Immigration Messages: The winners & losers.
Winners
Path to citizenship for current, undocumented immigrants
According to Gallup's Feb 2019 survey of adult Americans, 81% support a path to citizenship for immigrants in the U.S. illegally. 61% oppose deporting all illegal immigrants back to their home country.
The vast majority of Americans (81%) favor allowing immigrants living illegally in the U.S. "the chance to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements over a period of time." In 2016, the year Trump was elected president, 84% were in favor of a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally.
Increase Border Patrol
Though a majority of Americans reject major expansion of walls on the U.S.-Mexico border, three-fourths of the public favors another method of increasing border security -- the hiring of "significantly more" border patrol agents.
Immigration is a good for America
In their June, 2019 survey, Gallup found 23% of adults named immigration the most important problem facing the country. That is the heighest percentage since they began tracking the issue in 1993. Gallup found while 37% wanted immigration decreased, a new record, 30%, wanted immigration to increase. "Americans still view immigration positively in general, with 76% describing it as a good thing for the country today and 19% as a bad thing."
Losers
Expand and Build Border Walls
According to Gallup's 2019 surveys, the American public is solidly against the expansion of the border walls. In the TX 2018 CNN exit poll, 49% opposed building a wall along the Mexico Border.
Family Separation of undocumented immigrants
Trump's zero tolerance policy which called for separating children from their parents was supported by just 28% of adults in 2017.
Inhumane treatment of migrants, particularly children, in detention centers
The suburbs were ground-zero for Democrats in the 2018 mid-terms.
Next to healthcare, Trump's tough immigration policies was the 2nd most cited by several surveys of suburban female voters.
The immigration debate was most front and center in the 2018 Texas Senate race. A Dallas Morning News poll showed immigration was the #1 issue for a record high 39% of voters. Exit polls ranked immigration just 2 points behind healthcare (34% to 36%). 87% of the 43% of voters who felt Trump's immigration policy was too rough went for Beto. Notably, Beto flipped some Austin and Houston suburban counties and finally flipped the Dallas-Fort Worth metro-plex. Suburban women contribued to a 5% increase in female share of the vote.
In Arizona, 36% found Trump's immigration policy too tough and 90% of them voted for Sinema. Notably, Sinema flipped Phoenix and some of its suburbs. Sinema run on the winning immigration issues and avoided the losers.
In the purpling suburbs, Democrats like VA's Spanberger called out the inhumane migrant conditions and ran on winning immigration issues like DACA and beat Brat.
Decriminalizing Border Crossings
Activist call this the “Holy Grail” of immigration reform proposals.
However, it's controversial even within the Hispanic community. While Telemundo anchors praised Castro's debate performance, one anchor brought up their 2018 viewership survey did not show majority support for it. Telemundo's top network and twitter coverage was devoted instead to the more unifying message, the ground-breaking moment for Spanish to be spoken and respected at a Presidential debate.
In 2018, Texas Monthly found 1 in 3 adult Texans supported decriminalizing the border. Notably, 62% of its suburban adults were against it.
In the Texas 2018 race, advocating for decriminalizing the border was so unpopular Ted Cruz's campaign and RNC devoted a great deal of resources to paint Beto O'Rourke into a corner on this issue. Beto refused to cross this 3rd rail of Texas of politics and focused on the need for assylum seekers to be processed civilly. Texas Democratic candidates grew support in the purple suburbs by framing the issue in terms of the sympathetic asslyum seekers.
How will the immigration debate Impact 2020 Races?
In 2018, Orange County was ground zero for the DCCC's plans to win back the House.
In 2020, for the first time in a generation, DCCC has set their sights on TX. They've committed resources to flipping 6 additional Texas Congressional districts. Dallas, Houston, Austin and San Antonio suburbs will be ground zero in 2020.
The suburbs will also be ground zero for 2020 Senate races in AZ, CO, NC, TX, and GA.
At the first Democratic debate, Castro demanded the candidates back the unpopular decriminalizing border crossings proposal. Beto failed to forcefully stand up to Castro and he deeply disappointed me and others hoping to flip purpling states and suburbs. Those on the ground know the unpopularity of this proposal will hurt our eventual nomimees chances in the general election 2020.
In the 2nd debate, everyone except the two candidates from Colorado and Biden raised their hands. Say what you will about Michael Bennet but he's won a senate race in a purple state.
I want the activists to explain how do take back the Senate without Mark Kelly beating McSally running on decriminalizing the border?
How MJ Hegar can beat Cornyn when running on this Democratic Platform?
Will it help the eventual Democratic challenger destroy the vulnerable Cory Gardner?
How does this unpopular proposal help the DCCC flip purple suburban seats?
And, please, don't spout to me that Trump's white, working class base is the only ones objecting to decriminalization.
I'm a Latina. I have Cuban family in Florida. I have Puerto Rican, Veneluzean, and Mexican-American friends, some undocumented, and none of them believe this proposal will help oust Trump.
On the contrary, there is real fear all the Democratics’ current winning immigration messages will get buried and we'll be back on defense vs offense.
How do you think it impact the 2020 races?