On the heels of one Iowa poll showing a reshuffling of the Democratic race in the state, a second poll released Wednesday puts Sen. Elizabeth Warren first among likely Iowa caucus-goers at 20%, with Sen. Kamala Harris (18%) and former Vice President Joe Biden (17%) both trailing Warren but within the margin of error. The poll, commissioned by Focus on Rural America from David Binder Research (which is also Harris' pollster), finds that Sen. Bernie Sanders has dropped to fourth place in the poll at 12%. The only other candidate in double digits is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10%. Focus on Rural America has been commissioning the polls quarterly since last fall.
The Iowa Starting Line notes that while several post-debate polls have shown Harris surging past Warren, "Warren’s large field operation and her frequent trips here may be helping her stay up on the competition in Iowa." Harris has also recently invested significant sums in her ground game in the Hawkeye state.
Regardless of the specific numbers in this poll, the trendlines in nearly every post-debate poll tend to map similarly, with Biden taking a noticeable hit and Bernie generally losing altitude, while Harris and Warren both continue to gain steam. But Biden’s trendline in Iowa is particularly troubling, starting at 37% in Sept. 2018 and continually shedding support each quarter until hitting 17% in the latest quarterly survey.