The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Data: Daily Kos Elections is extremely excited to bring you our newest set of data, compiled by contributing editor David Jarman, that details the exact overlap between every single county in America and all 435 congressional districts—and much more.
We've also calculated similar data for every state illuminating the relationships between:
So, for instance, when a state lawmaker announces a bid for Congress, now you can know exactly what proportion of the population in their legislative district also lives in the congressional district they're now seeking. That's just one use case, though—the possibilities are limitless. In a post explaining all of this new data, Jarman walks through a variety of examples to show you how to get the most out of these new tools. Bookmark them all today!
Senate
● IA-Sen: This week, businesswoman Theresa Greenfield picked up an endorsement from AFSCME Council 61 in the Democratic primary.
● MS-Sen: On Monday, Donald Trump tweeted out an endorsement for GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith. Wealthy businessman Gerard Gibert, who serves as vice chair of the Mississippi Lottery Corporation, has talked about challenging Hyde-Smith in the primary, though he's also interested in becoming chancellor of the University of Mississippi.
● NC-Sen: End Citizens United endorsed former state Sen. Cal Cunningham on Tuesday in the Democratic primary to face GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: Wealthy Republican Eddie Rispone recently spent over $1 million for his opening TV buy, and his campaign announced this week that they'd reserved an additional $4 million in TV time through the Oct. 12 all-party primary. Rispone's team said that they'd spend even more than this, but they'd be making further buying decisions "on a week-to-week basis."
Rispone so far has been running TV spots tying himself to Donald Trump rather than attacking either of his rivals, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards or GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham, but the RGA is going up with a new commercial hitting the incumbent. The spot, which comes from the RGA's state affiliate Right Direction PAC, once again goes after Edwards over taxes.
This commercial begins with clips of Edwards saying during the 2015 campaign that he won't raise taxes, before the narrator interjects, "But he did raise taxes. Highest sales taxes in the country." The ad goes on to declare that Louisiana's economy is "ranked dead last."
Just like in their first commercial, the RGA fails to mention that the new revenues Edwards is responsible for have finally put Louisiana's perpetually dire finances on more solid footing for the first time in ages, and that the state's unemployment rate is at an 11-year low. They also once again gloss over how those new taxes they decry—chiefly a 0.45% sales tax hike—were passed by the state's Republican-dominated legislature.
Indeed, the RGA's whole ad campaign relies on the viewer forgetting just how awful the state economy was under Edwards' predecessor, Republican Bobby Jindal. Edwards, though, isn't letting Jindal off the hook, and he's been running his own ads reminding voters just how much things have improved in the last few years.
Edwards is also launching what the GOP firm Medium Buying reports is a $123,000 buy that will run during several upcoming New Orleans Saints and college football games. Medium says that Rispone is also spending $250,000 on cable buys on ESPN and the NFL Network. Abraham has not yet run any TV spots anywhere.
● MS-Gov: Mason-Dixon is out with a rare poll of next week's GOP primary, and they show Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves, who has been the frontrunner for the entire contest, failing to take the majority of the vote he'd need to avoid an Aug. 27 runoff. They give Reeves the lead with 41%, while former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. leads state Rep. Robert Foster 31-13 for the second place spot.
The only other poll we've seen of this contest was an early June survey from the Republican firm Impact Management Group. That poll, which was conducted for the conservative Mississippi blog Y'All Politics, showed Reeves with a huge 50-19 lead over Waller, with Foster at just 9%. However, Reeves himself has been acting like he thinks this contest will go into overtime. The lieutenant governor said last week that, while he's aiming to win outright, "It's hard to get to 50 when there are three people."
Foster, meanwhile, recently went up with a spot that draws attention to his brief moment of national infamy. Earlier this month, Foster refused to allow a female reporter to join him on a campaign tour unless she brought a male colleague along with her, and he defended himself by saying he wouldn't be alone with any woman who isn't his wife. (A few days later, Waller said he followed that same misogynistic rule.)
Foster's commercial stars his wife, Heather Foster, who begins, "You may have seen my husband in the news lately. Robert's not trying to set a standard, he's just living by one." Heather Foster goes on to talk about how the candidate has "lived out his faith and stood for his principles, even when it was unpopular." There is no word on the size of the buy, but considering how the Foster campaign had just $7,000 on-hand at the end of June, it's probably very small.
● NH-Gov: Steve Marchand, who came in second in both the 2016 and 2018 Democratic primaries, said this week that he wouldn't decide on another bid "until later this year or early 2020." Marchand is currently advising presidential candidate Andrew Yang, and he said that the White House contest is "my number one priority." Marchand, a former mayor of Portsmouth, lost the 2016 gubernatorial contest to Colin Van Ostern by a 51-25 margin. Two years later, Marchand lost the primary to Molly Kelly 66-34.
House
● AL-01: The anti-tax Club for Growth is out with a poll from WPA Intelligence of the GOP primary for this safely red open seat, and they give former state Sen. Bill Hightower the lead with 34% of the vote. State Rep. Chris Pringle edges Mobile County Commissioner Jerry Carl 16-12 for the second place in a hypothetical runoff, while underfunded businessman Wes Lambert takes 2%.
The Club has not yet backed anyone in this Gulf Coast seat, but they said in their release, "We will likely make a decision on who we will endorse in the coming days." It sounds like they very much like Hightower, since they declare that this survey "show[s] conservative State Senator Bill Hightower is in a strong position to win the Republican primary." Hightower ran for governor last year and ended up taking a distant fourth place with just 5% of the vote, though according to our calculations, he took 22% of the vote in the 1st District.
● AL-02: GOP state Sen. Clyde Chambliss announced Monday that he would not run for this open seat.
● AZ-09: On Thursday, Chandler Councilman Sam Huang announced that he would seek the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton. This seat, which includes a portion of Phoenix and its suburbs, was competitive turf at the start of the decade, but it's moved dramatically to the left in recent years. The seat lurched from 51-47 Obama to 55-39 Clinton, and last year, gubernatorial nominee David Garcia carried it 52-46 despite losing statewide 56-42.
● MN-03: On Monday, healthcare executive Kendall Qualls announced that he would seek the GOP nod to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Dean Phillips. Qualls touted his upbringing as a "poor black kid from Harlem" and his time in the Army and in business.
NRCC chair Tom Emmer, who represents a nearby seat, recently touted Qualls, but other members of the party don't sound so high on him. Morning Take wrote last week, "Multiple Republican sources say that they had only met Qualls once and that he seemed focused on service but naïve about the task of giving Phillips a tough race." This suburban Twin Cities seat backed Hillary Clinton 51-41, and Phillips unseated five-term incumbent Erik Paulsen 56-44 last year.
Qualls also may not recognize just how big a liability Donald Trump is in this area. Qualls declared that, while his style was "different" from Trump, he would campaign with him if he came to the district. Paulsen fully recognized last year just how toxic Trump was, and according to Politico's Tim Alberta, so did Trump … just not in a way that helped the incumbent.
Alberta writes in his book "American Carnage" that Trump was so upset that Paulsen was distancing himself from the White House that "the president stewed and asked that the political shop send a tweet of support for Paulsen — thereby sabotaging the moderate Republican's efforts."
White House aides were reluctant, though, so Alberta writes that Trump personally tweeted his "'Strong Endorsement!' of the congressman in a late-night post that left Paulsen fuming and his Democratic opponent giddy." Trump may not be that eager to doom his own party here next year, but it's extremely unlikely that Qualls or any other Republican will benefit from any connection to the party's leader.
● NC-09: Advertising Analytics reports that the NRCC has reserved $1.9 million in broadcast TV time for the Sept. 10 special election, and that they'll be launching their first TV spot Wednesday for $157,000.
Meanwhile, Democrat Dan McCready is out with another commercial starring a woman named Ava Williamson talking about how her family was hit with an $8,000 bill after her three-week old son was hospitalized with a fever. Williamson decries how Republican Dan Bishop was the only member of the state Senate who voted no on a bill "that helped families like mine get discounted prescription drugs to help lower bills." She goes on to say, "And now, drug company money is helping his campaign."
● TX-04: There are plenty of Republicans who could run in a special election to succeed GOP Rep. John Ratcliffe if he's confirmed by the U.S. Senate as the new director of national intelligence, and a few have started to express interest. State Sen. Pat Fallon said he was considering just hours after Ratcliffe's nomination was announced, and Rockwall County Commissioner Dennis Bailey also quickly said he was eyeing this safely red northeastern Texas seat.
On Monday evening, the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek listed a number of other Republicans he said were either considering or had not ruled out running. They include state Sens. Bob Hall and Bryan Hughes; state Rep. Justin Holland; and Jason Ross, who works as Ratcliffe's district director. CBS 11 tried contacting Hall and Hughes to ask them about this race, but the senators did not respond.
● TX-06: Freshman GOP Rep. Ron Wright said Monday that he plans to run for re-election even after being diagnosed with lung cancer last year. Wright has been receiving treatment, and he called his prognosis "great."
● TX-11: Politico’s Jake Sherman reported on Tuesday night that GOP Rep. Mike Conaway will not seek a ninth term in Texas’ 11th District, which at 78-19 Trump is one of the reddest seats in the entire country. Conaway, who would be the fourth House Republican to retire in the last eight days, is scheduled to hold a press conference on Wednesday afternoon in Midland on an unidentified topic. Conaway’s seat includes Midland, San Angelo, and Odessa, the setting of “Friday Night Lights.”
● TX-32: On Tuesday, businesswoman Genevieve Collins joined the GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Colin Allred. Collins is an executive at Istation, an education technology company led by her father, and her family has been involved in Dallas politics for decades. Her grandmother, Calvert Keoun Collins, made history in 1957 as the first woman elected to the Dallas County Council, while her great-uncle, James Mitchell Collins, represented part of the area in Congress from 1968 until 1983.
Collins joins retired Navy SEAL Floyd McLendon in the primary, and other Republicans are also giving us more of an idea about their plans. Patrick Svitek writes in the Texas Tribune that former state Rep. Dan Branch is considering and plans to decide in late August. Branch last ran for office in 2014 when he gave up his seat in the legislature to run for attorney general, but he lost the GOP primary runoff to Ken Paxton by a 63-37 margin (McLendon worked as a senior aide to Paxton in the attorney general’s office).
Former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, who now works in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, also has been mentioned as a possible candidate for months, and she finally commented about her interest on Friday. Van Duyne said, “I'm grateful to continue hearing from people who are encouraging me to be a candidate, but I have nothing new to say at this point.” That’s very much not a no, and it may also be all that Van Duyne can say right now about a possible campaign while she remains a government official.
As we’ve noted before, none of Van Duyne’s old Irving base is located in this seat: Most of the city is in Texas' 24th District, which is held by GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant, while the balance is in the safely blue 33rd District. Van Duyne has been talked about as a possible candidate to succeed Marchant if he retires, though that’s still a big if.
● UT-01: GOP Rep. Rob Bishop confirmed he would retire on Monday, and Kaysville Mayor Katie Witt quickly formed an exploratory committee for a possible bid for this safely red northern Utah seat. Witt spent several years living in Colorado, where she ran Mitt Romney’s successful 2008 state caucus campaign and served on the Longmont City Council. Witt relocated back to Utah in 2014, and after an unsuccessful bid for a council seat in Kaysville, she was elected mayor of this 30,000-person community in 2017.
Another Republican who has expressed interest is Morgan County Councilor Tina Cannon. Cannon said Monday that she would decide “[o]ver the next few days.”
● UT-04: Former state GOP communications director Kathleen Anderson is out with a primary poll from the Republican firm Echelon Insights that finds our old friend Unsure dominating the field with 85% of the vote while no human, including Anderson, breaks single digits.
The survey shows former radio host Jay Mcfarland taking 7%, state Rep. Kim Coleman at 3%, Anderson and state Rep. Jefferson Moss tied with 2%, and state Sen. Dan Hemmert at 1%. Anderson is the only one of these candidates who has entered the primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Ben McAdams. One person the release did not mention is former Rep. Mia Love, who says she'll decide soon whether to run again.
We can't recall seeing a poll that showed no one taking double digits, and we're also not sure a candidate has ever released a survey that showed them taking just 2% of the vote. Anderson, though, is arguing that this poll shows that no one would start as the primary frontrunner, and that voters would prefer to nominate "a political outsider with experience outside elected office" over an elected official. Whether Anderson, who held an important post in the state party and whose husband was party chair, can sell herself as a "political outsider" remains to be seen.
Mayoral
● Raleigh, NC Mayor: The filing deadline closed on July 19 in this year's mayoral race in Raleigh, North Carolina’s second-largest and capital city, and, with independent Mayor Nancy McFarlane not seeking a fifth two-year term, the contest is wide open. Infrastructure and affordable housing have been the prevailing issues candidates have focused on in this race, six of whom have filed for the officially nonpartisan election on Oct. 8.
Three contenders have been running since at least March: attorney and 2017 candidate Charles Francis; former Raleigh City Council member Mary-Ann Baldwin; and former Wake County Commissioner Caroline Sullivan. Francis lost to McFarlane in a runoff by a 58-42 margin, the closest election of the incumbent's career. Francis, Baldwin, and Sullivan are all Democrats.
Musician George Knott, attorney Justin Sutton, and 2017 Raleigh City Council candidate Zainab Baloch, meanwhile, are newcomers to the field, all kicking off bids in April or later. Baloch, 27, would be Raleigh’s youngest mayor, in addition to being the first Muslim and woman of color to hold the office.
A major topic on the campaign trail has been the chilly relationship between the City Council and the mayor’s office during McFarlane’s tenure, owing mainly to their divergent ideas on growth policies for the city. McFarlane has championed pro-development policies, such as allowing residents to use their homes for Airbnb rentals, but she’s faced considerable pushback from the Council.
Francis has promised to end the “dysfunction” on the Council, highlighting his close relationships with several members. Baldwin has taken a more hardline approach, publicly criticizing the City Council for its "acrimony" and alleged foot-dragging on key controversies. Sullivan, for her part, has pledged to end the “divisiveness and pettiness” in the city’s politics. The candidates have, however, generally preferred to focus on the poisonous political atmosphere in Raleigh rather than the underlying issues that have caused a split between McFarlane and the Council.
July 26 was the first fundraising deadline, which brings us the first glimpse of which candidates will have the resources to compete in the fall election. The three early entrants led the way, with Sullivan raking in $215,000, Francis bringing in $150,000, and Baldwin collecting $125,000. The rest of the field trailed far behind, with Baloch raising $15,000 and Sutton just $4,500. Knott is not taking money in this election and, as such, did not report any contributions.
This first tier of candidates could be on track to outpace fundraising levels in the most recent mayoral face-off: The News and Observer notes that in 2017, Francis hauled in $300,000 while McFarlane brought in $250,000, all told. With more than two months still to go, there's plenty of time for this year's hopefuls to eclipse those marks.
A majority is needed to win outright in October, and the wide field makes it likely no candidate will meet that threshold. If no one takes more than 50% in the first round of voting, the top two vote getters will advance to a Nov. 5 runoff.
Other Races
● Queens County, NY District Attorney: On Monday, the New York City Board of Elections certified the results of the June 25 Democratic primary, and Queens Borough President Melinda Katz holds a 60-vote lead over public defender Tiffany Cabán. Cabán is not conceding defeat, though, and her team will go to court on Wednesday to argue that 114 affidavit ballots were mistakenly rejected by election officials and should be counted. These ballots include instances where a voter went to the wrong polling place or failed to write the word "Democrat" in the affidavit's party affiliation section.
No one knows how long the court proceedings will take, and the New York Times notes that some New York elections have taken months to conclude. A 2004 battle between GOP state Sen. Nick Spano and Democrat Andrea Stewart-Cousins, for instance, took three months to resolve, and Spano finally emerged with an 18-vote lead in February; Stewart-Cousins unseated him 51-49 in their rematch two years later, and she now serves as the chamber's majority leader.
Grab Bag
● Demographics: You're probably familiar with the race data that you can obtain from the Census, but did you know that there's another deeper level of detail below that? Between the Census's ancestry data, plus specific Native American tribes and specific origins for Asians and Hispanics, you can put together a much more nuanced look at who we are and where we all came from. Unfortunately, that information is scattered across multiple tables on the Census website, but David Jarman aggregated it all into one handy spreadsheet and we've also mapped the CD-level data onto Daniel Donner's new equal-area hexmap.