The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● OH Supreme Court: On Monday, The Columbus Dispatch reported that former Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and state Judge John O'Donnell will run as Democrats for the two Ohio Supreme Court seats up for election in November 2020, which could have a major impact on redistricting. Ohio Supreme Court candidates run in party primaries but face off in a nonpartisan general election. Brunner indicated that she plans to run against Republican Justice Judith French, and O'Donnell will challenge GOP Justice Sharon Kennedy.
Campaign Action
Brunner had previously won the 2006 election for secretary of state but later lost the 2010 primary for U.S. Senate. However, she has since been elected to the state's 10th District Court of Appeals, serving since 2014. O'Donnell has been running for some time and is making his third attempt at Ohio's high court: He previously lost by just 50.3-49.7 against GOP Justice Patrick Fisher in 2016 even as Trump was winning Ohio by 51-43. In 2014, he lost to French by a wider 56-44 as the Republican wave hit Ohio especially hard, although that was still a narrower margin than every Democrat running statewide for partisan office.
If Democrats win both of these 2020 races, they would gain a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court for the first time since the 1980s. Such a majority would have profound consequences for the upcoming post-2020 redistricting cycle. As we've explained in detail, Ohio's new systems for congressional and legislative redistricting passed since the last round of redistricting still give the Republicans who dominate state government the power to gerrymander again. However, a Democratic state court majority could use state constitutional protections to strike down unfair maps in a way that may be insulated from federal review.
Senate
● CO-Sen: On Sunday, a spokesperson for Rep. Ed Perlmutter confirmed that he would not enter the Democratic primary for Senate. Perlmutter also tweeted that he'd support John Hickenlooper if the former governor decided to challenge GOP Sen. Cory Gardner.
● MA-Sen: Over the weekend, both The New York Times and the Boston Globe reported that Rep. Joe Kennedy III is considering launching a Democratic primary bid against Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey and would decide in "the coming weeks." An unnamed senior Democratic official also confirmed that Kennedy had paid for an unreleased poll testing him against Markey. Markey already faces labor attorney Shannon Liss-Riordan and business executive Steve Pemberton in the primary.
Kennedy's team is not denying that he's interested in taking on the incumbent. Emily Kaufman, Kennedy's spokesperson, said that her boss was seeking re-election "right now," and added, "He's grateful for the recent show of support from folks across Massachusetts."
Politico's Stephanie Murray also reports that there's speculation in Democratic circles that Kennedy is really hoping to pressure Markey, who will be 74 on Election Day, into retiring. However, Markey's team insists that he's going to run for re-election "no matter who enters the race."
Kennedy is a grandson of Robert F. Kennedy and a grandnephew of John F. Kennedy and longtime Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy, and he was mentioned as a rising star in Democratic politics even before he was elected to the House in 2012. Kennedy is well-connected, and he ended June with a small $4.2 million to $4.1 million cash-on-hand edge over Markey.
However, Markey has plenty of prominent Bay State Democrats on his side, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren. On Monday, after days of chatter about Kennedy's prospective Senate campaign, Markey released a video where Warren declared, "I've got his back, and I know that he will always have yours. Let's get Ed Markey re-elected to the Senate." And while Boston Mayor Marty Walsh didn't quite rule out running here in the early summer, he said Sunday that he was supporting Markey.
Kennedy may also not be the only high-profile House member eyeing this race or a possible 2021 special election to succeed Warren if she's elected president or joins a Democratic administration. The New York Times writes that freshman Rep. Ayanna Pressley "is widely thought to also be eying a Senate bid, whether if against Mr. Markey or if Ms. Warren were to be elected president." Pressley herself hasn't said anything about challenging Markey, though like Kennedy, she hasn't endorsed the senator's re-election campaign.
Gubernatorial
● LA-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards' latest ad praises him for expanding Medicaid. The commercial stars a woman identified as Cindy describing how she was working full-time when she was diagnosed with lung cancer, and, "When the doctors visits and treatments got too expensive I had to put them on a credit card and my children started paying my bills because I couldn't work enough." Cindy then tells the audience, "Then, Governor Edwards expanded Medicaid. Suddenly, I didn't have to choose between getting treatment or going bankrupt."
Meanwhile, Edwards' allies at Gumbo PAC, which is funded by the DGA, have slightly reworked their recent ad attacking wealthy GOP businessman Eddie Rispone. The original version of the commercial claimed that Rispone had repeatedly failed to pay his employees or their medical bills, while the new spot clarifies that the Republican has been "sued time and again" for this. The Advocate recently wrote that these lawsuits against Rispone's company were settled, and his campaign says these allegations were never proven.
● MS-Gov: Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves is out with two more commercials attacking former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr. ahead of next week's GOP primary runoff.
The first ad begins with the narrator explaining that, while both Republicans are "good men," only Waller wants to raise the gas tax. The narrator also hits Waller for wanting to expand Medicaid to Mississippi, declaring, "Bill Waller would expand Obamacare in our state. Three hundred thousand more people on welfare." She also praises Reeves for wanting to use "lottery receipts" to pay for road repair.
The second ad features a reporter telling Waller, "You have a couple of ideas that some conservatives may have trouble wrapping their arms around," to which Waller responds, "Right." The reporter continues by describing one of ideas as "raising the gasoline tax," and Waller again says, "Right."
The interviewer continues by saying Waller's positions include "possibly expanding Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act," and Waller once again agrees, "Right." When the reporter asks, "Medicaid expansion could add 300,000 people or so to the rolls. How do you justify that?" Waller begins, "I think we have to do it," but Reeves' spot cuts him off there. Instead, the narrator interrupts, "Bill Waller wants to raise taxes and expand Obamacare. No wonder the press says Bill Waller is sounding ... liberal."
● NC-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Dan Forest went up with his first TV spot Monday. Forest speaks to the camera and lays out his conservative beliefs, which includes supporting Donald Trump. There is no word on the size of the buy.
● WV-Gov: Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin told CBS on Sunday that he'd decide whether to run for governor "basically right after Labor Day." Manchin didn't indicate whether he was leaning towards staying in the Senate or seeking his old job, saying, "I've had a lot of inquiries they want me to come back home. I have people think that maybe I should stay and I've had it both ways."
House
● NC-09: The radical anti-tax Club for Growth is spending $413,000 on a new TV campaign against Democrat Dan McCready ahead of the Sept. 10 special election.
The narrator declares that McCready has "taken thousands in campaign money from eco-extremist groups that back the Green New Deal." As the narrator speaks, the ad reveals that these organizations are … The League of Conservation Voters, Environment America, and the Sierra Club. Of course, any group that advocates environmental protection almost certainly comes across as extreme to the Club. The commercial continues by connecting McCready to New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, with the narrator calling the Green New Deal "AOC's scheme."
Republican Dan Bishop and the NRCC are also out with a joint ad buy that continues Bishop's own xenophobic campaign pitch. The spot begins with a clip of Donald Trump lying at a rally, "The Democrats want to spend more money on health care for an illegal immigrant than they do for a citizen." The narrator then insists, "Dan McCreedy, supported by liberal Democrats pushing free health care for illegals."
The spot goes back to Trump proclaiming, "You can't say you love our country if you want to destroy it through open borders." The narrator then jumps back in, "Dan McCreedy opposed Trump's wall and called him a threat to democracy."
● NM-02: Oil businesswoman Claire Chase has been considering seeking the GOP nod to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small for a while, and lobbyist Leland Gould recently emailed friends that she'd announce her bid this week.
● NY-19: Earlier this month, fashion designer Ola Hawatmeh joined the GOP primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado. Chronogram.com's Andrew Solender writes that Hawatmeh grew up in Poughkeepsie, which is located just outside this seat in the 18th District, but she moved to St. Louis in 1999 and only relocated back to the Hudson Valley last month.
Anthony German, a former New York National Guard adjutant general, is already running, and other Republicans might be interested. Solender mentions Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who was the 2018 GOP nominee for governor, as a possibility, and he didn't say no. Molinaro, who is running for a fourth term this November, instead only said, "I have one focus—re-election." Solender also name-drops state Sen. Sue Serino and Rensselaer County Executive Steven McLaughlin as possibilities, and neither of them responded for comment.
● NY-27: On Saturday, state Sen. Robert Ortt launched a GOP primary bid against indicted Rep. Chris Collins. Ortt, an Army National Guard veteran who earned a Bronze Star in Afghanistan, claimed, "Like President Trump, I've personally been the target of a partisan witch hunt led by my political opponents."
Back in 2017, then-state Attorney General Eric Schneiderman charged Ortt with being part of a scheme to secure his wife a no-show job. However, a judge dropped the indictment three months later, saying, "There was no valid line of reasoning and permissible inferences which could lead a rational grand juror to issue an indictment in this case." Ortt had no trouble getting re-elected the following year in the 62nd Senate District, which makes up about a quarter of the 27th Congressional District.
Fellow state Sen. Chris Jacobs and attorney Beth Parlato previously kicked off their own primary bids against Collins, who is scheduled to stand trial in February on insider trading charges. Collins says he'll announce whether he'll run for re-election before the end of the year. Ortt refrained from criticizing the incumbent, saying instead that he felt he'd "done a great job supporting the president" but "hasn't made his plans known as to what he is going to do."
● PA-08: Former GOP Rep. Lou Barletta is once again sounding very reluctant to challenge Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright, though he still didn't completely rule it out. Barletta, who was his party's 2018 Senate nominee, recently told The Patriot-News, "There is no motivation" for running for the House again, and he added, "I think more people are interested in me running than I am." Still, Barletta added, "I'll never close the door but it's not something I'm looking to do."
Legislative
● Special Elections: After a two-month hiatus since the last legislative special election pitting a Democratic candidate against a Republican one, there are two on tap for Tuesday, one in Pennsylvania and one in South Carolina.
PA-HD-85: This is a Republican district in central Pennsylvania located in the Lewisburg area. This seat became vacant after former state Rep. Fred Keller was elected to the U.S. House in a special election earlier this year. As always in Pennsylvania special elections, the candidates were chosen by the parties. (Helpfully, Ballotpedia recently published a list explaining the selection methods for nominees in each of the 25 states that hold special elections for legislative vacancies.)
The Democratic nominee is physician Jennifer Rager-Kay and the Republican is East Buffalo Township Supervisor David Rowe. Rager-Kay was the Democratic nominee for this seat in 2018, where she lost to Keller 68-32. While Rager-Kay has sought to strike a moderate tone on issues such as gun safety, this will once again be a difficult matchup for her in a district Donald Trump carried 65-32 and Mitt Romney won 63-35.
SC-HD-19: This is a Republican district located in the Greenville area. This special election is the culmination of a chain of events that was set off by former state Sen. William Timmons' election to the U.S. House last year. Following the midterms, Republican state Rep. Dwight Loftis, who had represented this seat since 1996, defeated Democrat Tina Belge in a surprisingly competitive special election earlier this year to take over Timmons' state Senate seat.
Now, Democrat Carrie Counton and Republican Patrick Haddon are facing off to replace Loftis. Counton is a higher-education academic coach and Haddon is the former Greenville County GOP chair. Counton ran for this seat in 2018, losing to Loftis 61-39, while back in 2008, Haddon was a candidate in the Republican primary for the state Senate seat Loftis now represents.
As we've seen in other special elections that have taken place in early presidential primary states, the Democratic nominee here is receiving help from at least one White House hopeful, though the bigger names don't appear to have gotten involved. Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton stumped for Counton in June and will be campaigning with her the district on Election Day.
Counton has also attacked Haddon for an ethics violation he committed in the early 2010s. On multiple occasions in 2011 and 2012, while a board member of the Parker Sewer and Fire District, Haddon had maintenance work performed on his personal vehicles in the district's repair shop. Haddon admitted wrongdoing and was fined for the violation.
This is a deeply Republican district that supported Trump 60-35 and Romney 63-35.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: Kathleen Blanco, a Democrat who made history in 2003 when she became the first woman to be elected governor of Louisiana, died Sunday at the age of 76. Blanco was in charge when Hurricane Katrina devastated the state in 2005, and she did not seek a second term in 2007. We take a look at her upset win, as well as the changing attitudes about her performance during and after Katrina, in our obituary.
Blanco faced a tough 2003 battle against Republican Bobby Jindal, who would have made history as the first governor of Indian descent of any U.S. state. Blanco’s internal polls reportedly showed her narrowly trailing in the homestretch, but she may have turned the race around in a debate three days before the election.
When the candidates were asked to identify a defining moment in their lives, Blanco told the audience, “The most defining moment came when I lost a child.” As she fought back tears, she talked about how her 19-year-old son died in an accident six years before when an industrial crane crushed him. Blanco ended up beating Jindal 52-48.
Blanco’s approval ratings never recovered from Hurricane Katrina, and she was widely blamed nationally and at home for Louisiana’s response to the crisis. Blanco decided not to run again in 2007, and Jindal had no trouble winning the race to succeed her. However, in recent years, she’s earned belated praise for her performance during and after Katrina. Some of her critics have also admitted that they’d judged her unfairly, perhaps in no small part due to her gender. Check out our obituary for more.
