This is the first time Warren has been tied for top two in RCP’s average.
Among the polls in that average is
this one from YouGov. As usual, I’m interested in looking at the approval-style questions they ask; in particular, for Democratic primary voters, “which candidates are you considering?” and “which candidates
that you would be disappointed if they became the Democratic nominee?” Here are those numbers for the frontrunners:
Warren clearly leads.
These numbers are broken down by race, though of course margins of error are higher for subgroups. I think that Black voters are a key group, so here are the numbers there:
Considering/disappointed for black voters:
Warren 38/4
Biden 65/9
Harris 39/7
Sanders 41/8
For these voters, Biden is clearly getting the most positive attention and Warren the least, but in terms of ratio of positive to negative attention, Warren is still competitive (technically, best; but asserting that confidently would be cherry-picking). The message for the Warren campaign would be: black voters like you fine when they see you, but you’re failing to get their attention. Hire more organizing staff in South Carolina, maybe?
….
How about in Iowa? RCP doesn’t give averages there, so let’s use
FiveThirtyEight’s list of polls. The three most recent are Change Research, David Binder Research, and Suffolk. Here are the results on all three:
Biden: 16/17/24 (average 19)
Warren: 18/20/13 (average 17)
Harris: 16/18/16 (average <17)
Buttigieg: 25/10/6 (average <14)
Sanders: 16/12/9 (average >12)
That Change Research poll looks like an outlier, but still — if Buttigieg first and Warren second is even a possibility, it would shake up the race entirely. And that meager 2-point lead can’t be comfortable for Biden...