The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● AL-Sen: On Thursday, Alabama Republican Roy Moore announced that he would seek a rematch with Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Moore was Team Red's nominee here in the 2017 special election and lost 50-48 after multiple women accused him of preying on them when they were teenagers. Moore never conceded defeat to Jones (nor has he conceded his 2006 and 2010 primary losses for governor), and he's spent months talking about running again.
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Moore is the only Republican in a decade to lose a statewide general election in Alabama, and national Republicans have absolutely no interest in letting him cost them another Senate race. In February, the NRSC's executive director declared, "The NRSC's official stance is ABRM: anyone but Roy Moore." Donald Trump, who still supported Moore during that special election, even tweeted a few weeks ago that, while he had "NOTHING against Roy Moore," the former state Supreme Court chief justice "cannot win, and the consequences will be devastating....Judges and Supreme Court Justices!"
Democrats, though, would love to face the damaged Moore again, and Jones all but dared him to run again back in February. However, while Moore, who thrilled social conservatives when he was effectively ejected as chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court in both 2003 and 2015, still has a dedicated base of support at home, it's tough to see him winning the GOP nod again after all that happened in 2017. It doesn't help him that Alabama requires a runoff in primary contests where no one earns a majority of the vote, so he can't just get through a crowded field to win with only a plurality of the vote.
And while Moore, who defeated appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the 2017 runoff, is one of the few people in modern Republican politics to beat a Trump-endorsed candidate in a primary, he may have a much tougher time overcoming the White House's opposition in 2020. Last time, Trump spoke well of Moore even while he was stumping for Strange. Trump even said that he "might have made a mistake" by not backing Moore instead of Strange―a statement he made at what was supposed to be a rally for Strange.
Things could go very differently, though, in a primary in which Trump is actually opposing Moore. In today's environment, when a tweet from Trump is often the biggest factor in deciding who wins or loses a GOP primary, that distinction could indeed make all the difference.
A few Republicans are already running including Rep. Bradley Byrne, state Rep. Arnold Mooney, and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville. The biggest question looming over the race now that Moore's in is whether or not former Sen. Jeff Sessions, whose 2017 departure led to the special election that Moore lost, will run to reclaim his old seat. Sessions, who went through an unhappy stint as Trump's attorney general, didn't rule out the idea as recently as May, but he's taken no obvious steps towards running.
Sen. Richard Shelby, who was Sessions' home-state Senate colleague for 20 years, praised him on Wednesday and said he'd make a formidable candidate. However, Shelby admitted he didn't know what Sessions would do, adding, "He hasn't said to me yes or no." Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt was less optimistic, saying that he recently spoke to Sessions and "he doesn't sound to be interested in coming back to the Senate." Alabama's candidate filing deadline is in early November, so Sessions doesn't have too long to make up his mind.
Senate
● WY-Sen: Former GOP Rep. Cynthia Lummis filed with the FEC on Thursday for a potential bid for this open Senate seat, but her team says she hasn’t made a final decision. Lummis’ treasurer said that the former congresswoman “is talking to people all over Wyoming and doing her due diligence. However, she does not have a statement to make right now beyond that and will make her decision in the coming weeks.”
Lummis retired from Wyoming’s only House seat in 2016 and was succeeded by Liz Cheney. The two reportedly do not like one another, and Lummis’ former chief of staff said last month that she was willing to run against Cheney in a Senate primary.
Gubernatorial
● NC-Gov: The Democratic pollster PPP takes another look at their home state of North Carolina, and they give Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper a small 45-41 edge in a hypothetical general election with GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest. Cooper posted a wide 47-35 lead back in January, and PPP writes, "The movement since then is due to Forest consolidating his support among Republican leaning voters." However, this survey also finds Cooper with just a 40-41 approval rating, which is down from the 44-35 score he enjoyed earlier this year.
Earlier this week, the GOP firm Harper Polling released a poll for the conservative Civitas Institute that found Cooper leading Forest 47-37, and they gave the governor a strong 53-34 approval rating. It's hard to get a good sense for how popular Cooper is since there's been so little other polling out of the Tar Heel State this year, though Morning Consult gave him a 49-28 score in the first quarter of the year.
Forest is term-limited in his current gig and formed an exploratory committee earlier this year (he has yet to announce he's running), and so far, no other notable Republicans have entered the race. However, PPP's memo says that state Rep. Holly Grange is "widely expected" to run. Grange doesn't appear to have said anything publicly about her interest, but back in late April, Alexander Jones of the local politics blog PoliticsNC wrote that there were rumors that GOP Sen. Thom Tillis's team was trying to recruit her to oppose Forest.
Jones described Grange, who represents the New Hanover area and currently serves as deputy conference chair, as "[u]rban-suburban, female, an attorney with fifteen years of military experience," which he called "the kind of candidate who gets elected governor in North Carolina." Last year Grange won re-election 53-47 in a seat Trump carried 56-41 two years before.
PPP also tested Cooper against the GOP's two legislative leaders, state House Speaker Tim Moore and state Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, and finds him leading 46-38 and 46-39, respectively. Neither man has shown any obvious interest in running for governor.
● NH-Gov: While the Concord Monitor reported in January that former Democratic state Rep. Mindi Messmer was eyeing a bid for governor, she announced this week that she would instead run for the state's five-member Executive Council.
● VT-Gov: Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, who was elected statewide as the nominee of both the Democratic and Vermont Progressive Parties, has been eyeing a bid against GOP Gov. Phil Scott, and he gave a rough timeline for when he expects to decide. Zuckerman told Seven Days on Monday, "If I'm going to challenge the governor, I'll have my kickoff in November or December."
If Zuckerman gets in, he could have some competition in the Democratic primary. Former Agency of Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe said last week that she would decide whether to run "within the next couple of weeks," while Attorney General T.J. Donovan has also expressed interest but hasn't said when he plans to announce his 2020 plans.
Meanwhile, longtime lobbyist Kevin Ellis drew some attention this week when he posted an essay titled "If I Were Governor." However, it doesn't sound like Ellis is in much of a hurry to actually try to become governor. He told Seven Days, "I've got something to say, and I intend to say it," but he added, "If that drives people like Rebecca Holcombe to run, I'd be glad to step aside."
House
● FL-03: GOP Rep. Ted Yoho said as recently as October that he would keep his pledge to serve just four terms in this reliably red seat, but we're well into the cycle and still have no idea if the Freedom Caucus bomb thrower will seek a fifth term or not. The Gainesville Sun wrote Thursday that Yoho's campaign manager didn't respond to their questions about the congressman's 2020 plans, and as we noted all the way back in November, the issues page on Yoho's site no longer so much as mentions the phrase "term limits."
Yoho's fundraising doesn't answer any questions, either. The congressman took in just $10,000 during the first quarter of 2019, but that's not much less than the $15,000 he took in at that point in 2017.
Yoho, a large animal veterinarian by trade, won a previous version of this seat in 2012 by beating incumbent Cliff Stearns in a primary shocker. During that campaign, Yoho ran an ad declaring that "career politicians" like Stearns and his other two opponents were "like pigs feeding at the trough. Career politicians got us in this mess, but they just throw mud at each other."
Yoho used that spot to pledge that "after eight years in Washington, I'll come home," and the candidate called for "run[ning] the pigs out of the trough." Those were some strong words, but Yoho would hardly be the first true believer elected to Congress to decide that the trough is just fine as long as he's the one feeding from it.
This seat, which includes Gainesville and the surrounding rural areas, backed Trump 56-40, and Team Red should have little trouble holding it no matter what Yoho does. The congressman may have trouble in a primary if he does seek that fifth term, though especially if he doesn't improve his fundraising.
Back in April, businesswoman Amy Pope Wells announced that she would seek the GOP nod, and she may have some connections: Trump appointed her to a panel that supported a U.S.-Canada business council in 2017, and she served as a co-chair of the Women's Coalition backing Ron DeSantis' successful 2018 campaign for governor.
However, Pope Wells drew some bad headlines this week when Politico's Arek Sarkissian reported that she'd lost her nursing license in North Carolina in 2006 after she was reported for falsely presenting herself as a registered nurse when she really held a lower-ranking title. The North Carolina Board of Nursing accused her at the time of forging her credentials, writing, "On the certificate where it now reads registered nurse, that certificate was issued to you reading licensed practical nurse." Sarkissian also writes that Pope Wells' licensed practical nurse credentials had expired back in 1998.
Pope Wells tried to get her license back that year, but she never finished the required ethics course and it remains suspended. Pope Wells' team denied she'd committed any wrongdoing and claimed a former employer had filed a complaint against her over a contract dispute.
Other Republicans might be interested, especially if Yoho actually keeps his pledge and retires. Florida Politics mentions Clay County Commissioner Gavin Rollins as a possible contender, though there's no word from him about his plans.
● IN-05: Howey Politics takes a look at the potential GOP field to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Susan Brooks and gives us a few big updates. Former state Sen. Mike Delph, a longtime favorite of the far-right, acknowledged on Twitter that he was considering, writing, "To be honest my phone has been blowing up with calls of encouragement from throughout the 5th Congressional." However, Delph's probably not the ideal GOP candidate to hold a seat that, while still conservative, has been moving to the left. Last year, Delph lost re-election 57-43 in a seat that had swung from 50-48 Romney to 53-41 Clinton.
Howey also adds some new names to the reportedly interested column:
- U.S. Surgeon General Jerome Adams
- Former state Department of Workforce Development director Steve Braun
- State Rep. Todd Huston
- Fishers Deputy Mayor Leah McGrath
- State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell
Braun lost last year's GOP primary in the neighboring 4th District to now-Rep. Jim Baird by a 37-29 margin. Braun is also the brother of Sen. Mike Braun, though that doesn't mean he can count on the new senator's support. Last year, Steve Braun contributed to the Senate campaign of then-Rep. Todd Rokita, whom he was running to succeed in the 4th District, rather than to his brother's ultimately successful bid.
Two other Republicans, Fishers Mayor Scott Fadness and party strategist Jennifer Hallowell, both told Howey they wouldn't run. State GOP Chairman Kyle Hupfer also said Tuesday "I do not believe I will be running," and he said he expected to make a definitive statement later that week.
● NC-03: Pediatrician Joan Perry announced earlier this week that she’d be holding a press conference with Joe Anne Jones, the widow of longtime Rep. Walter Jones, and many observers quite naturally assumed that Jones would use the occasion to endorse Perry in the July 9 GOP primary runoff. However, that’s … not quite what happened.
Instead, Jones went after Perry’s opponent, state Rep. Greg Murphy, for claiming that her husband wanted him as his successor. Jones in fact said she wasn’t endorsing any candidate, but she didn’t leave much doubt that she’d much rather see Perry win this race.
This bit of strangeness began unfurling a few days ago, when a former local GOP official named Danny Gray met with Murphy to ask him if Walter Jones, who had planned to retire in 2020 but died in February, had intended to support Murphy in what would have been an open-seat race to succeed him. According to The Daily Advance, Murphy replied, “He did,” adding, “He was going to endorse me next year.”
Murphy also said that last year, Jones had offered up his support at a meeting in D.C. attended by several North Carolina GOP congressmen, including Rep. David Rouzer. A spokesperson for Rouzer, who has not taken sides in next month’s runoff, told the paper he could “confirm this” account and added, “It was clearly understood that Rep. Jones liked Dr. Murphy and hoped his colleagues would get to know him.”
However, Gray, the local party official, very much did not believe Murphy's version of events. He told the Advance that he’d responded by telling Murphy that he’d recently spoken to Joe Anne Jones, and that she’d said that her husband didn’t intend to endorse anyone. Gray went on to tell the paper that he believed Murphy had “lied” about the congressman’s wishes, saying he planned to vote for Perry.
Two senior members of Murphy’s team in turn claimed they’d heard directly from Jones that he wanted Murphy to succeed him. Referring to these two staffers, the Advance said, “They also expressed outrage and offense at Jones' support being made an issue, warning it could drag the late congressman's grieving family into the campaign.”
Well, that’s what happened, but maybe not in the way that Murphy expected. On Thursday, when Joe Anne Jones held her press conference with Perry, she declared she wanted “clear up some misconceptions of Walter Jones’ endorsement of anyone for the 3rd Congressional District.” Jones went on to say, “He thought it was very unwise for anyone to ever endorse someone else in the primary when one day you might have to face that half of the electorate you just stirred up.”
Jones maintained that she was also not endorsing in this race, and she did actually include a few nice words for Murphy. She noted that he had been her husband’s surgeon, saying, “I’ll always be grateful to him for saving his life.” However, Jones immediately continued, “But that doesn’t have anything to do with Congress. This is a whole different show.” By contrast, Jones called Perry a “dear friend” and compared her to her husband. Jones declared, “They’re kindred spirits. Nothing came to Walter more strongly than his faith in God. She’s the same type of person.”
Back in April, Murphy led Perry 23-15 in the first round of the primary. State Rep. Phil Shepard took third place with 12%, and according to the Perry campaign, he’ll be appearing with her Friday for what will be an endorsement.
● NY-15: Former Assemblyman Eric Stevenson, who left office in 2014 after he was convicted of bribery and extortion, announced this week that he was joining the primary for this safely blue Bronx seat. Stevenson, who was sentenced to three years in prison, has maintained his innocence, and compared himself on Wednesday to the Central Park Five.
● OH-01: The Cincinnati Enquirer's Jason Williams wrote Thursday that Cincinnati City Councilwoman Amy Murray is considering launching a GOP primary bid against Rep. Steve Chabot in this competitive seat. Murray didn't rule out anything when asked, though she insisted, "I'm serving two-and-a-half more years on City Council, and I'm focused on that right now."
However, there are other signs that Murray may be more interested than she sounds. Reporter Sharon Coolidge recently asked Hamilton County GOP chair Alex Triantafilou about the rumors Murray could run, and he responded, "I know there's been chatter about that. I've heard it myself." Triantafilou went on to say, "I have talked to her about it, I'll probably just leave it there," though he also said that "it would be a mistake to primary challenge" Chabot.
However, as Williams notes, Murray, who briefly served as then-Rep. Jim Renacci's running mate in last year's gubernatorial campaign (Renacci switched to the Senate race in early 2018), may have a hard time getting traction against Chabot. Williams described the city councilor as a "moderate," and noted that she wouldn't say if she'd voted for Trump as recently as December of 2017. Murray also pissed off social conservatives in 2017 when she abstained from voting on a resolution honoring a local Planned Parenthood doctor instead of opposing it.
Chabot would rather not have to worry about a primary so soon after his 51-47 general election escape last year, but no notable Democrats have entered the race yet for this 52-46 Trump seat. Williams writes that a number of local Democrats are "in a holding pattern" as they wait and see whether the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold a recent court ruling that struck down Ohio's gerrymandered congressional map.
This crowd includes 2018 nominee Aftab Pureval, former state Rep. Alicia Reece, and Jill Schiller, who was the 2018 nominee in the neighboring 2nd District. The court is poised to rule in two other gerrymandering cases in Maryland and North Carolina later this month, and the outcome will likely have a big impact in determining if Ohio's map will stand.
● VA-05: VoteVets has endorsed Marine veteran Roger Dean Huffstetler in the Democratic primary to take on freshman Rep. and senior Bigfoot enthusiast Denver Riggleman. So far no other notable Democrats have entered the race for this 53-42 Trump seat.
● NRCC: The Tom Emmer Deathwatch has begun! Emmer, a third-term Republican congressman and chair of the NRCC, has spent the last few weeks getting shredded by members of his own caucus for the crap job he's done running his committee, with special disgust directed at his lousy fundraising and incompetent comms team.
Now the anger has come bursting out in a new pair of articles, one from The Hill and the other from Politico. We've rounded up all the juiciest bits from Republican representatives and GOP operatives, which include slams like "It's a disaster," "His team is inept," "a lack of strategy," "the dysfunction within the NRCC," "he's not getting the job done," and much, much more. A few congressmen even criticized Emmer on the record!
Click through for the complete horror show, and stay tuned as the deathwatch continues!