It wouldn't be August recess if Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wasn't threatening the Senate that it doesn't get recess. But it looks like this time he has a real problem—Republicans. He doesn't want a budget deal to pass with mostly Democratic votes, and Republicans are not making any promises to him that they'll push it over the line for him.
McConnell wants 27 Republicans—a majority—to get to the 60-vote threshold he needs, and some rank-and-file members aren't playing nice. According to Politico, he "delivered a firm message to his caucus on Tuesday during lunch at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, warning them they cannot leave town until the budget and looming debt ceiling deadline has been addressed, according to three sources familiar with the meeting." He told them he'll keep them in until they pass it.
As of now, Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah is a no, joined by Florida Sens. Marco Rubio and Rick Scott. Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, and Sens. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Mike Crapo of Idaho are leaning no. "Colorful" Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana provides a colorful and nonsensical quote: "This thing may taste like pumpkin pie. But I'm not voting for it." There are 16 Republicans on the record supporting this deal, members who signed on to a letter to Trump agreeing to the deal. Because in 2019 senators have to beg the president to responsibly govern. The problem for McConnell is that some of those 16 might now defect, including Crapo, James Lankford of Oklahoma, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Joni Ernst of Iowa and Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Toss into the mix Sens. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Dan Sullivan of Alaska, and Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi, and McConnell has a problem.
For his part, Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York is wondering what the holdup is, since the problem isn't his or the Democrats’ (though he's apparently not volunteering to help by whipping his members). "I believe we should do this today. It's the most important thing we can do. Secretary Mnuchin has said there is a danger to the debt defaulting," he said.
The deal extends the debt ceiling until approximately the end of July 2021. It allows the threat of budget sequesters—automatic cuts when a budget deal isn't reached—to expire. It's a $320 billion spending increase above previously set levels, with parity in domestic and defense spending. The concessions from House Democrats include an agreement not to try to restrict the administration in bills on border spending, a provision that has given Senate Democrats some grief.