The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Redistricting: Voting rights advocates got some stunningly good news on Tuesday when the Trump administration announced that it had ordered the printing of millions of census forms to go ahead without a citizenship question. The addition of this question would have made it easier for GOP mapmakers to create even more gerrymandered districts than what they drew up after the 2010 GOP wave. You can find more information about the background and implications of Tuesday's news here.
Campaign Action
While the administration had insisted that the Justice Department needed data on citizenship to enforce the Voting Rights Act, recently unearthed documents from a deceased GOP redistricting consultant, Thomas Hofeller, that very clearly spelled out their true motivations. Hofeller helped the DOJ author that public justification, but his private documents revealed that he believed that the citizenship question would result in "a disadvantage to the Democrats" and be "advantageous to Republicans and non-Hispanic whites” when the next round of redistricting came around after the 2020 Census.
That’s because congressional and legislative districts are traditionally drawn based on the total number of residents, not the total number of citizens or voters. However, Hofeller conducted a 2015 study and concluded that a citizen question would enable redistricting based on adult citizens turbocharge GOP gerrymandering. Combined with a likely undercount of millions in immigrant communities, the citizenship data would thus shift congressional and legislative representation from diverse, Democratic-leaning communities to whiter Republican-leaning ones.
Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the administration's justification for the citizenship question as a pretext and told it to come up with a true motive if it wanted to go forward with adding the citizenship question. While many observers feared that ruling was simply Chief Justice John Roberts telling Trump to lie more convincingly to give him plausible deniability, the Trump administration appears to have simply run out of time after it repeatedly told the courts it couldn’t wait past early July to start printing millions of census forms. You can find out more in our post here.
2Q Fundraising
● IA-Sen: Theresa Greenfield (D): $625,000 raised (in four weeks)
● NM-Sen: Ben Ray Luján (D): $1.1 million raised; Maggie Toulouse Oliver (D): $222,000 raised (in eight weeks)
● SC-Sen: Jaime Harrison (D): $1.5 million raised
● TX-Sen: MJ Hegar (D): $1 million raised
● CA-25: Katie Hill (D-inc): $720,000 raised
● CA-49: Mike Levin (D-inc): $500,000 raised
● GA-07: Lynne Homrich (R): $250,000 raised, additional $250,000 self-funded
● MI-11: Haley Stevens (D-inc): $725,000 raised, $1 million cash-on-hand
● TX-07: Westley Hunt (R): $500,000 raised
● TX-10: Shannon Hutcheson (D): $300,000 raised (in six weeks)
Senate
● AK-Sen: On Tuesday, orthopedic surgeon and commercial fisherman Al Gross announced that he would challenge GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Gross is an independent, but he said back in May that he'd seek the Democratic nomination if he ran for the Senate. Alaska allows independents to run and win party primaries, and this very scenario happened in last year's race for U.S. House when Alyse Galvin claimed the Democratic nomination: Galvin was listed on the general election ballot with both a "U" for unaffiliated and as the "Alaska Democratic Party Nominee."
Gross kicked off his campaign with an intro video produced by prominent Democratic ad maker Mark Putnam. The camera pans in on Gross' ship in the middle of the sea as the narrator declares that Gross "bought his first fishing boat with a bank loan at age 14. Piloted it through an ocean gale with Gov. Jay Hammond, father of the Permanent Fund, down below." (Gross' father, Avrum Gross, served as Hammond's attorney general in the 1970s.) The narrator also adds that Gross "[k]illed a grizzly bear in self defense after it snuck up on him," which is not a line we hear a lot in political campaigns.
As Gross is shown on his boat taking fish out of a net, the ad calls for "a leader who doesn't vote the party line." The candidate, who is standing on the deck of his boat, then tells the audience, "Dan Sullivan has voted with his party 97% of the time. Out here, if you can't think for yourself, you won't survive."
Sullivan won this seat in 2014 by narrowly beating Democratic incumbent Mark Begich in a very competitive race, but so far, he doesn't look particularly vulnerable. Alaska has been a reliably red state in presidential elections for decades, and Republican Mike Dunleavy won the governorship last year against Begich 51-44.
However, there are a few signs that Sullivan could be vulnerable if the stars align against him. Morning Consult gave the incumbent a meh 38-32 approval rating for the first quarter of 2019, while a recent poll from the Democratic firm Patinkin Research Strategies for the progressive blog The Midnight Sun showed Sullivan locked in a tight hypothetical general election against Anchorage Assemblyman Forrest Dunbar. (Dunbar has shown no obvious interest in running.)
Unfortunately, we don't have much other data to suggest Sullivan is in trouble. The incumbent also ended March with $2 million in the bank, so he's more than capable of fending for himself if need be. Still, Alaska has hosted some unexpectedly competitive races in recent years, and it's always worth fielding a credible candidate in case things get interesting.
● CO-Sen: On Tuesday, freshman Rep. Joe Neguse once again didn't rule out joining the crowded and expensive Democratic primary to take on GOP Sen. Cory Gardner. When Fox 31 reporter Joe St. George asked the congressman if he was interested in running for the Senate, Neguse responded by saying, "That's a good question," before he talked about his work in the House. After St. George pointed out that Neguse didn't say no to running, he responded, "Honestly, it has not been on my radar." Again, not a no.
● MA-Sen: Business executive Steve Pemberton formed an exploratory committee last month for a possible primary bid against Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, and Pemberton's consultant says he'll decide whether to run by the end of the summer. Labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan is already challenging Markey for the Democratic nod.
Politico's Stephanie Murray also spoke to Boston Mayor Marty Walsh about this race and she writes that, while Walsh said he "hasn't given much thought to his next political move," he hasn't "completely ruled out a Senate run." However, it would be a huge surprise if Walsh, who is hardly an enemy of the state party establishment, decided to take on Markey. State Attorney General Maura Healey also once again gave a similar answer about her plans for this cycle, but both she and Walsh seem considerably more likely to run for governor in 2022.
● ME-Sen: State House Speaker Sara Gideon announced Tuesday that she'd raised $1 million since she launched her campaign for the Democratic nod the previous week.
gubernatorial
● KY-Gov: Putting Kentucky First, which is the RGA's state affiliate, is doing everything it can to frame this year's general election between unpopular GOP Gov. Matt Bevin and Democrat Andy Beshear as a choice between a Donald Trump supporter and an ally of progressive Democrats, and they're out with another TV spot hitting that theme.
The commercial begins with footage of presidential candidates Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, as well as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Hillary Clinton, calling for resisting and defeating Trump. It then shows a clip of Beshear declaring, "Folks, this is an opportunity. Not just to stop the negative policies of Donald Trump." The narrator then declares that Beshear backed Clinton and then "became part of the radical resistance repeatedly suing to stop Trump's agenda." The ad doesn't go into any detail about what Beshear is fighting the administration over, though the Lexington Herald-Leader notes that he's part of a multi-state lawsuit to stop Trump attempts to undermine the Affordable Care Act.
Beshear has spent most of the race downplaying any possible friction between him and the Trump administration. On Wednesday, though, he declared at a campaign event, "This is an opportunity not just to stop the negative policies of Donald Trump but to come all come together."
The Herald-Leader also writes that the RGA has spent $1.5 million on TV ads since Beshear won the May primary. Neither Beshear or his allies have aired any general election ads going after Bevin yet.
House
● FL-20: Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings announced late last week that he would seek a 15th term in this safely blue Miami-area seat. Hastings has been receiving treatment for Stage 4 pancreatic cancer, but he said he was "going to be well enough" to run again.
● NC-03: Winning for Women is out with another TV spot ahead of next week's GOP primary runoff, and Politico says they're spending six figures to air it. The narrator argues that state Rep. Greg Murphy "praised Obamacare" and won't stand with Donald Trump to repeal it. The ad then plays audio of Murphy saying, "A lot of the programs that the ACA put forth were good."
● NY-03: DNC member and prominent party fundraiser Robert Zimmerman didn't rule out a primary bid against Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi back in February, and he still seems very interested.
Newsday writes that there have been reports of a poll pitting Suozzi against Zimmerman, and the paper asked Zimmerman if he was considering running. Zimmerman didn't take credit for the survey but instead responded, "Suozzi has been so supportive of Trump and the right wing that the only group not polling in the 3rd C.D. is the Republican Party."
Suozzi has a long electoral history on Long Island, and he won this seat in a crowded and expensive 2016 primary almost seven years after he lost re-election as Nassau County executive. However, he pissed off some progressives last year when he defended ICE and called for "some physical structures on the border," a statement he made during an interview with "Fox and Friends" no less.
Zimmerman, who runs a public relations firm and often appears on cable news, has also been a fixture in Democratic politics for decades. After losing a trio of races on Long Island in the 1980s, he became a major national party fundraiser in the 1992 presidential election. Zimmerman has remained an influential party bundler in the decades since then, and The New York Times even wrote back in 2004 that a Democratic operative dubbed him the "Pope of Long Island" due to his expansive connections and "ability to coax money from Democrats."
However, Newsday notes that Zimmerman has his own potential primary liabilities. Back in 2014, Zimmerman hosted a fundraiser at his home for the re-election campaign of Republican state Sen. Jack Martins. Zimmerman, who was also on the DNC at the time, declared, "I'm a proud Democrat, but my community and Long Island come before partisanship."
Martins won that campaign, but he lost the general election for the 3rd District two years later by a 53-47 margin to none other than Tom Suozzi. Martins was the GOP's 2017 nominee for Nassau County executive, and during the close of that campaign, he launched a racist mailer featuring images of Latino gang members. Martins ended up narrowly losing that contest to Democrat Laura Curran. Zimmerman didn't endorse Martin during either of those races, but Suozzi and his allies still might try to tie him to the high-profile Republican.
The 3rd District, which includes the Long Island towns of Huntington, North Hempstead, and Oyster Bay along with a portion of Queens, backed Hillary Clinton by a modest 52-46 margin. However, while Republicans tried to flip this seat when it opened up in 2016, they didn't make a serious effort to unseat Suozzi last year. According to Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo also carried the seat 57-41 during his 2018 re-election campaign.
● NY-22: On Tuesday, Broome County District Attorney Steve Cornwell announced that he would seek the GOP nomination to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Anthony Brindisi. This upstate New York seat backed Trump 55-39, and Brindisi will be a top GOP target.
Cornwell first ran for office in 2015 when he unseated 28-year incumbent Gerald Mollen in the general election for district attorney 51-49, a margin of just over 500 votes. Cornwell announced early this year that he would not seek re-election, and he quickly expressed interest in challenging Brindisi. Cornwell's Broome County base makes up 28% of this upstate New York seat, which could give him a decent base of support in the primary and the general election.
High school teacher Franklin Sager and frequent candidate George Phillips are already running in the GOP primary. Former Rep. Claudia Tenney expressed interest as recently as April in seeking a rematch against Brindisi, who narrowly defeated her last year, but she doesn't seem to have said anything new in months. National Republicans probably won't be upset if they never hear from her again, though. Tenney drew all sorts of bad headlines for herself last year, and she managed to lose re-election even as Republican gubernatorial nominee Marc Molinaro was carrying this seat by a wide 56-36 margin.
Another notable Republican might also run here. The local ABC affiliate NewsChannel 34 reports that national leaders invited Binghamton Mayor Rich David to D.C. earlier this year to talk about this race, and that David said in May that he likely wouldn't decide until later in the year. Last week, after reports broke about Cornwell's imminent announcement, Fox 40 asked David about his interest in running. The mayor only responded with a "no comment."
● PA-01: On Monday, Bucks County Prothonotary Judi Reiss filed with the FEC for a possible bid against GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, but she hasn't announced anything yet. Reiss was a Lower Makefield township supervisor when she ran for prothonotary, a post that administers civil court documents, in 2017. Bucks County Democrats hadn't won any countywide races other than county commissioner in more than 30 years, but Team Blue ended up winning four of the five row offices that year, including prothonotary, in a historic sweep.
This seat, which is dominated by Bucks County in the Philadelphia suburbs, backed Hillary Clinton 49-47. Fitzpatrick won re-election last year 51-49, and he's now just one of three House Republicans left holding a Clinton seat.
