval rating, while Morning Consult gave the governor a 49-28 score in the first quarter of the year.
● ND-Gov: Last week, prominent North Dakota progressive radio host Joel Heitkamp published a column encouraging his sister, former Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, to run for governor of North Dakota next year. Joel Heitkamp began by saying he hasn't even asked his sister if she's interested and "she hasn't said." He went on to write, "It's clear that many people want Heidi to run. Obviously, some don't, but there are definitely those who do. And to them, I can honestly say that I don't know what her answer may be."
Back in January, Heidi Heitkamp didn't quite rule out challenging GOP Gov. Doug Burgum, but she didn't sound very likely to do it. The former senator, who lost re-election 56-44 last year, doesn't appear to have said anything new since then, and she didn't respond to a request for comment this week from Forum News Service. Heitkamp was Team Blue's nominee for governor back in 2000, and she considered running again in the 2016 cycle.
North Dakota Republicans have held the governor's office since 1992, and it doesn't look like that streak is in much danger of ending this cycle. The Peace Garden State has become very hostile turf for Democrats especially over the last decade, and Heitkamp's wide defeat cost Team Blue their only statewide elected office. Morning Consult also gave Burgum a 55-21 approval rating for the first quarter of 2019, so it also doesn't look like voters are unhappy with the status quo. Burgum has not yet committed to running for re-election, but he said recently, "I'd say we have strong interest in continuing the work that we're doing."
While Burgum won his 2016 primary in an upset against Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, a candidate backed by the state party establishment, no notable North Dakota Republicans have shown any interest in taking on the governor this time. State Rep. Rick Becker, who ran last time but dropped out before the primary after losing at the party convention, said he wanted a libertarian-minded candidate to run, but that he probably wouldn't be the one to step up. Stenehjem, who won re-election in 2018, also says he's not interested in another try, and U.S. Attorney Drew Wrigley said no as well.
Not many Democrats are clamoring to run, either, though state House Minority Leader Josh Boschee explicitly didn't rule it out. Boschee was the Democratic nominee in last year's bizarre race for secretary of state, a contest he lost 47-38. Former Senate Minority Leader Mac Schneider, who lost last year's open seat U.S. House race to Republican Kelly Armstrong 60-35, also wasn't quite a no, but he said he was very unlikely to run.
House
● AZ-06: This week, Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Tom O'Halleran endorsed physician Hiral Tipirneni in the primary to take on GOP Rep. David Schweikert.
● ME-02: 2018 GOP Senate nominee Eric Brakey said this week that he would decide sometime in the summer whether he'd challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. Last year Brakey lost the 2nd District by a 50-41 margin in his contest against independent Sen. Angus King.
● MI-03: The Associated Press reports that Hillary Scholten, an attorney with the Michigan Immigrant Rights Center, is "expected" to join the Democratic primary, and reporter David Eggert says it looks like her announcement will come in July. Attorney Nick Colvin recently launched his own bid for the Democratic nod for this Grand Rapids-area seat, where Rep. Justin Amash faces a tough GOP primary.
● MT-AL: The Club for Growth has launched a TV spot on Montana Fox affiliates well ahead of next year's GOP primary, and Advertising Analytics puts the size of the buy at $30,000. The ad declares that Secretary of State Corey Stapleton "was found guilty of four separate ethics violations for using state resources to benefit his own political campaign." They also go after Stapleton for "costing taxpayers $265,000 when he sent out an inaccurate state voter guide." The Club is supporting state Auditor Matt Rosendale, who was Team Red's 2018 Senate nominee.
● UT-01: GOP Rep. Rob Bishop announced all the way back in August of 2017 that he would retire in 2020, but the contest to succeed him has been very slow to develop. Indeed, until this week, our usually chatty friend the Great Mentioner has been silent when it comes to naming local politicians who could run here. However, that changed Wednesday when UtahPolicy's Bryan Schott took a deep dive into the potential GOP field for this district, which includes Ogden and some of the Salt Lake City area. This northern Utah seat is safely red: Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton 50-22 here, with conservative independent Evan McMullin also taking 22 percent.
Schott writes that former RNC member Bruce Hough is the potential candidate who gets mentioned the most by local GOP politicos. Hough, who co-founded the nutritional supplement company Nutraceutical, has yet to say anything publicly about his interest, but Schott writes that he's been "reportedly laying the groundwork for a campaign since late 2018." Schott also relays that Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt has been preparing to run as well, though she also has been silent about her plans.
A number of other Utah Republicans are also reportedly eyeing this seat. They include:
- State Senate President Stuart Adams
- State Rep. Lee Perry
- Clearfield Mayor Mark Shepherd
- Utah Credit Union Association head Scott Simpson
- Davis County Commissioner Bob Stevenson
- State Rep. Logan Wilde
GOP sources also have mentioned state Rep. Paul Ray and former Weber County Commissioner Kerry Gibson as possibilities, though Schott notes that Gibson recently took a job heading the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food.
A few local Republicans tell UtahPolicy they won't run. This list consists of state Sens. Ann Milner and Todd Weiler, state House Majority Leader Francis Gibson, state House Majority Whip Mike Schultz, and state House Speaker Brad Wilson.
The only notable Republican who has publicly expressed interest in running so far is state Rep. Stephen Handy. Handy told Utah Policy that fundraising will be a big factor in his decision, saying, "If you had a couple hundred thousand dollars of your own money to throw around, that would be great. This is going to be a $500,000 race, so that's a major consideration for me."
Legislative
● Special Elections: Here's a recap of Tuesday's two special elections in Florida.
FL-HD-07: Republican Jason Shoaf defeated Democrat Ryan Terrell 71-29 to win this large Panhandle-based district. This district has been a longtime Republican stronghold, however Shoaf was still able to improve on both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney's past presidential margins.
FL-HD-38: Republican Randy Maggard was victorious over Democrat Kelly Smith 56-44. Smith's presence on the ballot represented a shift for Democrats, who have not had a candidate run for this seat since 2014, when former state Rep. Daniel Burgess defeated his Democratic challenger 60-40. Smith, who had the backing of state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried and former Sen. Bill Nelson, improved upon that deficit and Hillary Clinton's 56-40 defeat here in 2016.
Republicans control this chamber 73-47 with all vacancies now filled.
Mayoral
● Kansas City, MO Mayor: Kansas City held its general election for mayor on Tuesday and Quinton Lucas defeated fellow City Councilor Jolie Justus by a wide 59-41 margin. Both general election candidates identified as Democrats in this nonpartisan race.
Lucas emphasized his differences with termed-out Mayor Sly James, who supported Justus. Lucas argued that James had been too secretive when conducting city business, especially when it came to a major airport terminal construction deal that several city councilors said they'd never been told about before it was publicly announced. Lucas, who grew up poor and at times homeless, also criticized incentives for developers and called for more affordable housing.
